Problem with Pascal's Wager

[Dorian Gray]

Simply put, it's this:

While it may be a decent argument for who you should believe in God, it doesn't tell you WHICH God to believe in. In other words, you could be a Pascal acolyte who is a devout Christian, yet still go to hell because you didn't believe in Thor.

 

[billydkid]

Simply put, it's this:

While it may be a decent argument for who you should believe in God, it doesn't tell you WHICH God to believe in. In other words, you could be a Pascal acolyte who is a devout Christian, yet still go to hell because you didn't believe in Thor.

Yes, we've talked about he wager a number of times. Pascal's is a lame-ass wager.

 

[TragicMonkey]

I never thought Pascal was being entirely serious when he proposed it. Perhaps it was satire?

 

[Iacchus]

Simply put, it's this:

While it may be a decent argument for who you should believe in God, it doesn't tell you WHICH God to believe in. In other words, you could be a Pascal acolyte who is a devout Christian, yet still go to hell because you didn't believe in Thor.

Well, as I understand it, God is not looking for conscripts.

 

[clarsct]

Huh?

'God' has been bullying humans into accepting his unfounded premises for centuries! He even set Satan up as a fall guy for it!

These religious types don't seem to be above ANY underhanded trick...

 

[Tricky]

Simply put, it's this:

While it may be a decent argument for who you should believe in God, it doesn't tell you WHICH God to believe in. In other words, you could be a Pascal acolyte who is a devout Christian, yet still go to hell because you didn't believe in Thor.

Indeed, it boils down to this:

If you believe that Christianity is correct about God, then you should believe in Christianity. Duh.

If you do proper substitutions, comparing the versions of the afterlife described by various religions, then it comes down to, "To take the best odds for a good afterlife, you should believe in the religion that has the worst concept of hell for nonbelievers," or perhaps, "You should believe in the religion with the most vindictive God."

 

[Iacchus]

Huh?

'God' has been bullying humans into accepting his unfounded premises for centuries! He even set Satan up as a fall guy for it!

These religious types don't seem to be above ANY underhanded trick...

Really? He doesn't bully me around. It is people who bully people, not God. Whereas Satan is another word for "man gone to hell." So, it is possible, contingent upon what we think, say and do, to be in league with Satan. Why do you think Christ referred to Peter as Satan at one point, right after He promises Peter the keys to the Kingdom? Simply because Peter was being illogical and selfish. ~ Matthew 16:13-23

 

[Iacchus]

If you do proper substitutions, comparing the versions of the afterlife described by various religions, then it comes down to, "To take the best odds for a good afterlife, you should believe in the religion that has the worst concept of hell for nonbelievers," or perhaps, "You should believe in the religion with the most vindictive God."

How so, because you enjoy feeling "vindictive" as well?

 

[Elind]

I never thought Pascal was being entirely serious when he proposed it. Perhaps it was satire?

I agree. Pascal (he is the mathematician, isn't he?) was too smart to fall for such a trivial proposal. The flaw is that it doesn't assume God (capitalized), but a very specifically petty god. You could, conceivably, believe in a god which wouldn't be such a petty little dickhead, and the wager becomes meaningless.

 

[Kopji]

I'd call Pascal a 'true believer'. It is not my place to say he might have had bipolar or something similar, but his writing is compelled. Similar to an artist that must paint or a writer that must write. The words below are attributed to him, from a personal experience he wrote down and sewed into his coat. It was called the 'night of fire'.

http://www.mathpages.com/home/kmath558/kmath558.htm

Fire.
The God of Abraham, the God of Isaac, the God of Jacob.
Not of the philosophers and intellectuals.
Certitude, certitude, feeling, joy, peace.
The God of Jesus Christ.
My God and your God [in Latin, accusative case].
Your God will be my God.
Forgetfulness of the world and of everything except God.
One finds oneself only by way of the directions taught
in the gospel.

The grandeur of the human soul.
Oh just Father, the world has not known you,
but I have known you.

Joy, joy,,, joy, tears of joy.
I have separated myself from him.______________
They have abandoned me, the fountain of living water [in Latin].
My God, will you leave me?
May I not be separated from him eternally.
This is eternal life, that they know you the one true God
and J.C. whom you have sent.

