TillEulenspiegel
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New to this forum and I was worndering if folks here have an analysis of the situation in re PRNK. Checked back a few pages of topics and did'nt see any. Trolling for opinions.
Opinions on North Korea
- Thread starter TillEulenspiegel
- Start date
Yeesh, what a big topic.
I'll just start small, and hopefully others will allow it to expand. The PRNK is using the same tactic over and over again: threaten to de-stabilize the region in order to get money from the rest of the world. Numerous threats to pull out of the NPT, re-starting nuclear reactors, ballistic weapons bluffs, etc. However, whenever the US makes a deal, it continually displays that it is willing to bend to the PRNK in this manner (despite the fact that we do reneg on some aspects of the treaty). Personally, I believe the manner in which the Bush administration has dealt with the North Koreans is one of the very few highlights of their administration. They have urged multi-lateral talks and refused to budge from their position. Kudos to them.
I'll just start small, and hopefully others will allow it to expand. The PRNK is using the same tactic over and over again: threaten to de-stabilize the region in order to get money from the rest of the world. Numerous threats to pull out of the NPT, re-starting nuclear reactors, ballistic weapons bluffs, etc. However, whenever the US makes a deal, it continually displays that it is willing to bend to the PRNK in this manner (despite the fact that we do reneg on some aspects of the treaty). Personally, I believe the manner in which the Bush administration has dealt with the North Koreans is one of the very few highlights of their administration. They have urged multi-lateral talks and refused to budge from their position. Kudos to them.
TillEulenspiegel said:
You got it.......
This is the thing. Stuff is going to happen that's beyond our control. They are simply insane, and they're going to start a nuke war the moment they are able to.
The only hope is if China asserts its power and puts the smack down on them. Otherwise, keep a stash of Potassium iodide handy.
HarryKeogh
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the leader looks like a cross between yoko ono and bono (circa. the achtung baby album)
that's about the extent of my knowledge (oh and also he's nuts, possibly has nukes but everything in Iraq is going to be okay!)
that's about the extent of my knowledge (oh and also he's nuts, possibly has nukes but everything in Iraq is going to be okay!)
Frank Newgent
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What is to stop the US from nuking North Korea right now, before their nuclear infrastructure is complete?
1. Cheney's stock portfolio short on kim chee futures.
2. Nuclear Football mistakenly presented to New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick after an upset victory over the favored St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI.
3. Mrs. Donald Rumsfeld's recent choice of movie rentals - Judgement at Nuremberg - at Georgetown's BLOCKBUSTER video.
4. Body of leading world religious figure rumored to have been found in the Mideast, resulting in the cancellation of Easter and Attorney General John Ashcroft's declaration: "This changes everything. Go bomb them yourself, you son-of-a-bitch!"
5. Dawning awareness of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il as an ally of the Bush Doctrine with his challenge: "Why should I let contradictions of reality diminish the expression of untruth so grounded in firm metaphysical principle?"
6. Naive amateur Neil Bush in Pyongyang carrying a Bible, a chocolate cake and a Thermos of highly enriched uranium.
7. Unnamed former president inexplicably fingersmeared top-secret recall code in lavatory stall at the dedication of Ronald Reagan UCLA Medical Center.
1. Cheney's stock portfolio short on kim chee futures.
2. Nuclear Football mistakenly presented to New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick after an upset victory over the favored St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI.
3. Mrs. Donald Rumsfeld's recent choice of movie rentals - Judgement at Nuremberg - at Georgetown's BLOCKBUSTER video.
4. Body of leading world religious figure rumored to have been found in the Mideast, resulting in the cancellation of Easter and Attorney General John Ashcroft's declaration: "This changes everything. Go bomb them yourself, you son-of-a-bitch!"
5. Dawning awareness of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il as an ally of the Bush Doctrine with his challenge: "Why should I let contradictions of reality diminish the expression of untruth so grounded in firm metaphysical principle?"
6. Naive amateur Neil Bush in Pyongyang carrying a Bible, a chocolate cake and a Thermos of highly enriched uranium.
7. Unnamed former president inexplicably fingersmeared top-secret recall code in lavatory stall at the dedication of Ronald Reagan UCLA Medical Center.
TillEulenspiegel
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8. Kim Jong-il has agreed to stop all further research and development of nuclear weapons in return for a 1 hour special with Robin Leech on Lifestyles of Dangerious and Obscure.
9. Kissinger convinces Dubya that we can prevail by covert bombing of Japan where the NK regulars have been infiltraiting.
AND the most important reason....
10. Our precious bodily fluids have been corrupted since the advent of "New Coke".
Buck Turgidson
9. Kissinger convinces Dubya that we can prevail by covert bombing of Japan where the NK regulars have been infiltraiting.
AND the most important reason....
10. Our precious bodily fluids have been corrupted since the advent of "New Coke".
Buck Turgidson
headscratcher4
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Re: Re: Opinions on North Korea
They will do nothing of the kind. Use of the bomb against the US or Japan or any US Ally will require massive retaliation. China will not want that...not only does it undercut China's growing global power or influence, but they don't want the atomic cloud washing over the Yalu. Further, while NK might build some weapons (I am not sure that the case has yet been proven that they've succeeded in their nuclear intentions), they can not build enough weapons and systems to effectively forstall complete distruction by the US.
And, in the end, China will want that area controlled because having a renegade nuclear power to their south means all of the problems they are trying to avoid...direct confrontation with the US (other than over a matter of their making, like Tiawan), refugees, trade embargos, etc.
Basically, the NK nuclear option is a bald faced attempt to intimidate and maintain the status quo. NK is betting that the US is weak and will back off rather than face a nuclear deterent, believing that they have demonstrated the stomach for mass distruction, while we in the West have not.
Use of the weapon will only make sense for them under a circumstance where the regime is under assault and completely cornered...i.e. where Kim thinks that he is being invaded by the US or on the verge of invasion and that the regime is in danger.
It is frightening that Kim may have a bomb. It is important, I think, to understand, that this paranoid regime is capable of using it. However, they are not crazy...very different world view than we have, but not crazy. They want to be heard and international power politics tells them (and rightly too) that only countries with the bomb get to sit at the table. They may not be able to feed their people, but they want to sit at the table...beliving, as they do, in their fundumentalist, Kim-ist, Juche regligion. But, just because they are fanatics with a phenominally warrped world view doesn't mean that within their own context they are crazy. Their policy has achieved all that they could have wanted. Their issues are being discussed. Russia and China are working on their behalf. The US -- in one fashion or another -- must deal with them (and they can only assume, at some point, do so directly). The poor fools in South Korea feel sorry for them and think that Kim is the one Korean truly working for reunification, etc.
Such calculated success is not the result of a crazy policy. Just an observation.
American said:
They will do nothing of the kind. Use of the bomb against the US or Japan or any US Ally will require massive retaliation. China will not want that...not only does it undercut China's growing global power or influence, but they don't want the atomic cloud washing over the Yalu. Further, while NK might build some weapons (I am not sure that the case has yet been proven that they've succeeded in their nuclear intentions), they can not build enough weapons and systems to effectively forstall complete distruction by the US.
And, in the end, China will want that area controlled because having a renegade nuclear power to their south means all of the problems they are trying to avoid...direct confrontation with the US (other than over a matter of their making, like Tiawan), refugees, trade embargos, etc.
Basically, the NK nuclear option is a bald faced attempt to intimidate and maintain the status quo. NK is betting that the US is weak and will back off rather than face a nuclear deterent, believing that they have demonstrated the stomach for mass distruction, while we in the West have not.
Use of the weapon will only make sense for them under a circumstance where the regime is under assault and completely cornered...i.e. where Kim thinks that he is being invaded by the US or on the verge of invasion and that the regime is in danger.
