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Population Growth

Chimera

Mind Fetishist
Joined
Jan 18, 2005
Messages
394
The world population is currently 6.4 billion and change. The earth is of finite size, but population continues to grow exponentially. This is something that personally worries and bothers me...will growth taper off? Will we find a way to keep sustaining new millions of people every year? Will the laws of supply and demand take care of everything?

I would like to know if anyone here has given this thought. Does anyone consider this to be a looming problem?

Jen
 
J-No said:
The world population is currently 6.4 billion and change. The earth is of finite size, but population continues to grow exponentially. This is something that personally worries and bothers me...will growth taper off? Will we find a way to keep sustaining new millions of people every year? Will the laws of supply and demand take care of everything?

I would like to know if anyone here has given this thought. Does anyone consider this to be a looming problem?

Jen

Most projections show it tapering off at some point. Remeber very little of the planet is as densely populated as england and we seem to get by ok.
 
Humans are mammals (but it's been painfully long since I've been offered proof of that, and don't even think of saying anything clever about that comment), and as best I know, there are two basic strategies that mammals (OK, and other vertabrates, but I had to get that bit in there) pursue with regards to population growth. There are r-strategists, which tend to reproduce very quickly and exponentially, and are adapted to very unstable environments, and k-strategists, which prefer stable environments and breed very slowly to keep their population at or just under carrying capacity.

I tend to think that humans are K strategists. While no organism is purely a k or r strategist, I think out long wait until sexual maturity, prolonged childhood and relatively low reproductive rate (compared to say, a rat) means that human populations will taper off at some point. Call me panglossian and my glasses rose tinted, but I really don't think people will breed themselves into starvation. Nature, in her infinite wisdom, has struck a careful balance between mens' enjoyment of sex and food.

Actually, that's not the reason I think a population crisis isn't looming. Men obviously enjoy sex more than food. There is, however, a drop in fertility when nutrition is poor, so there are at least some barriers as to how bad things can get. Hopefully other factors will rescue us from our own fecundity first, however.

The first is that as the world increases in general prosperity and medical sophistication, which I actually believe it is (though sometimes when I read about the popularity of medical nonsense I question this), I think the average number of children per household will go down. In the roughest sense, increasing prosperity tends to result in smaller families. There are obviously many more factors than that, but when you have (as I am blessed to, living Stateside) the assurance of having most of your children live past five, you really don't have to be churning out so many to ensure progeny in the next generation. In a very loose sense, better medicine changes humans from r strategists into k strategists.

The second, slightly less optimistic, reason I think the human population will never exceed carrying capacity enough to threaten happiness on average, is war. War, contrary to popular notions, doesn't actually kill that many people. Getting lots of people in the same place does tend to spread disease, and in fact WWII was the first war with more casualties from enemy action than disease, but historically the actual percentage of populations killed in wars was rather low.

This is begining to change. I forsee war becoming more like it was in the Middle Ages, except with more people. Most countries won't have very well trained or organized national armed forces, and will end up relying on mercenaries or similar means to fight their enemies. Infantry may well become more important, because specialized machines of war are just getting too freaking expensive. There's a reason that they can only buy 339 f/a-22's, or whatever neutered remenent of US air superiority Congress is going to authorize to protect my skies for the next twenty years. It's because to remain competative, a war machine has to be incredibly complex and expensive.

Therefore, if you're not a super power, you will soon only fight wars when you really really have to. Furthermore, holding to silly rules, treaties and restrictions won't be an option. Got chemical weapons? Good, you're going to need them because your enemy had biological ones. So far humanity has show, well, inhuman restraint in not deploying chemical and biological weapons (which are far more dangerous than nuclear ones because they're cheaper), but as wars get increasingly more vicious, expect the gloves to come off.

The increased casualties, then, will come in the form of civilians. Taking WWII as the prototype for future strategic war planning, the majority of people killed in future strategic (and they'll all be strategic since the frivolous ones won't be affordable) wars, it's always more effective to destroy industry and national morale than to shoot at tanks. This doesn't mean less casualties, however, by more efficient I mean it takes fewer bombs. You can get a lot of civilians with one bomb, the way they bunch up (and will do so increasingly as population increases).

Future wars, then will kill large percentages of the populations in areas where resources are in dispute. It'll be another constraint on population growth, humanity's inability to put up with large amounts of itself. It may result in lots of ugly wars, but it may well prevent more casulties of want and starvation.

The third factor I see keeping humans from breeding themselves into starvation is increased acceptance of birth control. My understanding is that better education (which I see as a worldwide trend) results in more birth control. With the spread of AIDS worldwide, condom education has become increasingly important (at least where the leader of the country isn't a complete idiot, interpret that statement as you wish) at keeping the population from getting completely wiped out by that particularly virulent disease. One can certainly hope that family planning will piggy-back on general sex-ed and keep us all from having to kill each other to make sure there's enough food to go around.
 
There are already thousands of people starving to death every day. There is nobody starving to death in 1st world countries. There is always a meal available in a dumpster and there likely always will be. I'm pretty certain dumpsters will always be an option in my lifetime. If I ever have any offspring and I'm concerned about how they'll fend, I'll be sure to tell them about dumpsters but I'll also advise them to set their goals in life high enough so that they won't need dumpsters.
 
According to a charity infomercial I recently saw, a suprising number of people go hungry in the US.
 
neutrino_cannon said:
Humans are mammals ...

