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Post-election troubles in Ukraine

Chaos

Penultimate Amazing
Joined
Sep 15, 2003
Messages
10,611
Just when I thought the US election was about as contested and divisive as elections can be, I hear all this stuff about the elections in Ukraine.

Ukraine held presidential election on October 31st, two days before US elections - which might be why they didn´t attract much attention even though the mud-slinging exceeded even US levels - for example the opposition candidate, Yushchenko, accused supporters of the current president´s chosen successorm, Yanukovych, of poisoning him.

Elections didn´t produce a clear winner. Yushchenko and Yanukovych scored 39.8% and 39.3%, respectively, but they´d have needed 50+% to instantly win the elections.

So run-off elections were held last Sunday, November 21st. Both elections came with massive protests of election fraud coming from the opposition and Western European observers, while government officials and observers from Russia and other ex-Soviet countries denied that any irregularities had taken place.

Officially, Yanukovych, who is also Putin´s preferred candidate, clearly won the run-off elections. The supporters of Yushchenko, who is more of a pro-Western politician, are protesting in the streets of Kiev - at least 100,000 of them.

This afternoon, between lectures, I talk about this with my Ukrainian co-student. She tells me she talked to her mother, who still lives in Kiev, last evening; her mother painted a very alarming picture of the Ukraine right now:
She said that security forces - I am not sure if she meant police or some other force - are cordoning off Kiev and stopping traffic from western Ukraine, where Yushchenko enjoys a lot of support, from entering the city. Protests in Kiev are peaceful so far, but it seems people are getting angrier and angrier.
More alarmingly, several districts, mostly in Western Ukraine, have refused to accept the election results, and have proclaimed Yushchenko to be the new president. There are also rumors that units of the military and security forces have started proclaiming their loyalty to either Yushchenko or Yanukovych. My co-student says there is the very serious possibility that civil war will break out.

For my part, I don´t know what to think of this. Except, of course, to be worried. If memory serves me, Ukraine retained some the nuclear weapons of the Soviet arsenal, and who knows what might happen to these if things come to blows...
 
Clearly Bev Harris is needed there right away! I'm all for her going to help figure out what happened.
 
Chaos said:
More alarmingly, several districts, mostly in Western Ukraine, have refused to accept the election results, and have proclaimed Yushchenko to be the new president.


As I pointed out in my own superior yet sadly ignored thread on this subject (:D) Yushchenko himself has taken an illegitimate oath proclaiming himself to be president, so I think that if parts of the country are also standing behind him in that then civil war could be on the cards, unless the other guy sees sense.


For my part, I don´t know what to think of this. Except, of course, to be worried. If memory serves me, Ukraine retained some the nuclear weapons of the Soviet arsenal, and who knows what might happen to these if things come to blows...

I'm pretty sure that the Ukraine gave up all of its nuclear weapons under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
 
Re: Re: Post-election troubles in Ukraine

richardm said:
I'm pretty sure that the Ukraine gave up all of its nuclear weapons under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

NIC report on Status of Former Soviet Nuclear Issues


From the report:

"Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Moscow has consolidated all nuclear weapons of the former Soviet stockpile into storage sites in Russia. We assess that by June 1992, the last of the former Soviet tactical nuclear warheads were withdrawn to Russia, and that by the end of 1996, the last of the strategic nuclear warheads had been removed from Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and Belarus."
 
Chaos said:


Officially, Yanukovych, who is also Putin´s preferred candidate, clearly won the run-off elections. The supporters of Yushchenko, who is more of a pro-Western politician, are protesting in the streets of Kiev - at least 100,000 of them.

This afternoon, between lectures, I talk about this with my Ukrainian co-student. She tells me she talked to her mother, who still lives in Kiev, last evening; her mother painted a very alarming picture of the Ukraine right now:
She said that security forces - I am not sure if she meant police or some other force - are cordoning off Kiev and stopping traffic from western Ukraine, where Yushchenko enjoys a lot of support, from entering the city. Protests in Kiev are peaceful so far, but it seems people are getting angrier and angrier.



I wonder if we might see a Czechoslovakian type divorce between the ukrainian speaking west and the russian speaking east. It would certainly make integration into the EU easier.

Given that Putin seems to be attempting to recreate an authoritarian state it is hard to see any long term advantages for the Ukraine in reestablishing close links with Russia.
 
