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NIST misrepresented WTC2 fire conditions

e^n

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I have been casually debating on the Loose Change forums for quite a while now and I have encountered only 2 claims that appeared to have serious merit initially. These are:
  • Miragememories' claim that 590mph is far too fast for the more severe estimate of impact (sourced from articles I am not educated on)
  • NK-44's claim that NIST overpredicted WTC2 temperatures based on accounts from survivors travelling in staircases.

The first I would like people to post any relevant sources they may have as I have not had any time to do any investigation and it does seem to have merit.

The second is very interesting, NK-44 claims here that from the accounts of Brian Clarke (2) and Stanley Praimnath the stairwell temperatures within WTC2 should be at 'survivable levels'.

To determine stairwell locations he references these images (all images rehosted on free image hosting sites):

The source of these images is a mystery to me, I recognise the format but I haven't had a good look for them yet.

I won't bother linking the slices from NIST but suffice it to say that as soon as the stairways transfer inside the core NIST predicts extreme values for heat within the stairway. At first glance it appears that NIST has entirely mispredicted either stairwell damage or heat transfer into this area.

However, further analysis reveals that NISTs sources for stairwell location in WTC2 were limited to the 78th floor only:
NIST NCSTAR 1-5F Appendix A (Page 117) said:
The following pages contain the architectural plans for floors 92 through 99 of WTC 1 and 78 through 82 of WTC 2. The plans for WTC 1 were provided by Marsh & McLennan, and the drawings shown here are electronic renderings of the original plans. Only the 78th floor plan was available for WTC 2. The basic layout from the 78th floor was used for the higher floors with adjustments made to the elevators, vents and major partitions based on recollections of floor occupants.
Click to expand...

Here in fact is the layout NIST used for floor 78 and above:


It turns out that NIST never transferred stairwells inside the core primarily because the analysis of this section never included floors above #83, meaning nobody ever noticed the stairwell suddenly transferring between outside and inside the core.

It is a fascinating claim and one that I feel embodies the true spirit of the 'truther' community, that is asking genuine questions backed by genuine evidence.

The purpose of my post here is simply to gather more information about either of the above claims but specifically the sources for stairwell plans or any more information about Mr Clarke/Praimnath's decent. If you have it, please post it!
 
The NIST temperature simulations he uses are from 15 minutes to 1 hour after the start of the fire. Clark and Praimnath were long gone by then.

Stairway A was survivable because it was the farthest from the impact point and was protected by elevator machinery.

At no point were the stairways outside the core.
 
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Gravy said:
The NIST temperature simulations he uses are from 15 minutes to 1 hour after the start of the fire. Clark and Praimnath were long gone by then.

Stairwell A was survivable because it was the farthest from the impact point and was protected by elevator machinery.
Click to expand...

Well from the quotes he provided 10-20 minutes after impact seems reasonable and I am not entirely sure about the elevator machinery claim, I haven't read any sections of the NIST report dealing with elevator machinery locations so if you could give me any page numbers / links I would really appreciate it.

Regardless it does seem NIST slightly wrongly modelled the upper two floors of impact, not enough to require a new simulation but one of the first solid claims of errors in the report I believe.

edit:
At no point were the stairways outside the core.
Click to expand...
Well I don't mean to be offensive but the NIST report seems to disagree with you here, the floor plan I posted was from NCSTAR 1-5F and showed stairwell A located outside the perimeter of the core?
 
e^n said:
Well from the quotes he provided 10-20 minutes after impact seems reasonable
Click to expand...
I've learned that temporal estimates from people in the midst of that chaos should not be relied on without other verification. They can be extremely unreliable.

and I am not entirely sure about the elevator machinery claim, I haven't read any sections of the NIST report dealing with elevator machinery locations so if you could give me any page numbers / links I would really appreciate it.
Click to expand...
I was basing that on an article about the stairway A survivors, but looking at the elevation drawings for Elevator Zone 3, that doesn't appear to be the case: just shaftways. At any rate, it was the farthest from the impact point.

Well I don't mean to be offensive but the NIST report seems to disagree with you here, the floor plan I posted was from NCSTAR 1-5F and showed stairwell A located outside the perimeter of the core?
Click to expand...
No offense taken! I should have been clearer: although outside the core columns, those stairways are part of the "core" in that they're enclosed like those above and below. The wallboard enclosure extends beyond the core columns.
 
