New Bush Cabinet Position

[Rob Lister]

If you can do it, keep the rhetoric to a low roar.

My preliminary predictions:

1) Rummy -- I don't want to say out-of-there 'cause I like him but I can't find another seat at the table that suits him.
2) Powell -- SecDef (I'm pretty sure that's what he wants but see note below*)
3) Condi -- SecState with Wolfowitz taking NSA.














* I think Cheney is going to ...retire... for medical reasons. Powell may be his replacement. It's just a gut feeling and I won't swear by it. I'd like that position to go to Condi but I'm not sure the GOP is brave enough to brave it. Bush might be but they'll talk him out of it. Plus, I'm not certain she'd even want it (yet).

 

[Matabiri]

2) Powell -- SecDef (I'm pretty sure that's what he wants but see note below*)
* I think Cheney is going to ...retire... for medical reasons. Powell may be his replacement. It's just a gut feeling and I won't swear by it. I'd like that position to go to Condi but I'm not sure the GOP is brave enough to brave it. Bush might be but they'll talk him out of it. Plus, I'm not certain she'd even want it (yet).

I'm not sure Powell would be offered/take it. He's looked and sounded really quite uncomfortable recently - I got the impression that he was the Morgan Freeman voice of the administration; the guy they could send to the UN to say anything, and I think he's fed up of being exploited like that. However, I could be wrong.

 

[Rob Lister]

Re: Re: New Bush Cabinet Position

I'm not sure Powell would be offered/take it. He's looked and sounded really quite uncomfortable recently - I got the impression that he was the Morgan Freeman voice of the administration; the guy they could send to the UN to say anything, and I think he's fed up of being exploited like that. However, I could be wrong.

Exploited? ... Nevermind. It's beside the point and far too rhetorical.

I know that he wants something "different" because he has said so in more than one interview on more than one network. He has not clarified what "different" means. I'm open to suggestions but the only other seat I can find at the cabinet [level] table is SecDef. Surely he's not looking for a demotion. VP or SecDef is all I can see.

 

[Matabiri]

Re: Re: Re: New Bush Cabinet Position

Exploited? ... Nevermind. It's beside the point and far too rhetorical.

Sorry, just noticed how that could be taken - I meant that that was the impression I got of how he felt, not as a value judgement on the administration. He's still highly liked and trusted by people at home and overseas, but his image is certainly tarnished in the UK by association.

I know that he wants something "different" because he has said so in more than one interview on more than one network. He has not clarified what "different" means. I'm open to suggestions but the only other seat I can find at the cabinet [level] table is SecDef. Surely he's not looking for a demotion. VP or SecDef is all I can see.

I haven't seen those interviews. Do you have any links?

But would it have to be cabinet? Why not move completely aside and become, say, an ambassador?

 

[Rob Lister]

Re: Re: Re: Re: New Bush Cabinet Position

I haven't seen those interviews. Do you have any links?

But would it have to be cabinet? Why not move completely aside and become, say, an ambassador?

I don't have any links, sorry. I could hunt for transcripts but I don't think it's worth it for purposes of this thread.

Ambassador? Far below cabinet level. Huge demotion? Yes if he has further political ambitions (because he's getting old). Maybe though. Sometimes power is not the end-goal for people in the power game. What country do you think he wants?

 

[Savagemutt]

If you can do it, keep the rhetoric to a low roar.

My preliminary predictions:

1) Rummy -- I don't want to say out-of-there 'cause I like him but I can't find another seat at the table that suits him.
2) Powell -- SecDef (I'm pretty sure that's what he wants but see note below*)
3) Condi -- SecState with Wolfowitz taking NSA.

* I think Cheney is going to ...retire... for medical reasons. Powell may be his replacement. It's just a gut feeling and I won't swear by it. I'd like that position to go to Condi but I'm not sure the GOP is brave enough to brave it. Bush might be but they'll talk him out of it. Plus, I'm not certain she'd even want it (yet).

I could see Condi as Sec State, but not Powell as Def. He's too cautious and wishy-washy for this administration. And he's spent too much time with the Foggy Bottom folks.

I suspect he'll resign, but not as part of any post-election shakeup. They'll wait a respectable period of time before he's pushed out.

But its important to note that I'm always wrong about these things.

 

[Rob Lister]

Re: Re: New Bush Cabinet Position

But its important to note that I'm always wrong about these things.

Me too. And I'm just as proud of it.

