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Obama in China

Wolfman

Chief Solipsistic, Autosycophant
Wolfman
Joined
Jan 16, 2007
Messages
13,415
Location
Vancouver, Canada
I cannot believe it...the man's been here more than a day now, and not a single thread about it!

My comment -- his visit has messed up traffic horribly, as roads are shut down every time his motorcade moves. Other than that, his visit seems to be going okay.
 
I hope people there aren't looking at Obama's every move, gesture, bow, and salute with a microscope looking for any hint of something bad, like they are here.
 
I'm mostly focused on China eschewing protectionism (while voluntarily keeping their capital account firmly shut) and bemoaning the "weak dollar" (while voluntarily keeping their should-be-a-lot-stronger yuan tightly pegged to its weakness), and the POTUS hoping the CNY will rise one year (while keeping tariffs on tyres etc) and wishing China would help with pesky imbalances (while running up the granddaddy of deficits).

So a lot of hot air on those stakes. Mind you it is winter.
 
Question for discussion:

Does lecturing on human rights actually give real returns in terms of Chinese changes in behaviour? Or is it primarily for domestic consumption and ironically result in a hardening of the Chinese position in reaction?

I guess this brings up the age-old question: does engagement bring about these desired changes better than the distancing in the relationship brought about by lecturing?

Given the iron-clad control of the Chinese government, does American even have a prayer of influencing them in these respects?

I guess you can tell by the way I'm framing these questions where I sit..;)
 
This is the only news article I have come across in Australia.

The attempts to control the flow of information seem to be poorly executed to me, and hence counterproductive.

I wonder if locals notice or care.
 
Wolfman said:
I cannot believe it...the man's been here more than a day now, and not a single thread about it!
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So you started one. Joy.
My comment -- his visit has messed up traffic horribly, as roads are shut down every time his motorcade moves. Other than that, his visit seems to be going okay.
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The sellout continues, since Bush 41.

@ Francesca: in regards the yuan, aye. Old, but consistent, news rather like the sell out.

@ Wolfman: FWIW, this amateur art critic finds your non-lupine avatar to smell like about one from column A, two from column B, passed through colon C. :( Are there not wolves in China?

DR
 
Praktik said:
Question for discussion:

Does lecturing on human rights actually give real returns in terms of Chinese changes in behaviour? Or is it primarily for domestic consumption and ironically result in a hardening of the Chinese position in reaction?

I guess this brings up the age-old question: does engagement bring about these desired changes better than the distancing in the relationship brought about by lecturing?

Given the iron-clad control of the Chinese government, does American even have a prayer of influencing them in these respects?

I guess you can tell by the way I'm framing these questions where I sit..;)
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Just lecturing?

Probably not. Although keep in mind that the people he's lecturing to are China's future leaders.

But it goes beyond just lecturing. As I've argued elsewhere, the changes in China in the past 15 years are nothing short of amazing. I'm not talking just about economic changes. Freedoms in China have increased hugely since I came to China in 1993. Chinese people can express themselves much more openly and freely. Criticism of the gov't is much more acceptable and common (up to a certain point). Access to uncensored information is now commonplace (despite continued efforts to maintain some degree of control). Freedom to travel to other countries is now there for pretty much anyone who can afford it (in fact, the main limitation on Chinese traveling abroad is no longer the Chinese gov't -- it is the foreign gov'ts who refuse to give visas to many of them).

Please note that during the period where both sides shut themselves off from each other, almost nothing changed in China. It was only after both political and economic ties were established and built that these changes took place in China.

And, despite setbacks and abuses, that pattern of change is continuing in China.

I've said this many times, but perhaps it bears saying again. The United States was founded on principles of freedom and equality. Yet it took them 100 years to abolish slavery; 150 years to give women and native peoples the right to vote. And there are still struggles today to promote true equality for everyone.

150 years.

China's a country with over 5000 years of history, during which they have never, ever had the concepts of freedom or equality in the government. It is only 20 years ago that China began to make changes in this direction.

The changes that it has accomplished in those 20 years far outstrip the pace of similar changes in the US. And those changes continue to take place.