Gravy said:
I've learned that temporal estimates from people in the midst of that chaos should not be relied on without other verification. They can be extremely unreliable.
Click to expand...
Agreed, I only mention it because we should (ideally) bias things as much as possible towards the conspiracy side of things

I was basing that on an article about the stairway A survivors, but looking at the elevation drawings for Elevator Zone 3, that doesn't appear to be the case: just shaftways. At any rate, it was the farthest from the impact point.
Click to expand...
Indeed, protected on the majority of the floors by literally all of the core columns NISTs damage projections and lower level fire predictions do seem to match the reported damage, that is 'fire licking up cracks in the wall'.

No offense taken! I should have been clearer: although outside the core columns, those stairways are part of the "core" in that they're enclosed like those above and below. The wallboard enclosure extends beyond the core columns.
Click to expand...
Agreed, they were enclosed nominally and were in no way somehow 'open staircases'.
 
e^n said:
Agreed, I only mention it because we should (ideally) bias things as much as possible towards the conspiracy side of things
Click to expand...

Why on Earth should that be the ideal?
 
quixotecoyote said:
Why on Earth should that be the ideal?
Click to expand...

Because there can be no allegations of bias if every factor is weighted in favour of conspiracy claims. Of course this doesn't reflect reality for things like the NIST report which should place no weight on any particular hypothesis without good reason but when debating with a group as stubborn as CTs can be I think it is the prudent course.
 
Okay, I read NK-44's claim. He misplaces the A stairway. In the graphic below, he places a black rectangle around where he thinks that stairway is: in a hot zone. He's wrong. The A stairway is the small cool blue zone to the left of that box, above the blue express elevator bank (there's also an A/C shaft there, where the bluest part is). That area stays blue/blue-green throughout the NIST simulations.
floor81iq3.png


Edit: Also, since the stairwell didn't have a ceiling there, the "upper level" temperature for that area doesn't really apply.
 
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Gravy said:
Okay, I read NK-44's claim. He misplaces the A stairway. In the graphic below, he places a black rectangle around where he thinks that stairway is: in a hot zone. He's wrong. The A stairway is the small cool blue zone to the left of that box, above the blue express elevator bank (there's also an A/C shaft there, where the bluest part is). That area stays blue/blue-green throughout the NIST simulations.
[qimg]http://img383.imageshack.us/img383/8090/floor81iq3.png[/qimg]

Edit: Also, since the stairwell didn't have a ceiling there, the "upper level" temperature for that area doesn't really apply.
Click to expand...

Indeed, I noticed this and added it in a later post, he's also slightly misrepresenting the size of the staircase unless it really was over 18ft in width.
 
So, there goes his argument. Am I missing something?
 
Gravy said:
So, there goes his argument. Am I missing something?
Click to expand...

Nothing, only I found it surprising that it was actually based on facts and NISTs simulations. It doesn't show anything NIST didn't already mention (they freely admit how they modelled the floors) and it was what appears to be an innocent error which caused his other major flaw. I hope we see more of this sort of debate rather than the tiring name calling that seems to be the norm.

Incidentally don't you think it's funny that 'truthers' will say how you and I are dogmatically bound to resist any changes to our views, yet we had a polite disagreement over stairwell locations and elevator machinery. You responded politely and so did I, we resolved the issues and came to a conclusion. This is how debates should be done :(
 
You make a good point. He definitely gets credit for reading the NIST report, finding what he believed was a mistake, doing some research, and making a non-kooky, falsifiable claim. He was wrong, but wrong in the right way.

Either that, or we're getting soft. :D
 
e^n said:
I have been casually debating on the Loose Change forums for quite a while now and I have encountered only 2 claims that appeared to have serious merit initially. These are:
  • Miragememories' claim that 590mph is far too fast for the more severe estimate of impact (sourced from articles I am not educated on)
Click to expand...
 
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Kent1 said:
A note to clarify FEMA and the ASCE state 590.
http://www.fema.gov/pdf/library/fema403_ch2.pdf
570 was a number NIST used among other variables in its severe case model.
503 is used by Kausel
Click to expand...

