The high-water mark for Washington's neo-cons may already have passed, writes Scott Burchill.
If events in Iraq continue on their present trajectory, the window of opportunity that neo-conservatives in Washington seized after the September 11 attacks will soon close.
The two-year window - which enabled Washington and its loyal allies to invade two countries and dispatch both governments (Afghanistan, Iraq), reconfigure US strategic doctrine from deterrence to pre-emption, ratchet up pressure on "rogue states" and "evil" regimes (Iran, North Korea, Syria), and declare war on terrorism - is closing for two reasons.
First, on the ground in occupied Iraq, Washington is slowly realising the limits of its power. For all its technological sophistication and military superiority, the Bush Administration is learning a painful lesson about the historical fate of colonialists in the Middle East.
Second, with opinion polls turning and George Bush putting his mind to the campaign for the presidential election in November next year, it is highly unlikely he will risk opening a new front in the "war against terrorism".
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Things have not gone according to plan for the neo-cons and their colleagues.
In Afghanistan, the Government of Hamid Karzai struggles to extend its power beyond the fringes of the capital Kabul, while warlords, the Taliban and the poppy growers resume their nefarious activities. Donors who pledged billions for rebuilding the state have reneged or gone missing, Washington has lost interest and been distracted by Iraq, while Karzai himself needs US bodyguards to forestall his assassination by political rivals.
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One effect of the war has been to encourage nuclear proliferation in Iran and North Korea, which now understand that only nuclear weapons will deter a US attack. Hardly the desired result.