It is frightening that Kim may have a bomb. It is important, I think, to understand, that this paranoid regime is capable of using it. However, they are not crazy...very different world view than we have, but not crazy. They want to be heard and international power politics tells them (and rightly too) that only countries with the bomb get to sit at the table. They may not be able to feed their people, but they want to sit at the table...beliving, as they do, in their fundumentalist, Kim-ist, Juche regligion. But, just because they are fanatics with a phenominally warrped world view doesn't mean that within their own context they are crazy. Their policy has achieved all that they could have wanted. Their issues are being discussed. Russia and China are working on their behalf. The US -- in one fashion or another -- must deal with them (and they can only assume, at some point, do so directly). The poor fools in South Korea feel sorry for them and think that Kim is the one Korean truly working for reunification, etc.
Such calculated success is not the result of a crazy policy. Just an observation.
Re: Re: Re: Opinions on North Korea
I completely agree, there is an extremely slight probablity that NK will use the bomb (if they have the 1 or 2 that they claim to have, and are building more). An interesting twist is that the US may start pouring more resources into the region in an attempt to wage the War on Drugs in NK. I wonder what kind of issues this may lead to, although I doubt the situation could get much muddier.
Yes, it is dangerous to assume that Kim Jong Il is merely a crazy wacko dictator. From what I have heard he is actually quite intelligent and well-versed in world politics. This would go along with his strategic usage of using nuclear weapons in leveraging the PRNK position in the global hierarchies, in addition to backing down when necessary and being willing to compromise. Personally, I've felt that the Bush administration has handled themselves well by not backing down and giving over to all the demands of NK, but instead standing firm on multi-lateral talks. Hopefully, something will happen where the people in PRNK will actually be fed and sustain themselves.
headscratcher4 said:
I completely agree, there is an extremely slight probablity that NK will use the bomb (if they have the 1 or 2 that they claim to have, and are building more). An interesting twist is that the US may start pouring more resources into the region in an attempt to wage the War on Drugs in NK. I wonder what kind of issues this may lead to, although I doubt the situation could get much muddier.
Yes, it is dangerous to assume that Kim Jong Il is merely a crazy wacko dictator. From what I have heard he is actually quite intelligent and well-versed in world politics. This would go along with his strategic usage of using nuclear weapons in leveraging the PRNK position in the global hierarchies, in addition to backing down when necessary and being willing to compromise. Personally, I've felt that the Bush administration has handled themselves well by not backing down and giving over to all the demands of NK, but instead standing firm on multi-lateral talks. Hopefully, something will happen where the people in PRNK will actually be fed and sustain themselves.
Re: Re: Re: Opinions on North Korea
Bingo!!! I think that is the crucial point. There are many subtext to the situation but in the nuclear world this goes to the heart of the matter. The same thing could be said about Iran.
No matter how many times over we could destroy their countries, we couldn't act hastily if we knew it meant losing just one American City. Boom goes Washington DC, Boom goes NY.
headscratcher4 said:
Bingo!!! I think that is the crucial point. There are many subtext to the situation but in the nuclear world this goes to the heart of the matter. The same thing could be said about Iran.
No matter how many times over we could destroy their countries, we couldn't act hastily if we knew it meant losing just one American City. Boom goes Washington DC, Boom goes NY.
arcticpenguin
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North Korea sucks. I wouldn't want to live there, and I wouldn't want to visit there.
Having been a student of the Korean peninsula for awhile, I have to say that if it wasn't so sad and didn't cost so many lives, that the PDRK would be one of the funniest comidies ever written.
Try reading the Pyonyang Times or something like that...
Try reading the Pyonyang Times or something like that...
WildCat
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There were reports yesterday that China had sent 150,000 troops to the N. Korean border, possibly to send a message to them to cool off. China doesn't want this mess any more than Japan or S. Korea does.
Here's a link. Free registration required.
Here's a link. Free registration required.
Frank Newgent
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11: Bush still unable to properly toss off the Slim Picken's line "I'm gonna get them doors open if it hare lips everybody on Bear Creek".TillEulenspiegel said: