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SARS mortality rate estimated 20%

  • Thread starter Thread starter DrBenway
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Here's a more detailed article from the WHO website which says...
WHO now estimates that the case fatality ratio of SARS ranges from 0% to 50% depending on the age group affected, with an overall estimate of case fatality of 14% to 15%
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and...
the case fatality ratio is estimated to be less than 1% in persons aged 24 years or younger, 6% in persons aged 25 to 44 years, 15% in persons aged 45 to 64 years, and greater than 50% in persons aged 65 years and older.
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This is consistent with the latest numbers recorded by the WHO which show 495 deaths and 2885 recoveries - about 14.6% fatality ratio.

Though the WHO article discusses the problems involved in calculating an accurate fatality ratio, it doesn't mention an important point that was covered in the BBC article posted by DrBenway...
Experts do not yet know whether there have been large numbers of Sars-infected patients who recovered in their homes without ever being admitted to hospital - which would reduce the overall death rate.
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I'm skeptical of that 20% statistic. How was it derived? i suspect they only sampled people sick enough to be in the hospital. Many could have had it and not even bothered to go to the doctor.
I say this because it was only a week or two ago that the virus was identified, to get a true estimate of the death rate you would have to test many thousands of the general population, find out how many were exposed to the virus (by analyzing anti-bodies), then figure out how many of those got sick and subsequently died. Until such a study can be carried out it's all speculation.
 
DrBenway said:
Well, this is depressing


from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/2992749.stm
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unless I missed it , no mention of the survival rate differential in say Hong Kong or a Chinese city versus say Toronto.

Does the quality and access to health care has any bearing on the survival? Early detection and public education on SARS have no bearing?

What is the survival rate in China and how do the limits of a public health response affect survival compared to efforts in Hong Kong or Toronto?
 
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