Poor Old McCain Versus The Ron Paul Mystique

[Solitaire]

Matt Welch, Editor of Reason Magazine

A very interesting artifact of this primary season that if you look in the early elections - before Super Tuesday, McCain never won even a plurality among voters who self identify as Republican when asked - even in close primaries. He was tied at best, with anybody.

He won because he won two to one on the vote that was anti-war, that was angry at Bush, and who described themselves as independents. And independents in this country, even more than regular citizens, are completely against the war. He won the Republican nomination because of the anti-war vote.

Think about it.

You spend decades in politics, defining yourself, making speeches in the senate, going on all the news shows, talking with reporters, dozens of debates with the other candidates, advertising on every medium spending tens of millions of dollars, and hundreds of campaign stops and speeches, and...

And the voters think you're Ron Paul!

 

[mortimer]

I'm not quite sure why Independents would view McCain as the (viable) Republican anti-war candidate, but if it's true that they do, that could bode very well in the general election for McCain.

 

[Brainster]

Think about it.

You spend decades in politics, defining yourself, making speeches in the senate, going on all the news shows, talking with reporters, dozens of debates with the other candidates, advertising on every medium spending tens of millions of dollars, and hundreds of campaign stops and speeches, and...

And the voters think you're Ron Paul!

Flawed analysis from Welch. Self-identified Republicans went 34% McCain, 35% to Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, 31% McCain, 30% Huckabee, 15% Romney in South Carolina, and 33% McCain, 33% Romney in Florida. And anyway, I fail to see the downside for the Republicans of having a candidate who does well with independents and centrists.

Yes, antiwar voters broke for him, but the question is whether those voters (especially the independents) want the US to win in Iraq. It appears that they do, and in that regard, they are certainly not Ronulans. Welch, of course denies that his magazine supported Paul, but it certainly gave him much better coverage than any other media outlet, especially Dave Weigel.