Dang, that was a great post. I've got several nit-picks with it but none worth the bother of potentially distracting from it.

I remember reading a study regarding this issue and a quick google search turned it up at Nature. It asserts that population will indeed peak at around 9b by 2070 and then begin declining. It is based on several economic assumptions (the ignorant) I don't necessarily agree with but overall it was very well written.

The end of world population growth -- Wolfgang Lutz, Warren Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov
 
I'm not sure what you mean by "so many" without any figures, but I would point out that a lot of starving kids in the various famine-ridden parts of the world look plump around the midrift due to gasses in their gut from bacteria.

They're still not getting enough to eat, and I would think it's incredibly uncomfortable.
 
neutrino_cannon said:
I'm not sure what you mean by "so many" without any figures, but I would point out that a lot of starving kids in the various famine-ridden parts of the world look plump around the midrift due to gasses in their gut from bacteria.

You were talking about people starving in the US not in famine-ridden parts of the world.
 
Giambattista said:
You were talking about people starving in the US not in famine-ridden parts of the world.

The same prinicple may well apply, that "fat" could be bloating.

I don't claim that starvation is as lage an issue in the US as elsewhere, because it very clearly isn't. Only that within the borders of the country there exist undernourished people.
 
neutrino_cannon said:
The same prinicple may well apply, that "fat" could be bloating.

Sure it could, if it is. Who are we talking about? Got any links to information about actual people in USA with bacteria-bloated stomachs? That's the kind of thing that happens to people for whom there isn't a well-stocked dumpster within 500 miles.


I don't claim that starvation is as lage an issue in the US as elsewhere, because it very clearly isn't. Only that within the borders of the country there exist undernourished people.

I'm sure many nutritionists would inform us that the average north american diet isn't nutritious. I'm sure that plenty of family physicians could inform us that some of their patients showing signs of malnourishment aren't anywhere near the poverty line. So people being below the poverty line and being malnourished shouldn't be all that surprising, should it?

As for the link you posted about malnourished poverty-stricken youth attending school, I doubt they're at any disadvantage to their more wealthy peers who's lunchboxes are loaded up with 'Lunchables'. All the poor kids have to do is eat a couple tablespoons of salt, sugar, and crisco, and they'll be just as nourished as the rich kids.
 
neutrino_cannon said:
Only that within the borders of the country there exist undernourished people.

Here's something from that site:

"Child poverty is rampant in the U.S., and one of its most immediate effects is hunger. Fifteen million children throughout the country are eligible for free school lunch"

Notice how they worded it, they're 'eiligble for free school lunch'. Well as far as I can tell if they're eligible then they get it. So 15 million kids in USA are getting a free lunch every day. They may not be getting a free breakfast and dinner, but at least we know they are getting one square meal a day. I doubt anyone eating a nourishing meal once a day is malnourished.
 
Giambattista said:

I doubt anyone eating a nourishing meal once a day is malnourished.

Really? You'd say that getting only 1/3 of your calories and nutrients needed for everyday life is not malnourished? I'm using that 1/3 number as an approximation -- one meal out of three. It may be that they're getting more or less, depending on what they eat (many schools offer healthier and less healthy choices).
 
Phaycops said:
Really? You'd say that getting only 1/3 of your calories and nutrients needed for everyday life is not malnourished?

Assumes facts not in evidence. I eat one meal a day (usually) and I'm not malnourished by any definition I've heard of.
 
Phaycops said:
Really? You'd say that getting only 1/3 of your calories and nutrients needed for everyday life is not malnourished? I'm using that 1/3 number as an approximation -- one meal out of three. It may be that they're getting more or less, depending on what they eat (many schools offer healthier and less healthy choices).

Yeah, I don't know whats in the lunches that the lunch program serves and I'm not interested in this debate enough to investigate it, so I think I will refrain from going much further.
 
The debate about the bloated stomachs would seem to depend on the severity of the malnutrition. When you see the bloating, it's generally from footage of Ethiopa or Bangladesh. I don't remember seeing this happen in places like the US or UK.

On the other hand, I have seen people who don't have enough money for food on a daily basis who are heavy. I recently got involved with the family of a child from my school. The girl was always skinny and starved looking, with raggedy clothes. After I offered to take her shopping for food and clothes, I met the mom, who was quite heavy. I suppose mom could have been hoarding the food and not feeding her daughter, but that didn't seem likely. Additionally, there seemed to be no shortage of cigarettes and booze in the home, although they were stealing electricity from the laundry room. Sometimes I guess it's just a matter of what people value.

I've read that when you don't eat regularly, your metabolism slows down and your body holds fat to use for fuel. I wonder if this is a factor in this discussion.

Jen
 
neutrino_cannon said:
I have no idea where these numbers come from, but there seem to be plenty of people who think that malnutrition is a significant problem in the US.

Granted, 58,000 in a city the size of LA (assuming those figures could apply equally to other cities in the US) aren't going to be particularly visible, so I think it's safe to say that most Americans, even those who are homeless and living in abject poverty, are much better nourished than their counterparts elsewhere.

Los Angeles also happens to be prime real-estate. If I found myself living in Los Angeles not being able to make ends meet, I would move. Go 100 miles east and the rent is cheap... and lots of very poor people from LA seem to have figured that out already.
 

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