Peak Population to happen soon?

[portlandatheist]

My entire life, I've always been worried about the population explosion. Whether that was to occur during my lifetime or after, was uncertain but I was certain that the Earth would eventually reach carrying capacity, population would peak, and the results would be grim. There are numerous examples of population bubbles and subsequent crashes and I thought, the fate of humans wasn't unique in this regard. I didn't ever think it would mean the end of mankind, but it would be ugly nonetheless. So it is with interest and relief that I read this article in Scientific American about changing demographics:

There are holdouts, in parts of the Middle East and rural Africa. But more than 60 countries—containing approaching half of the world's population—already have fertility rates at or below the rate needed to maintain their populations long-term. The club now includes most of the Caribbean islands, Japan, South Korea, China, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Iran, Turkey, Vietnam, Brazil, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Tunisia. Within 20 years, demographic giants like Indonesia, Bangladesh, Mexico and India will in all probability also have below-replacement fertility

I've always known that the developed world had a much lower birth rate but the article goes on:

Rich or poor, educated or illiterate, socialist or capitalist, Muslim or Catholic, secular or devout, with tough government birth control policies or none, most —most families—tell the same story.

And of course what scared me in the first place:

It took around 130 years, from about 1800 to 1927, for the world to get from one billion people to two billion, but only another 33 years to reach three billion, which happened in 1960. Reaching four billion took just 15 years to 1975. The fifth billion came in 12 years, in 1987, as did the next billion, achieved in 1999

It seems there are a number of factors going on here: socioeconomic, access to health care and education, and so on but it also shows that a substantial cultural transition is happening that transcends poverty level, education level, etc. Will we reach "peak population" soon and what effect will that have on us? From just about any stand point, especially global warming, and end to population growth would be a good thing.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-reproductive-revoluti

 

[lionking]

It's Africa which causes the biggest concern. That continent seems decades away from the stability and economic progress usually associated with lower birth rates.

 

[Scott Haley]

For decades, demographers have predicted that the world population would peak in the mid-21st century. From all that I've read, all signs still point to that prediction coming true.

 

[lionking]

For decades, demographers have predicted that the world population would peak in the mid-21st century. From all that I've read, all signs still point to that prediction coming true.

That's true, but this article suggests that the peak will be a bit sooner than mid-century. I certainly hope so.

 

[portlandatheist]

For decades, demographers have predicted that the world population would peak in the mid-21st century. From all that I've read, all signs still point to that prediction coming true.

Yes, I've heard these predictions before and I was skeptical believing it was simply a challenge of bringing impoverished nations into the developed world. This article suggests that undeveloped and developing nations are also following this trend(but to a lesser degree) and that this trend may transcend development

 

[DC]

Thanks Popes, great job.

 

[portlandatheist]

Thanks Popes, great job.

I'm with you on this 100% DC. This is a trend that needs to change both in terms of HIV and population. Definitely the wrong message for Africa.

 

[DC]

I'm with you on this 100% DC. This is a trend that needs to change both in terms of HIV and population. Definitely the wrong message for Africa.

yup, he should be charged for involuntary manslaughter.

here the "mathematic PoV" to the problem.

 

[lionking]

yup, he should be charged for involuntary manslaughter.

here the "mathematic PoV" to the problem.

That video has nothing to do with the OP. When each nation's birth rate drops below the replacement rate, no growth, exponential or otherwise, occurs.

 

[DC]

That video has nothing to do with the OP. When each nation's birth rate drops below the replacement rate, no growth, exponential or otherwise, occurs.

watch again, and think about this while watching.

It took around 130 years, from about 1800 to 1927, for the world to get from one billion people to two billion, but only another 33 years to reach three billion, which happened in 1960. Reaching four billion took just 15 years to 1975. The fifth billion came in 12 years, in 1987, as did the next billion, achieved in 1999

(video 3/8 has the simplest and best example, the bottles)

 

[lionking]

watch again, and think about this while watching.



(video 3/8 has the simplest and best example, the bottles)

I did watch it and learnt nothing I didn't already know. Growth in the world's population will cease rather sooner than expected it seems.

 

[DC]

I did watch it and learnt nothing I didn't already know. Growth in the world's population will cease rather sooner than expected it seems.

we are getting far better population grow rates in the last few decades, but still the world population is growing, slower but it still is. we must keep working on it and even faster.

 

[lionking]

we are getting far better population grow rates in the last few decades, but still the world population is growing, slower but it still is. we must keep working on it and even faster.

Did you read the article in the OP?

 

[McHrozni]

It seems there are a number of factors going on here: socioeconomic, access to health care and education, and so on but it also shows that a substantial cultural transition is happening that transcends poverty level, education level, etc. Will we reach "peak population" soon and what effect will that have on us? From just about any stand point, especially global warming, and end to population growth would be a good thing.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-reproductive-revoluti

There is another factor, which you probably overlooked. To go from 1 billion to 2 billion, you need the population to double. To go from 5 billion to 6 billion you need it to increase by just 20%.
Year-on-year growth rate for population to go from 1 to 2 billion in 33 years is approximately 2.15% yearly growth rate. However, to go from 5 to 6 billion in 13 years, you need approximately 1,41% yearly growth rate. The growth rate actually slowed in this time period, not increased. Granted, the rate of population increase rose, but the trend is not towards a population explosion. This is also what this article states.

McHrozni

 

[DC]

Did you read the article in the OP?

yes

 

[DC]

Annual population growth rate in percent

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_growth#Human_population_growth_rate

 

[DC]

There is another factor, which you probably overlooked. To go from 1 billion to 2 billion, you need the population to double. To go from 5 billion to 6 billion you need it to increase by just 20%.
Year-on-year growth rate for population to go from 1 to 2 billion in 33 years is approximately 2.15% yearly growth rate. However, to go from 5 to 6 billion in 13 years, you need approximately 1,41% yearly growth rate. The growth rate actually slowed in this time period, not increased. Granted, the rate of population increase rose, but the trend is not towards a population explosion. This is also what this article states.

McHrozni

considering our standard of living and the use of resources that comes with it, pollution, global warming, and so on, you don't need an explosion to get in big troubles.

 

[McHrozni]

considering our standard of living and the use of resources that comes with it, pollution, global warming, and so on, you don't need an explosion to get in big troubles.

Probably true, but since the OP is about a population explosion I quite fail to see how similar problems that can appear without a population explosion are relevant.

McHrozni

 

[shadron]

From DC's wiki citation above:

Human population growth rate

Globally, the growth rate of the human population has been declining since peaking in 1962 and 1963 at 2.20% per annum. In 2009 the estimated annual growth rate was 1.1%.[3] The CIA World Factbook gives the world annual birthrate, mortality rate, and growth rate (somewhat inconsistently) as 1.986%, 0.837%, and 1.13% respectively[4]. ...

The actual annual growth in the number of humans fell from its peak of 88.0 million in 1989, to a low of 73.9 million in 2003, after which it rose again to 75.2 million in 2006. Since then, annual growth has declined. In 2009 the human population increased by 74.6 million, and it is projected to fall steadily to about 41 million per annum in 2050, at which time the population will have increased to about 9.2 billion.[9]

The article itself has lots of internal and external references for people who want to investigate all the stats and speculation.

 

[Nosi]

It's Africa which causes the biggest concern. That continent seems decades away from the stability and economic progress usually associated with lower birth rates.

Africa's people power would become a real asset in a baby bust after the reality hits like a ripe road apple.