Jesus Christ.____________________
Jesus Christ.______________

I have separated myself from him. I have run away from him,
renounced him, crucified him.

May I never be separated from him._______________

I have a copy of Penses (The Thoughts), which contains the wager among other religious writings of Pascal. It is not satire, but reflects the same kind of 'bandage over the eyes' characteristic that fervent believers share.

As far as I know he abandoned science and math... and went off to flog and pray and discuss scripture somewhere.

 

[Hawk one]

And when Pascal died, his soul woke up in a hall, bound, gagged, and surrounded by gods from all pantheons. And in their hands, there were instruments that to Pascal did not at all look pleasant. And Zeus grabbed him by the hair and said "We'll show you what we think of Mister Smartypants in this place..."


With apologies to Terry Pratchett.

 

[c4ts]

Simply put, it's this:

While it may be a decent argument for who you should believe in God, it doesn't tell you WHICH God to believe in. In other words, you could be a Pascal acolyte who is a devout Christian, yet still go to hell because you didn't believe in Thor.

Yeah. My whole "This Was Your Life" parody came from that, also the fact that Pascal doesn't explain what it means to "wager" for God, and his vague use of infinity. And then it was deleted in the Great Re-Bugging (a.k.a. the forum upgrade).

Luckily, I saved this one to work on as an outline for a redrawn parody...

(A fabulously well-to-do middle-class citizen sits on the couch, reading the paper, smoking his corncob pipe. The Grim Reaper shows up behind him.)
REAPER: So I was in the neighborhood when I heard you had heart problems.
MAN: What heart problems?
(The reaper touches him and the man suddenly dies of a heart attack.)
REAPER: I love this job.

(The funeral takes place above the man's buried corpse.)
MOURNER: He was a good man...

(Voice sample from Altered Beast: "Rise from your grave!")

(The man ascends from the grave, completely nude. He is carried up to Heaven.)
MAN: Wait, what's happening? Whose idea was it to fly me around in front of everybody with no clothes on?
(An angel greets him)
ANGEL: Come, you have an appointment.
MAN: Judgement? Oh no!

(They fly through space)
MAN: Oh look, there's heaven, there's purgatory, and that's hell.
ANGEL: There is your destination!
MAN: Wait, I've never seen that place before... Ack! I'm being kidnapped!

(They sit down on a bench in a waiting room.)
???: Next!

(The man is brought into Hyper Nonsense World, before the throne of Elzoob!)
MAN: Wait, what is this, who are you?
ANGEL: I have no f***in' clue. In you go!

(He kicks the man into a movie theater.)

ELZOOB: REVIEW HIS LIFE!!!
(The man sees himself on screen as a baby.)
MAN: Oh, there I am as a baby.
ANGEL: Violation number one! Here you are using three of your eleven fingers when we specified twenty-two!

MAN: But I'm sleeping in that shot!
ANGEL: You should have thought about that before you decided to touch your right elbow with the palm of your right hand!

MAN: But...
ANGEL: There you are as a teenager. Can you see what you are doing wrong?
MAN (on screen): ...I'm going to tell you about the dirtiest story...
MAN: Uh... I'm telling rude jokes.
ANGEL: Wrong! You're spending time with friends when you should be off shocking your own balls and rubbing Tabasco sauce into your eyes while speaking backwards in Mandarin Chinese!
MAN: WHAT??
(A montage follows. The sins described are: Wearing a Red Shirt on Tuesday, Playing Basketball at Exactly 2:04 p.m, Putting Shoe on Foot Instead of Head, Parallel Parking at Less Than 200 mph, Looking Out of an Airplane Window while in Taxicab, Picking Nose Without Teleportation Attempt, Ignoring the Remote Possibility of Rocket Teeth Implants, Appearing Nude With Clothes On, Refusing Sex With Linguini, Failure to Tape Live Rodent to Forehead in Glorious Combat, Speaking to Rotarians Who Wear Socks, etc...)
MAN: Why didn't someone warn me about all this?
(Eventually, the screen shows the man eating soup. He hangs the spoon on his nose.)
MAN: Look, there I am at the age of 30 doing something asinine. See? Isn't that what you want?
ANGEL: We shall see. Here you are with a bowl of alphabet soup!
MAN: Oh, you have something against that too? Why wasn't I warned of this evil?
ANGEL: No! You were doing the right thing, but Elzoob sent you everything you needed to know in that bowl and instead you ATE IT!! You defiled Elzoob's scrambled message! And here you are 24 years before that, throwing away the official decoder ring!
MAN: That's me petting a dog.
ANGEL: Don't you see?? The dog was the ring, and you threw it away!
MAN (crying): Oh no, what can I say? Without Elzoob I'm lost! Lost without hope! I'm a guilty parasite! Guilty!
(Suddenly they're back in the throne room.)
ELZOOB: Turn on my Pocket Secretary and check my to-do list!
(The angel checks it.)
ANGEL: His name does not appear when we apply the DaVinci Code and reverse the order of the letters.
ELZOOB: Throw him into the Sumo Pit!
MAN: No! No!
(The angel throws him into the Sumo Pit)
MAN: Noooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!

THIS CAN BE YOUR LIFE

Unless...

(Shot of the man running through the middle of freeway traffic, leeches all over his body, stabbing himself in the eardrum with a letter opener. He high-fives the Grim Reaper and goes to Hyper Nonsense World.)
ELZOOB: Well done, my servant. You get a free pass to Plastic Happy World. Have a nice day.

ELZOOB SAYS THERE IS ONLY ONE WAY INTO PLASTIC HAPPY WORLD!!!

Just follow these simple directions:

1. iasdfjadsidsanhioasfjkmzvcxuiseuiowefjk
2. iuasuhadbhjismcykaonfgyskjdmasufk
3. ufadndkxcuyskaogtdjhyasksynehydfrsjgnsikaujftrfksu

4. aaawkapfhyrmsowutyjdygnjsypagppfsency
5. wjgyrysjhhyuaaofjakhuoooxhrfauooodofgjaldlee

Not my best, but according to Pascal, you'd better wager for Elzoob unless you want to get pressed flat by sweaty fat people in diapers who sit on you for eternity!

 

[cyborg]

How so, because you enjoy feeling "vindictive" as well?

I'm going to try to make it easy for one of such limited imagination as yourself.

One of these people may or may not exist.

Person A will kick you in the groin if you don't worship him.

Person B will cut your balls off if you don't worship him.

Whom do you worship?

 

[Iacchus]

I'm going to try to make it easy for one of such limited imagination as yourself.

One of these people may or may not exist.

Person A will kick you in the groin if you don't worship him.

Person B will cut your balls off if you don't worship him.

Whom do you worship?

And such are the "ways of man."

 

[Dr Adequate]

Pascal's Wager covered on the skepticwiki.

 

[richardm]

Really? He doesn't bully me around.

He doesn't bully you because you're in his gang already. But he threatens people who don't join him with furnaces of fire and an eternity of weeping and gnashing of teeth. And he probably slaps the angels' legs with wet towels when they're getting changed for PE.

 

[Abdul Alhazred]

Pascal's wager as presented by modern day Christian apologists is an over simplified version.

Pascal split up the possible belief systems as follows, thinking he had covered all bases:

1) Classical Paganism
2) Judaism
3) Islam
4) Philosophy (not per se atheism)
5) Christianity

He presents reasonable detailed arguments against the first three before proposing his wager.

It actually makes interesting reading.

 

[Diamond]

*ahem*This is covered on the wiki article*ahem*

 

[Iacchus]

He doesn't bully you because you're in his gang already. But he threatens people who don't join him with furnaces of fire and an eternity of weeping and gnashing of teeth. And he probably slaps the angels' legs with wet towels when they're getting changed for PE.

Actually, God's fierceness has just about everything to do with who is interpreting it. For example, what's the difference between the scorching heat of the desert and a lush green meadow in the woods? Indeed, both are a result of their relationship with the sun, and yet, the sun remains constant in either case. So, who does one blame, if one finds oneself "burning" in hell?

 

[cyborg]

And such are the "ways of man."

And such are the ways of Iacchus that he'll make some lame ass psuedo-intellectual statement rather than answer a simple question.