No time for lullabies

[TFian]

Another excellent piece by the Grand Archdruid John Michael Greer that everyone here must read.

Especially but not only in America, an awareness is spreading through the crawlspaces of society that the current round of troubles might not just be a speedbump on the road to the shiny future our society’s myths promise us. The sense that something has truly, deeply, desperately gone wrong, right down at the core of the world we’ve created for ourselves, has made itself the background to most of the collective conversations that define our culture. The popularity of soothing narratives about the future just now is, if anything, a marker for just how pervasive that background has become; it’s only when fears are inescapable that efforts at mass reassurance find a market.

It didn’t take a hundred years for the British empire to be replaced by ours, and it won’t take a hundred years for ours to be replaced by someone else’s. Since we can’t rely on the unusual historical circumstances that allowed Britain to maintain a few shreds of its imperial dignity and some of its privileged economic standing – they were basically able to rent their island out to the American military as an unusually large aircraft carrier conveniently anchored right off the shores of Europe; we don’t have that geopolitical advantage – the aftermath of the American empire is almost certain to be much more like the aftermath of most other empires: economic collapse, massive political dislocations, and a long period of turmoil and contraction until the bottom is reached and recovery can finally start to take shape. The global empire that preceded Britain’s, the Spanish Empire, may provide a more accurate model: that empire imploded in the early nineteenth century in the wake of Britain’s rise to global power, and it wasn’t until the late twentieth century that Spain finally managed to pull itself out of the long nightmare of impoverishment and political chaos that followed.

If you’re going to be desperately poor by today’s standards, and you are, you might as well learn how to handle that with a certain amount of skill, and maybe even a bit of grace. Knowing how to grow some of your own food, keep your home comfortable with minimal energy inputs, and do the other things green wizards can do will help with that; listening to lullabies won’t.

Full post is here http://energybulletin.net/stories/2010-11-25/no-time-lullabies

What does everyone think?

 

[Normal Dude]

I think there's always someone around to yell that the sky is falling.

 

[TFian]

I think there's always someone around to yell that the sky is falling.

But he's not saying that. Nothing apocalyptic, just a response to the coming economic decline of the United States.

 

[Aepervius]

*shrug* I am not sure if applying rise and fall of empire is valid, as all of those were pre-mass communication. Anyway at some point in time the US will decay, humanity will decay, and the sun will expand in a red giant and kill all life on earth. Or the universe cold death will get us. So saying that at some point the US country (or any other country) will implode/explode7stop being/go into crisis is quite a captain-obvious type of prediction.

I predict I will die one day. Haha.

Now if he had a prediction of *when* this would happen, and how to avoid that collapse, that would be useful. otherwise the collapse could be next year brutally on us, or in 1524 years.

 

[TFian]

*shrug* I am not sure if applying rise and fall of empire is valid, as all of those were pre-mass communication. Anyway at some point in time the US will decay, humanity will decay, and the sun will expand in a red giant and kill all life on earth. Or the universe cold death will get us. So saying that at some point the US country (or any other country) will implode/explode7stop being/go into crisis is quite a captain-obvious type of prediction.

I predict I will die one day. Haha.

Now if he had a prediction of *when* this would happen, and how to avoid that collapse, that would be useful. otherwise the collapse could be next year brutally on us, or in 1524 years.

He predicts in about 10 years, and he does have a response to the collapse, see his "Green Wizard" project. http://www.greenwizards.org/

What do you mean by mass communications, and how is that relevant?

 

[Kid Eager]

I've just had a thought! Admittedly it's after the consumption of some icy cold Stella Artios, but here goes:

could it be that speed at which empires implode be influenced by the speed of mainstream communications? Specifically, a USA "empire" would deflate considerably faster than say the British Empire not just because of factors already mentioned, but also because of the faster rate at which the rest of the world realises "the empire has not clothes" and responds accordingly?

Owwww... brain hurties. More Stella please. Kthxbye.

 

[gumboot]

Methinks the writer of said piece needs to pay closer attention to history. The notion that empires normally suffer cataclysmic collapses or indeed even necessarily collapse at all, is a rather weak one. The writers grasp of the UK is particularly pathetic, as is their grasp of the fate of their Empire. To attribute the UK's continued success post-empire to being able to "rent their island out to the American military as an unusually large aircraft carrier conveniently anchored right off the shores of Europe" displays an absolutely phenomenal ignorance of the subject matter.

All of this is, of course, even assuming that the USA has an empire, which is higly debatable.

 

[gumboot]

But he's not saying that. Nothing apocalyptic, just a response to the coming economic decline of the United States.

I disagree. He uses the terms "implode", "nightmare", "impoverishment", "political chaos", and "desperately poor" in relation to the USA's future. Most people would consider that fairly apocalyptic. If that happened in the space of a decade (laughable - even the most severe and sudden social collapses in human history happened over much longer time frames) the entire fabric that holds the USA together as a nation would disintegrate. Apocalypse? Maybe not in the spiritual sense, but I don't know any other term that's suitable.

 

[TFian]

I've just had a thought! Admittedly it's after the consumption of some icy cold Stella Artios, but here goes:

could it be that speed at which empires implode be influenced by the speed of mainstream communications? Specifically, a USA "empire" would deflate considerably faster than say the British Empire not just because of factors already mentioned, but also because of the faster rate at which the rest of the world realises "the empire has not clothes" and responds accordingly?