Correct as usual.

I've been
Edited by Lisa Simpson: 
Inappropriate remark removed.
Miragememories on this issue in this post and follow-ups. He seems to think that (1) 767's couldn't go that fast, since it's above their normal speed, (2) since the early study by Dr. Kausel came up with a lower number, everyone who got a higher number is wrong, and (3) NIST cranked up the number until they got the result they wanted. Never mind that he has no evidence for any of this.

In actual fact, NIST believes the impact speed was 542 MPH +/- 24. Their preferred impact model case uses 570 MPH as an input condition. However, they did not vary the speed independently -- that 570 MPH model is conflated with greater mass, shallower impact angle, higher aircraft ductility (think "strength") and less building furniture.

Just because the best-fit model result used 570 MPH doesn't mean they think the plane was traveling at 570 MPH. What's important is the totality of the model result, not the specific conditions that gave us that result -- provided the inputs are plausible, which they are. The speed of the aircraft is but one of many factors, and may also be compensating for a model that is overconservative in some totally different way.

Good luck trying to convince him of that, though.
 
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Gravy said:
You make a good point. He definitely gets credit for reading the NIST report, finding what he believed was a mistake, doing some research, and making a non-kooky, falsifiable claim. He was wrong, but wrong in the right way.

Either that, or we're getting soft. :D
Click to expand...


I'm with you on this. To be quite honest I don't mind when Truthers come back with sensible points having thought long and heard, plus done some real reading. He may be wrong, but hats off to him for the rough working.
 
e^n said:
I have been casually debating on the Loose Change forums for quite a while now and I have encountered only 2 claims that appeared to have serious merit initially. These are:
  • Miragememories' claim that 590mph is far too fast for the more severe estimate of impact (sourced from articles I am not educated on)
  • NK-44's claim that NIST overpredicted WTC2 temperatures based on accounts from survivors travelling in staircases.
The first I would like people to post any relevant sources they may have as I have not had any time to do any investigation and it does seem to have merit.

The second is very interesting, NK-44 claims here that from the accounts of Brian Clarke (2) and Stanley Praimnath the stairwell temperatures within WTC2 should be at 'survivable levels'.

To determine stairwell locations he references these images (all images rehosted on free image hosting sites):
http://xs.to/xs.php?h=xs216&d=07225&f=stairway7783tt8.jpghttp://xs216.xs.to/xs216/07225/stairway7783tt8.jpg.xs.jpghttp://xs.to/xs.php?h=xs216&d=07225&f=stairway82hj5.jpghttp://xs216.xs.to/xs216/07225/stairway82hj5.jpg.xs.jpghttp://xs.to/xs.php?h=xs216&d=07225&f=stairway83qb1.jpghttp://xs216.xs.to/xs216/07225/stairway83qb1.jpg.xs.jpg
The source of these images is a mystery to me, I recognise the format but I haven't had a good look for them yet.

I won't bother linking the slices from NIST but suffice it to say that as soon as the stairways transfer inside the core NIST predicts extreme values for heat within the stairway. At first glance it appears that NIST has entirely mispredicted either stairwell damage or heat transfer into this area.

However, further analysis reveals that NISTs sources for stairwell location in WTC2 were limited to the 78th floor only:


Here in fact is the layout NIST used for floor 78 and above:
http://xs.to/xs.php?h=xs216&d=07225&f=nist-78th-plan.pnghttp://xs216.xs.to/xs216/07225/nist-78th-plan.png.xs.jpg

It turns out that NIST never transferred stairwells inside the core primarily because the analysis of this section never included floors above #83, meaning nobody ever noticed the stairwell suddenly transferring between outside and inside the core.

It is a fascinating claim and one that I feel embodies the true spirit of the 'truther' community, that is asking genuine questions backed by genuine evidence.

The purpose of my post here is simply to gather more information about either of the above claims but specifically the sources for stairwell plans or any more information about Mr Clarke/Praimnath's decent. If you have it, please post it!
Click to expand...

Correction e^n 570 mph.

MM
 
Edited by chillzero: 
Removing deleted post from quote[/mod]
Thus you agree with the speed of 570. ? Or has you spam campaign not ended.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
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