a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/04/15/1081998278985.html
Any one taking any bets on this prediction?
Any one taking any bets on this prediction?
Scientist Claims to be able to Predict Earthquakes
- Thread starter a_unique_person
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MRC_Hans
Penultimate Amazing
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I guess this is going to be like weather: The better we understand the mechanisms, and the more complete data we can collect, the better we will be at predicting, but its gonna foil us from time to time, nevertheless.
Obviously, even a fairly good quake prediction could save lots of lives.
Hans
Obviously, even a fairly good quake prediction could save lots of lives.
Hans
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
I don't know how it can save lives. Is everyone going to move out of California?
I suspect that when geologists say that California is going to fall into the sea "quickly" that it is quick in geological terms. So we are talking perhaps hundreds of thousands of years here, not minutes or hours. Of course there will be rumblings and more earthquakes of various sizes from now until then - it's a subduction zone! What did you expect?!
MRC_Hans
Penultimate Amazing
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AUP, no I expect they will do nothing. And after it hapens (if it happens) there will be hearings of why they didn't and conspiract theories, etc.
But, once predictions get good enough, people are going to heed them, like they do with hurricane warnings on the east cost.
And no they won't move out of California, because an effective warning system will make it safer to live in a quake zone. ....But they might go visit frieds in Texas when a biggie is due
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Hans
But, once predictions get good enough, people are going to heed them, like they do with hurricane warnings on the east cost.
And no they won't move out of California, because an effective warning system will make it safer to live in a quake zone. ....But they might go visit frieds in Texas when a biggie is due
.Hans
MRC_Hans said:And no they won't move out of California, because an effective warning system will make it safer to live in a quake zone. ....But they might go visit frieds in Texas when a biggie is due
Why would that be safer than experiencing an earthquake?
CFLarsen said:
Why would that be safer than experiencing an earthquake?
Similar to boarding up houses when a hurricane is pending. You can make sure heavy objects are not on high shelves, strap down the water heater, turn off unneeded pilot lights, etc.
Plus stock up on supplies.
Bikewer
Penultimate Amazing
I well remember the hoopla accompanying the last "predictor", a fellow by the name of Browning. Set off massive training for all area police/fire agencies to prepare for the New Madrid Fault's pending upheaval.
It never happened, and Browning died.
Perhaps this guy has better data.....
It never happened, and Browning died.
Perhaps this guy has better data.....
ps to previous post.... except in the north , where the Cascade Volcanoes are related to subduction of the JdF plate.
The transform activity round LA /SF is due to rotation of the Pacific plate relative to the N.AM Plate , which isprobably over-riding the Pacific spreading ridge and...OK, it's a subduction zone! The hell with it!
The transform activity round LA /SF is due to rotation of the Pacific plate relative to the N.AM Plate , which isprobably over-riding the Pacific spreading ridge and...OK, it's a subduction zone! The hell with it!
Hand Bent Spoon
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You people aren't actually buying this, are you? It's utter crap.
Hand Bent Spoon said:
I am not a geologist. Why is it "utter crap?" Overall, serious scientists have been trying to do this very thing for years. Is it crap to think someone might have succeeded at last? Or is it crap to do the research at all?
Seriously. I don't understand what you mean here.
Correa Neto
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Some time ago geologists managed to send warnings about earthquakes in the west Anatolia fault, a transcurrent fault not exactly unlike San Andreas. And the earthquakes do happened. The basis was the propagation of stress along the fault, as its segments moved (and locked) and earthquake epicentres moved along. Now, if predicting a date with such accuracy is possible, well, that's another story...
The fact is that there are a lot of boundary conditions (underground water pressure, rock types, movment rates, geothermal gradients, etc.) that are particular to each fault zone, and a method used in Turkey may not work well for California. I think that eventually, it may be possible to release earthquake forecasts in the future.
The fact is that there are a lot of boundary conditions (underground water pressure, rock types, movment rates, geothermal gradients, etc.) that are particular to each fault zone, and a method used in Turkey may not work well for California. I think that eventually, it may be possible to release earthquake forecasts in the future.
Uh, oh. I just read in today's paper that Keilis-Borok's team successfully predicted the 6.5 quake last year at San Simeon and the 8.1 quake off the coast of Japan.
Other scientists are taking this seriously, albeit with caution.
"Utter crap" is definitely not appropriate here.
Other scientists are taking this seriously, albeit with caution.
"Utter crap" is definitely not appropriate here.
Although the field of earthquake prediction has had many failures and its share of woo woos claiming all sorts of things can predict earthquakes (like lost pet reports), the field does have a real scientific base.
And this method has some promise. In a multidisciplinary approach they have used pattern recognition techniques on historical seismic data to identify 4 patterns in the small daily earthquakes that seem to be useful in predicting events. But the prediction is still general, of the type "there's a 50% chance of a magnitude 6.4 or greater eatrhquake in the next 6 months within an area or several thousand square miles".
They are a bit secretive, however. They claim to have predicted 2 previous quakes and have published a prediction for a quake in the next 6 months in the southern California desert. They claim to have several other predictions, but will not release the prediction until it happens or the window passes. This seemed a bit odd. I think they are just being conservative, both because the technique\theory needs more testing and because they don't want to alarm people in populated areas. They released the current prediction because it is a mostly unpopulated area.
The stress propagation technique Correa Neto mentioned has also had some success. It is more exact in predicting locations, but less exact temporally.
Perhaps combining the two techniques will be fruitful. Only time will tell.
And this method has some promise. In a multidisciplinary approach they have used pattern recognition techniques on historical seismic data to identify 4 patterns in the small daily earthquakes that seem to be useful in predicting events. But the prediction is still general, of the type "there's a 50% chance of a magnitude 6.4 or greater eatrhquake in the next 6 months within an area or several thousand square miles".
They are a bit secretive, however. They claim to have predicted 2 previous quakes and have published a prediction for a quake in the next 6 months in the southern California desert. They claim to have several other predictions, but will not release the prediction until it happens or the window passes. This seemed a bit odd. I think they are just being conservative, both because the technique\theory needs more testing and because they don't want to alarm people in populated areas. They released the current prediction because it is a mostly unpopulated area.
The stress propagation technique Correa Neto mentioned has also had some success. It is more exact in predicting locations, but less exact temporally.
Perhaps combining the two techniques will be fruitful. Only time will tell.
patnray said:
The article I just read (from Associated Press) said the "secretive" issue was because they are not certain they are correct (good scientific method there) and don't want to panic people based on predictions they themselves are not sure about. I suspect that if their predictions continue to come true, they will start releasing additional predictions. I think they are doing the right thing at this early stage.