Owwww... brain hurties. More Stella please. Kthxbye.

That's a very good point...., I'll have to keep that in mind

 

[TFian]

Methinks the writer of said piece needs to pay closer attention to history. The notion that empires normally suffer cataclysmic collapses or indeed even necessarily collapse at all, is a rather weak one.

Why's that? Do you have any good counter examples? Are you seriously suggesting Empires don't inevitably fall on average? If so, what about the Romans, Mayans, Ottomans, etc.?

The writers grasp of the UK is particularly pathetic, as is their grasp of the fate of their Empire. To attribute the UK's continued success post-empire to being able to "rent their island out to the American military as an unusually large aircraft carrier conveniently anchored right off the shores of Europe" displays an absolutely phenomenal ignorance of the subject matter.

Tell me then, what do you attribute their post empire success to? The US taking over it's imperial duties has nothing to do with it?

All of this is, of course, even assuming that the USA has an empire, which is higly debatable.

But the USA in so many ways acts like an empire, yes? You don't think the fall of the Spanish Empire makes a good model?

 

[TFian]

I disagree. He uses the terms "implode", "nightmare", "impoverishment", "political chaos", and "desperately poor" in relation to the USA's future. Most people would consider that fairly apocalyptic. If that happened in the space of a decade (laughable - even the most severe and sudden social collapses in human history happened over much longer time frames) the entire fabric that holds the USA together as a nation would disintegrate. Apocalypse? Maybe not in the spiritual sense, but I don't know any other term that's suitable.

Well it's not an apocalypse in the sense that everyone would die, but it would be a wide spread societal collapse, which he indeed predicts in about a decade for the US.

I don't see why it can't happen much quicker, look at the USSR, that collapse happened in the span of a decade.

 

[TubbaBlubba]

I don't see why it can't happen much quicker, look at the USSR, that collapse happened in the span of a decade.

Yes, the CCCP, how could such an invincible superpower forged from the finest of steel, under the guidance of the Glorious Communist Party, fall?

 

[Garrison0fMars]

Yes, the CCCP, how could such an invincible superpower forged from the finest of steel, under the guidance of the Glorious Communist Party, fall?

Uh, well to be fair, I think he's saying it did fail, or am I misunderstanding something?

 

[Garrison0fMars]

If Greer is positing that the American high living standard is dependent on our runaway military spending and the over 1000 military bases we keep around the world to "police" it, he's frankly uninformed, to say the least. (In other words, dependent on the "Empire")

Our runaway military spending is actually a significant factor to WHY our domestic living standard is declining, it is not in fact a positive factor towards it.

He even proclaims "bringing the troops home" (in another post of his I read) would in fact significantly decline our living standard. Uh..., really?

 

[TubbaBlubba]

Uh, well to be fair, I think he's saying it did fail, or am I misunderstanding something?

He's comparing the CCCP to the USA in terms of a society collapsing.

 

[Garrison0fMars]

He's comparing the CCCP to the USA in terms of a society collapsing.

Well there's parallels to be sure, but I wouldn't go as far as Dmitri Orlov territory to say the same thing will happen here. I don't think it's going to be pretty though in the future, unless some factors change. (but not because of Peak oil or whatever)

 

[TFian]

Yes, the CCCP, how could such an invincible superpower forged from the finest of steel, under the guidance of the Glorious Communist Party, fall?

My point is it did, and fairly quickly as well.

 

[TubbaBlubba]

Well there's parallels to be sure, but I wouldn't go as far as Dmitri Orlov territory to say the same thing will happen here. I don't think it's going to be pretty though in the future, unless some factors change. (but not because of Peak oil or whatever)

Well, for one, the US isn't an oppressive dictatorship censoring everything and forcing everyone to work. It is, above all else, mostly open to scrutiny.

The powers of the world will certainly shift, but to suggest that the US will implode a la Soviet is preposterous.

 

[TubbaBlubba]

My point is it did, and fairly quickly as well.

That's probably because the CCCP sucked really really really really hard in just about every regard except maybe aerospace engineering and Vodka disposal.

 

[Garrison0fMars]

Well, for one, the US isn't an oppressive dictatorship censoring everything and forcing everyone to work.

It's certainly not an oppressive dictatorship, but we get more authoritarian by the day. Patriot Act, indefinite detention, the authorized killing of US citizens aboard, TSA nonsense. I think Glenn Gleenwald put it best, authoritarianism in the US has to be handled piece meal, to get the people use to it overtime.

It is, above all else, mostly open to scrutiny.

To a large degree that's true, and I'm quite happy I still very much have freedom of speech here. However I wouldn't say our political system is really open to scrutiny in terms of political power, it's largely designed to keep other views out, through restrictive ballot access laws, exclusive debates, etc.

The powers of the world will certainly shift, but to suggest that the US will implode a la Soviet is preposterous.

Oh of course not, events are rarely carbon copied onto one another, and the US is different in many ways to the USSR. But I do think we'll be seeing a decline of the US within the next few decades, with rising income stratification, and with it declining living standards. Nothing like what Greer says though. No return to "agrarian" nonsense or whatever.