Re: Re: Post-election troubles in Ukraine

Nikk said:
I wonder if we might see a Czechoslovakian type divorce between the ukrainian speaking west and the russian speaking east. It would certainly make integration into the EU easier.

Though probably bloodier... :(
 
I've visited Kiev twice and i have come to like the city and the people that live there. I REALLY hope they pull it off. I was there for the "Europe Day" celebrations in May and the whole city was partying. The people i met very much wanted to get their country more oriented against the west but unfortunately a large part of the goverment more like the old fashioned "Russian Style" leadership.

Last news i just had is that there have been TV shots of iron-clubs being handed out to pro-goverment citizens. Apparently the president hesitates putting in police to squash the rebellion and wants his "fans" to do the dirty work instead. I sincerely hope the best.:(
 
Well, the Ukranian election commission has just announced that the PM won the election.

So now I guess we wait and see...
 
... and with up to 100,000 people out on the streets for the last three days, the electoral commission took all of three-quarters of an hour to decide everything was kosher. :nope:

And some of those 100,000 people have started to march towards the building where the commission reported. I do hope it stays peaceful.
 
Re: Re: Re: Post-election troubles in Ukraine

Kodiak said:
Though probably bloodier... :(

Questionable. The Ukranian militry are in suprisingly good shape considering. While they would probably adopt soviet tacits and fight in the cities I doubt that they would go in for delibrately targeting civilians. Exactly what would happen would depend on how the militry split in particular I suspect the airforce would be quite significant.
 
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10212-2004Nov24.html
In a news briefing at the State Department, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell delivered a sharp rebuke to the Ukrainian authorities who today declared Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych the winner of a run-off election Sunday that Ukrainian protesters and foreign observers said was marred by fraud.

"We cannot accept this result as legitimate, because it does not meet international standards and because there has not been an investigation of the numerous and credible reports of fraud and abuse," Powell said.

His comments came shortly after Ukraine's Central Elections Commission announced that Yanukovych, whose candidacy was backed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, won the run-off with 49.5 percent of the vote, defeating pro-Western opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko, who was said to have received 46.6 percent. Exit polls on election day had put Yushchenko well ahead, and U.S. and European election observers said there were widespread irregularities.

Ow! My irony!
 
Been brewing for years this one.

Similar demos back in 2001 amounted to not very much, although in those days Mr Yushchenko was still a loyal PM, despite opposition calls for him to lead them westward.
Young people in the Ukraine don't seem to be too keen on being Kremlin playthings...I wonder how long it will take for them to get sick of the alternative.
Poles went full circle in around a decade, although I suppose it depends on whether you've got money to throw around as to whether you want the clock turned back.

As for the Ukraine, here's a reuterised view from someone in Moscow. You have to filter out the bits in between the bits he sneaks through:

ANALYSIS-Ukraine Turmoil Widens Russia-West Rift
Wed Nov 24, 2004 12:33 PM ET

By Oleg Shchedrov

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Political turmoil in Ukraine has widened a rift between Russia and the West, but analysts said Moscow was unlikely to let disagreement over a presidential poll in the ex-Soviet state turn into a Cold War-style standoff.

Sunday's run-off poll gave Ukrainian voters the choice of keeping traditional ties with Russia or tacking toward the West and a European Union that has expanded up to their border.

The Kremlin, which sees Ukraine as part of a strategic buffer zone, invested millions of dollars and sent top experts to help pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich defeat Western-leaning candidate Viktor Yushchenko.

But it did not work out quite as planned. Tens of thousands protesters hit the streets in Kiev and other cities to back Yushchenko who accused the authorities of cheating him out of a win in polls Western observers said were tarnished by fraud.

The crisis hands Russia a dilemma.

On the one hand, President Vladimir Putin wants to reinforce Moscow's influence over former Soviet republics and so is keen to have a sympathetic president in Ukraine.

On the other, Putin has found himself confronting a chorus of criticism from the West -- and key trade partners -- denouncing the poll and demanding a review of its results.

"I don't think that Kremlin support for Yanukovich was a mistake," Vyacheslav Nikonov, the head of political think-tank Politika, said.

"Yushchenko's victory would mean Ukraine joining NATO in the next two years and its departure from a planned common market -- something the Kremlin cannot afford."

WESTERN CRITICISM

EU officials said Russia's role in the Ukrainian crisis be will raised at a summit starting in the Hague on Thursday.