 

[Matabiri]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: New Bush Cabinet Position

Ambassador? Far below cabinet level. Huge demotion? Yes if he has further political ambitions (because he's getting old). Maybe though. Sometimes power is not the end-goal for people in the power game. What country do you think he wants?

Good question. This is absolutely pure speculation on my part, of course, but I think he'd be welcome in any of the major European countries, although he'd get fed up of the relentless America-bashing in the press.

 

[BPSCG]

My take:

1) Powell (and more importantly, his wife) does not want to be president, so he's not going to be looking for career credentials. And I think the last time a cabinet secretary later became president was 1928 - Hoover.

He might just retire and write his memoirs, waiting until December 2008 to publish them, to make sure anything embarrassing doesn't hurt Bush or the '08 Republican nominee.

2) Cheney remains as VP barring a real health issue. He has real power where he is, and with an increased GOP senate majority, he can spend more time at 1600 Penn than at the Capitol.

If Cheney resigns, Rice becomes VP if she's interested in the top job in '08. That is far from a foregone conclusion

3) Rice becomes Secretary of State if Powell resigns, not necessarily as a career move (see last sentence in 1) above), but because she is clearly the best person for the job.

4) If Rumsfeld resigns/retires, look for Bush to pick out a moderate Democratic senator from a fairly conservative-to-moderate state (don't know off the top of my head if there's anything out there that fills the bill). Precedent: Clinton picked Republican William Cohen from Maine.

5) Look for two, maybe three new faces on the Supreme Court in the next year, replacing Rehnquist, O'Connor, and (maybe) Stevens. Stevens would like to retire, and would if Kerry had been elected. Look for Bush to appoint a surprisingly centrist judge as replacement for Stevens - with a 6-3 conservative majority on the bench, Bush wouldn't feel he has have to appoint a doctrinaire conservative. Of course, Supreme court appointees have a way of disappointing their presidents once they get that lifetime appointment...

 

[Savagemutt]

My take:


4) If Rumsfeld resigns/retires, look for Bush to pick out a moderate Democratic senator from a fairly conservative-to-moderate state (don't know off the top of my head if there's anything out there that fills the bill). Precedent: Clinton picked Republican William Cohen from Maine.

Interesting thought. How about Sam Nunn?

 

[easycruise]

Interesting thought. How about Sam Nunn?

Bingo, I think you nailed it.

 

[Rob Lister]

Bingo, I think you nailed it.

And didn't bend it in the hitting. Nunn is a real possibility.

 

[BPSCG]

Interesting thought. How about Sam Nunn?

I was thinking along the lines of someone who was actually still in the Senate. This would be a blatantly political move - kick upstairs a Democratic senator from a state with a GOP governor; GOP governor then appoints a GOP senator.

But Nunn would certainly be a plausible candidate.

BTW, while we're in the prognostication game, let me point out that second terms are rarely as successful as first ones. I think it may be because when you're first elected, you bring along your best and brightest. Four years later, a lot of them are tired of the job and are ready to leave, and you're having to bring in the second string.

I think Rice replacing Powell would be a net plus; she's brilliant and has a world view much closer to Bush than Powell does.

But who are you going to get that's better than Rumsfeld? He had the guts to take on the military when it was clearly wrong, killing wasteful weapons projects even when it made him unpopular with the three-stars. Nunn might be competent and knowledgeable, but he's a career politician; what's his executive experience?

 

[Matabiri]

IBTW, while we're in the prognostication game, let me point out that second terms are rarely as successful as first ones. I think it may be because when you're first elected, you bring along your best and brightest. Four years later, a lot of them are tired of the job and are ready to leave, and you're having to bring in the second string.

Interesting article here comparing Reagan's second term to Bush's future one, in the context of their first terms. Although given Bush's problems with admitting any mistakes or differences of opinion, we may not be lucky.

 

[The Don]

Cheney retires in 2006 - JEB takes over as Veep

JEB in 2008 !!!!!!!

 

[Savagemutt]

I was thinking along the lines of someone who was actually still in the Senate. This would be a blatantly political move - kick upstairs a Democratic senator from a state with a GOP governor; GOP governor then appoints a GOP senator.

Well, that's a much tougher egg to crack.

 

[Rob Lister]

Cheney retires in 2006 - JEB takes over as Veep

JEB in 2008 !!!!!!!

I've looked at Jeb a bit. I don't think he's even going to try. I could be wrong. Very wrong. But he's not going to be his brother's VP.