Expecting China -- with problems that are entirely different than that of the US, a cultural legacy that is entirely different than that of the US, and a political legacy that is entirely different from that of the US -- to accomplish what took 150 years in the US, within only 20 or 30 years here, is ludicrous in the extreme, and demonstrates only a lack of any real historical perspective or insight.

This doesn't mean that we ignore or excuse the abuses that still take place in China (just as we shouldn't ignore or excuse the abuses that still take place in the US, or any other nation around the world). Nor does it mean that we should consider the changes in China to be sufficient...more needs to be done. Much more.

But China is moving in the right direction, and engagements such as that made by Obama do serve an actual, positive purpose.

When one compares China today to the US today, certainly China lags far behind. But if one compares China today to...well...to any previous period in their 5000 years of history, the people of China today enjoy greater freedom and equality than at any previous time in their history.

And that's no small accomplishment.

I think that Obama was dead on in his comments that the US should not seek to impose its beliefs on other nations; but that it seeks changes, and promotes rights that it considers to be universal -- freedom of speech, access to information, etc. And history more than adequately demonstrates that those values have been far more effectively promoted and improved in China through positive interaction with them, than was ever accomplished through antagonism and force.

One of the changes that people outside China don't really get to see is the change that is taking place in the younger generation of Chinese. Those who grew up after the Cultural Revolution, those to whom Tiananmen Square was something that happened when they were too young to understand what was happening.

These people are growing up plugged into the internet, with access to information from all over the world; gov't attempts to control it are inadequate at best. They are traveling to other countries, attending foreign universities. They are getting jobs overseas.

And then they are returning to China.

And all that information, all that knowledge, all the things they've seen and learned...they haven't been lost. It results in a radically different worldview than that of their parents, or that of the current government leadership.

China's going to continue, in fits and starts -- and not without the occasional setback -- to move forward. But the real changes, the ones that will truly shape China and its future, will come when this generation comes to power. Yes, that means waiting another 30 or 40 years.

But in a historical perspective, that's the mere blink of an eye. And it is the vision that most Chinese that I know have for their own future.
 
Francesca R said:
Poor Singapore didn't get an "Obama in . . ." thread at all. Predictions for whether S. Korea will?
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He'll be seen getting into a Hyundai limo and then be screamed at for betraying the UAW in Detroit city, and such.

DR
 
Wolfman said:
China's going to continue, in fits and starts -- and not without the occasional setback -- to move forward. But the real changes, the ones that will truly shape China and its future, will come when this generation comes to power. Yes, that means waiting another 30 or 40 years.

But in a historical perspective, that's the mere blink of an eye. And it is the vision that most Chinese that I know have for their own future.
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Thanks for the great run-down. It will be interesting to see how the generation that grew up (largely) affluent, with the Internet, mass media, and so forth, turn into leaders.

I've found that the generational gaps in Asia can be astounding -- They can be anywhere, of course, but IMO because of how incredibly quickly a lot of Asian countries have moved from agrarian economies to largely industrialized, technology-driven economies, the gaps between young and old can be very dramatic. It will be interesting to see how it works out.

Just curious: how is the younger generation when it comes to nationalism? Is there a concern there at all?
 
ARubberChickenWithAPulley said:
Just curious: how is the younger generation when it comes to nationalism? Is there a concern there at all?
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The younger generation tend to be fairly strong nationalists...but in a very different way than their parents or grandparents.

They're growing up in a China that is rapidly starting to dominate the world...this causes a certain degree of nationalist pride (understandably), and of course a desire that it continues.

However, for previous generations, nationalism tended to be more of the "China is the center of the world" type...the rest of the world is relevant only in terms of how it can benefit China (not very different from the mindset of Bush, or others like him, in fact). The younger generation is growing up with a much clearer picture of its place in the international scene...and looking more to see how China can take a role as a part of the larger community of nations.

Young Chinese tend to be very proud of how Chinese troops are now being used in peacekeeping missions, and for disaster relief, outside of China. They tend to be very critical of China's current environmental policies, and want to see China lead the world in environmental reform (this is a very hot topic in China right now).

