Need help - please give examples of predictive power of evolution

dogjones

Graduate Poster
dogjones
Joined
Oct 3, 2005
Messages
1,303
Appreciate there may have been threads on this before, but my search tool isn't working. Am debating an IDer. Please can you give me very specific examples of using evolutionary biology to predict a biological outcome?

Predictions along the lines of "we expect to find this sort of evidence if evolution is correct" are cool, but not as helpful, because this IDer thinks they are not really predictions!

I need biological equivalent of say, calculating the trajectory of a cannon ball in physics.

Many thanks in advance

Dog
 
According to the wiki article on Nylonase, creationists don't accept Nylonase as evidence of evolution. :rolleyes:

Why even bother debating with someone when they claim that not only is the sky not blue, not even pink, but rather a red-and-black plaid!
 
Last edited:
It sounds like you want something such as, "Evolutionary biology predicts zebras will become venomous in response to the selective pressure put upon them by predators." But that's not how evolution works. One cannot predict specific evolutionary outcomes because they are a function of selective pressure and random mutations. Perhaps they'll grow longer legs to run faster, or better camouflage, or improve visual and olfactory acuity to better perceive lions. There's no way to know for sure.
 
Neil Shubin looked at the evolutionary record of four-legged animals ("tetrapods") and fish. If evolution was responsible for some fish lineage evolving into a land animal, there had to be some sort of intermediate stage where some fish developed semi-useful legs---and, more specifically, this fish had to have lived 375 million years ago (just before the first fossil tetrapods). Shubin went digging in a 375 MY old riverbed and turned up Tiktaalik fossils---a fish with semi-supportive bony pectoral fins.

It's not just what evolution predicted ("some sort of bony-finned fish") but also where and when (shallow water, 375 Mya).

That's my favorite example, and the fish itself is a real beauty. Hello, grandpa!
 
Humans have 23 pair of chromosomes while our ape cousins have 24. According to the idea that we share a common ancestor, we should be able to find in our chromosomes a place where two ape chromosomes were merged into one. This was predicted and found.
 
chulbert said:
It sounds like you want something such as, "Evolutionary biology predicts zebras will become venomous in response to the selective pressure put upon them by predators." But that's not how evolution works. One cannot predict specific evolutionary outcomes because they are a function of selective pressure and random mutations. Perhaps they'll grow longer legs to run faster, or better camouflage, or improve visual and olfactory acuity to better perceive lions. There's no way to know for sure.
Click to expand...

To add to this, what is thought to happen is, a species will mutate, for no reason, not caused by outside forces like predators or climate, and the mutated species will either die off, or survive. The original species will also either die off or survive. There is no way to predict a) what the mutations will be, or b) whether this mutation will help or hinder the species.
 
In Stephen Jay Gould's books, he always described evolution as "quirky" and "based on contingencies". Unrepeatable.

As Cthulbert and Caryip say, variations occur and either prosper or not.
 
A recent one is that the fossil record suggests modern birds evolved from dinosaurs. It follows that dinosaur biochemistry would be most closely matched with Avians over other classes. But until recently, we didn't have remains to analyze.

Fortunately, there were recent findings of dinosaur remains that contained fragments of organic material. Of all living classes, these proteins are closest to those of Aves.
 
Another good one is the prediction that the endogenous retroviruses will map to clades. This is the case.
 
While they may not understand any of the above suggestions, plus they don't trust scientists (they are evil and they lie).

How about the Flu vaccine, the theory of evolution is used to predict what strains of flue we will need to be protected against in the following year. I am sure they will have a canned response but at least it may be something they can relate to.
 
JCL said:
While they may not understand any of the above suggestions, plus they don't trust scientists (they are evil and they lie).
Click to expand...

Sounds like my gravitational lensing guy: if he doesn't like the data, he just says it's a lie. Don't have high expectations of winning an argument against somebody who has decided you cannot possibly present him with information that might change his mind.

I always suggest: debate for the audience.



JCL said:
How about the Flu vaccine, the theory of evolution is used to predict what strains of flue we will need to be protected against in the following year. I am sure they will have a canned response but at least it may be something they can relate to.
Click to expand...

Actually, I don't think the flu vaccines are predicted with any special use of evolutionary theory: they are predicting what strains will hit the world, based on the dominant strains in southeast Asia before the season begins. The pattern for influenza is that the new strains usually come out of rural Asia.
 
Oh, wait, we're trying to convince Vox Day readers? I suspect that examples-from-biology aren't going to do the trick. My impression of Vox Day suggests that the following argument might work:

In 2015, a horde of Al-Qaeda sleeper agents will emerge from their deep cover as (a) Mexican immigrant atheist gun-control advocates on welfare (b) feminist IRS/ATF agents with maternity leave, and (c) African-American communist abortion clinic defense attorneys. Their mission: turn everyone gay. They can be stopped only by paintball guns, blog posts about homemade nunchaku, and an unshakeable trust in the Modern Evolutionary Synthesis. Who will save America? Who will dare? The Vox Day commentariat may be the only ones brave and skilled enough---unless misunderstanding of Darwin proves to be their fatal weakness. Only time will tell.

That might be the only way to get through to them---less logic, more bigotry.
 
Last edited:
[swiki]Chromosome 2[/swiki]. Just written, may contain typos. Or how about [swiki]Intermediate Forms[/swiki]?
 
Last edited:
I say cats to this. When cats were worshiped by the Egyptians they was only one or two breeds of domestic cat in the world. Now there are heaps of breeds. Where they came from is all documented.

When the first European crashed in Australia they released many cats. These cats are now different from domestic cats in that they are bigger. Something has happened to allow this to happen. Answer evolution. If left to themselves they will be another species in a few thousand years.

If you want to go further back in history there are several animals that are closely related and are all types of cats. Lions, chetahs, tigers, domestic cat, wild cats etc. They all have many features in common. This would happen if evolution was true.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom