North Korea and China

[Supercharts]

According to this article:
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=535&e=2&u=/ap/20031030/ap_on_re_as/china_nkorea
"State television showed Wu Bangguo, the second-highest Chinese Communist Party leader and head of his country's legislature, meeting with a smiling Kim in Pyongyang. Wu is on a three-day "goodwill" visit to the North at a pivotal time when China is trying to make sure the six-nation summit reconvenes.
"Both sides agreed in principle that the six-way talks should continue," CCTV's anchorwoman said as footage of the two ran. "China and North Korea support the idea of a peaceful resolution to the North Korean issue through dialogue." "

I am very skeptical that China seeks a real solution to the issues between the U.S. and N. Korea.
My reasoning is as follows: It is to China's national interest to maintain to a controllable degree the tension between the U.S. and N. Korea. I see China's visit to N. Korea more as a 'moderating influence' rather than a solution mediator.
China has in N. Korea an ally in terms of posing a threat to the West but no threat to itself. In effect what China is doing is what the U.S. has been doing in the Middle East for the last 50 years. Any tension between a client state and the U.S.S.R., an example of this is Iran and the Shah, Iraq and Iran, Afghanistan and the U.S.S.R. occupation etc., serves to increase the influence of the U.S. with little cost. Opposition to the U.S.S.R. was successful in supporting chaos and ensuring that it does not get out of hand.
China's 'moderating influence' is a clever utilization of an outlaw state that on minimal historical principles (support for a fellow socialist state etc.) allows it to use N. Korea as a buffer between itself and the non-socialist countries of Asia, an economic lever against the western influence in the region, an opportunity for increased international influence etc.
Putting it briefly - there is no advantage to China to allow a stable relationship between N. Korea and any country influenced by western economic policies that would hurt China's economy or influence. It is, rather, to China's advantage that the situation continues as a counterbalance to the U.S./Japan/S. Korea economic model.
Peace between N. Korea and western economies is to China's disadvantage.

 

[shuize]

But when N. Korea implodes, not all the refugees are going to be going south.

 

[Ziggurat]

To some degree, China has a reason to maintain a standoff between North Korea and the west. But they also have a big motivator for keeping North Korea from going nuclear, and they need to wake up and smell the coffee on this one, because the window of opportunity to do anything constructive about it is closing. If North Korea goes nuclear, it's probably only a matter of time before Japan goes nuclear (they have the expertise and infrastructure to do it easily, and it wouldn't even take them long - I bet Japan could have a nuke within a year without breaking a sweat). Then China is going to be surrounded by nuclear powers (they've already got Russia, Pakistan, and India right next door). And that simply can't be something that they want.

 

[shuize]

Yes, Japan could put the weapons together very quickly. In fact, I sort of suspect that Japan already has the parts stored seperately for just such an enventuality.

If N. Korea is confirmed having gone nuclear, it is only a matter of time before Japan does the same, as you say. If there's anything that can motivate them to do so, it's the thought of N. Koreans with nukes.

 

[Supercharts]

I suspect that Japan already has operational 'nukes' or has access to them by virtue of the U.S.
There are 'boomers' in the S. Pacific - I believe - that will launch on command by Japan.
But I could be wrong...