In short, they are nationalist in terms that they want China to be the biggest, and the best; and perhaps have a rather large blind spot to some of their own weaknesses and problems as a result. But their idea of what it means to be "biggest and best" is drastically different from their forebears. It doesn't mean conquering everyone else, or winning a battle of political ideology.

Instead, it means taking a place in the international community where they are indispensable, where they are the leaders.

I think that you'd find a similar sentiment in a lot of nations, particularly among the internet generation, who've grown up with a much greater sense of being part of an international community, and much more chance to interact with and learn from peoples from other nations.

The key difference, I think, is optimism. The Chinese have a pattern of 20 years of continued growth and development...and their hopes for the future are predicated on that pattern. They believe it is going to continue, and thus their dreams tend to be quite ambitious. Much moreso than most other nations.

Personally, I don't think this continuous growth is going to continue forever. In fact, I anticipate a major internal crisis -- financial and political -- within the next ten years. And a key factor in China's long-term development will be how both the government and the people here react when that happens.

And quite frankly, I would not even venture to hazard a guess about that.

I am, however, optimistic about China's long-term (50+ years) development. Will it become the world's dominant powerhouse? I don't know. But I do believe that it will accomplish a degree of freedom and equality comparable to what we have in the west.
 
A further comment, more in line with Obama's visit, and in line with my comments about China's younger generation:

Obama is largely idolized by China's young people. Its an amazing turn-around...Bush was universally despised. But they absolutely love Obama, not just because he makes the US 'less threatening', but because he is the kind of leader that they want to have here.

And I do think that in his visit here, Obama is specifically and deliberately targeting those youth. Yeah, in his official comments about his meeting with President Hu, there wasn't much of substance...but then, how much change does he really expect from the current leaders? One has to be practical.

But when he talked directly to the Chinese university students (and despite not being broadcast nationally, the uncensored video of his speech has become one of the hottest online items online), he was much more direct. He stated clearly and plainly that freedom of speech, freedom of information, freedom to criticize one's gov't...that these were universal rights.

And it is a sentiment that the younger generation agrees with overwhelmingly. Online discussions of his visit are everywhere, and it is discussion of his Shanghai appearance that predominate...not his meeting with Hu Jintao in Beijing.

I think that Obama has a better grasp of long-term change, and of the power of youth, than most political leaders. It was his ability to mobilize and motivate American youth that led in large part to his victory there; and it is that generation that is responding the most to his appearance here in China.

So do "mere words" make a difference?

In some cases, yes. When they create a vision that other people buy into. Martin Luther King's "I have a dream" speech is one such example.

I don't expect Obama's visit to be a pivotal point in China's development; but I do think that it makes a positive contribution to motivate China's younger generation, and to encourage a dream that is already building here.

The fact that we won't see the fruit of that dream next week, or next year, doesn't render it invalid.
 
Francesca R said:
I'm mostly focused on China eschewing protectionism (while voluntarily keeping their capital account firmly shut) and bemoaning the "weak dollar" (while voluntarily keeping their should-be-a-lot-stronger yuan tightly pegged to its weakness), and the POTUS hoping the CNY will rise one year (while keeping tariffs on tyres etc) and wishing China would help with pesky imbalances (while running up the granddaddy of deficits).

So a lot of hot air on those stakes. Mind you it is winter.
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Are suggesting some sort of equivalency?
The tire tariffs, BTW, were done under a system which China agreed to.
China's exports to the US are roughly triple or more those going the other way.

And the "granddaddy of deficits" is an inevitable result of the financial crisis, which China is largely responsible for.
 
Puppycow said:
Are suggesting some sort of equivalency?
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More like hypocrisy.

China moans about tariffs on steel and tyres while keeping its capital account closed and its currency pegged at a level nobody believes it would be at if floated. Closed capital accounts and fixed exchange rates are "always and everywhere" protectionism.

Oh and there is plenty of blame to go around in respect of the financial crisis. It tends to be "largely China's responsibility" only to blinkered American conservatives :)
 
Hey wolfman some great thoughts here thanks for taking the time to share your perspective!
 
I understand that his speech decrying censorship has been almost completely censored. You can't find a copy of it anywhere in China.
 
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