And the State Department has summoned the Russian ambassador to Washington to express concerns about Putin's congratulations to Yanukovich sent before the election results were published.

Putin was clearly irritated by the slew of criticism.

"Ukraine is a major democratic state ... Don't teach Ukraine democracy," he said on Tuesday.

Putin has repeatedly stressed Russia must partner the West and stop looking at NATO or the EU as rivals or foes.

But analysts say despite the desire to be closer, the Kremlin has found the process humiliating.

"It's a kind of friendship where one partner does what it wants to and leaves the other to smile," Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily wrote late last week.

Russia has had to reluctantly accept the decision by NATO to give membership to the Baltic States -- once under Kremlin rule -- and a Western military presence in other parts of the old Soviet empire in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

And a year ago, Russia was forced to watch a people-power revolt put a West-leaning president into office in Georgia. However much it hurts, analysts said Russia was just as unlikely to push too hard to impose its will over Ukraine, the former Soviet republic closest to the Russian heart.

"I think attempts to use force can be ruled out," said analyst for the Institute of Europe, Vladimir Shveitser.

"In fact, the polls showed that Russia's ability to influence events in Ukraine is limited," he added. "There is a long process of attempts to find a compromise ahead."

Boris Makarenko of the Center of Political Technologies think-tank suggested that first signs of Moscow looking for a compromise over Ukraine had already emerged.

Hours after congratulating Yanukovich, Putin rowed back by saying he was still waiting for the official and final result.

"This was a clear message to Yanukovich: no one needs trouble here, go and strike a deal with Yushchenko," Makarenko said.

Latest reuters story: http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6910826

Link: http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6910533
 
I can't help but wonder how all of this is going to turn out. I'd hope that they can sort it out internally and peacefully, without intervention by outside powers.

Jim Bowen
 
Apparently the rumours are now rife that Yushchenko (the losing candidate) was poisioned, with one London-based toxicologist saying it looked like dioxin poisoning (and another saying it's rosacea, BTW).

But the before-and-after pictures taken this year certainly show a shocking difference, so it's not surprising that the rumours are out there.

_40543895_composite_203.jpg
 
richardm said:
Apparently the rumours are now rife that Yushchenko (the losing candidate) was poisioned, with one London-based toxicologist saying it looked like dioxin poisoning (and another saying it's rosacea, BTW).

But the before-and-after pictures taken this year certainly show a shocking difference, so it's not surprising that the rumours are out there.

They have been going on for a while. I think Yushchenko may have even made a direct acusation at one point.
 
geni said:
They have been going on for a while. I think Yushchenko may have even made a direct acusation at one point.

According to my co-student, he did. Several times, even before the first round of elections.


I spoke to her again today, and she told me about more rumors from Ukraine.

She says her mother has seen TV footage of "guns being transported to Kiev by railway", and that there are rumors that tank units are also heading for the capital. However, nobody has yet been able to get hold of anyone who has seen this with his own eyes.
Her mother also said that government supporters are arriving in Kiev by the busload to harrass opposition supporters; she saw two of them in a subway train, threatening a girl wearing an orange ribbon (the sign that the opposition has adopted), making threats and insulting the girl, until other passengers made them back down and leave her alone.
My co-student said she couldn´t translate the threats and insults because "I don´t know such ugly words in German".
There are also reports of mass protests starting in districts like Donezh and Crimea, where the government candidate officially scored 80+%. Protester crowds in Kiev itself are reported to have grown to 200,000.
 
Chaos said:

Her mother also said that government supporters are arriving in Kiev by the busload to harrass opposition supporters; she saw two of them in a subway train, threatening a girl wearing an orange ribbon (the sign that the opposition has adopted), making threats and insulting the girl, until other passengers made them back down and leave her alone.

The BBC is repoting that the miners have arrived in the capital.

The weather reports look like it's only going to be a couple of degrees below zero during the day for the next few days.
 
richardm said:
Apparently the rumours are now rife that Yushchenko (the losing candidate) was poisioned, with one London-based toxicologist saying it looked like dioxin poisoning (and another saying it's rosacea, BTW).

But the before-and-after pictures taken this year certainly show a shocking difference, so it's not surprising that the rumours are out there.

[/IMG]

I heard about those claims some time ago.


Those photos really don't look like the same guy though. Could there be some mistake.
 

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