Another prediction: Rudy as Homeland Security?

??

!!!

Ridge is out-of-there, and I feel no remorse. It isn't that I don't like him (even though I don't) but I just don't think he has the ... word elludes as usual ... the 'personality' to make the most of the position.

Rudy has ...that word... but I think he may have set his political goals a bit higher. If so, more power to him but I think he'd wear the HS hat better than anyone.

 

[Matabiri]

Speculation from the Telegraph:

The key to any jobs merry-go-round is Donald Rumsfeld, the hyper-confident 72-year-old defence secretary, who is almost as unpopular a figure abroad as his boss. He infuriated France and Germany when he dismissed them as "Old Europe" and his glib ways are seen by the administration's critics as epitomising its faults.
...
Mr Rumsfeld's thinking has particular impact on his great rival, Colin Powell, the secretary of state, who over the past four years has lost most big policy battles to the Pentagon chief.

Mr Powell's allies have let slip hints that he is wearied by the in-fighting, fed up by the role of ideology on policy and has no desire to stay.

State department insiders also say he is infuriated at the idea of Mr Rumsfeld outlasting him. But while he might act the loyal soldier once more, the betting is he will leave, probably with his pugnacious and highly regarded deputy, Richard Armitage.
...
A frontrunner for Mr Powell's post is John (Jack) Danforth, a former senator who was recently appointed ambassador at the United Nations. "Investment in his stock has risen in the last few months," said one source.
...
Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser, has indicated that she wants to leave her post and has been cited as a possible first female defence secretary. She has been criticised for failing to mediate between the Pentagon and state department chiefs, but is adored by Mr Bush, who is expected to fight to keep her in Washington.
...
Among the contenders for her job are her deputy, Steven Hadley, and Robert Blackwill, Mr Bush's presidential envoy to Iraq, who is seen as an independent thinker.

The deputy defence secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, has also been cited as a possible national security adviser or even secretary of state.
...
The highest-profile domestic casualty is expected to be the ultra-conservative attorney general, John Ashcroft, whose record, for some, has damaged America's reputation on civil liberties.

 

[aerocontrols]

Ashcroft, Reno, Meese...


I can't think of any reason why someone with a good reputation would want to sully it by becoming Attorney General.

I predict some DA out of a city like Houston or Dallas or another big city in another red state - Phoenix or Miami, maybe?

 

[BPSCG]

Speculation from the Telegraph:

The key to any jobs merry-go-round is Donald Rumsfeld, the hyper-confident 72-year-old defence secretary, who is almost as unpopular a figure abroad as his boss. He infuriated France and Germany when he dismissed them as "Old Europe" and his glib ways are seen by the administration's critics as epitomising its faults.

I think this may have touched on something that illuminates why the Europeans hate Bush & Co. so much.

Europeans so often describe Bush and his advisors as "arrogant," and that quote above supports that feeling about the current administration. I note they speak much more warmly about Powell, who, as a diplomat, has to guard his language as part of his everyday job.

But what strikes Europeans as "arrogant" (and to be fair, many Americans, too), strikes a lot of Americans as "self-confident." If you weren't in this country in 1979, when inflation was 12%, mortgage rates were sky-high, gasoline (petrol) prices were even higher in real-dollar terms than today, and 52 American hostages were being held by a bunch of "students" in Teheran, you have no idea how angry and depressed this country was. And when President Carter got on the TV, wearing a cardigan sweater (to encourage us to turn down the thermostats), and told us we were suffering from "national malaise" and that it was our fault that everything was falling apart, not the fault of the leaders we had elected, he angered a lot of people.

Americans like presidents who lead. Carter's successor, Reagan, was such a refreshing change, because he inspired confidence. You never doubted what he stood for and when things went bad, he didn't blame the voter (usually, he had loyal subordinates like Oliver North and John Poindexter, who would fall on their swords for him). Reagan radiated supreme self-confidence; during one visit to Europe, his speechwriters and wise men desperately tried to get him to soften his language in a speech he was scheduled to deliver. Reagan refused, and loudly and publicly demanded, "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" You can't imagine how proud it felt to be an American that day.

Americans may be closely divided on Bush, and we'll have to see how his second term works out before we can start writing the history books about him. But our history books will treat him more kindly if he takes clear stands and takes clear actions, and fails, than if he makes every decision with his finger in the wind of international public opinion, and fails.