National Emergency

[acbytesla]

It appears as if Trump is going to declare a National Emergency to get his wall. I'm confident that the courts will rule this does not constitute an emergency. But no question, this will be a Constitutional crisis as the power of the purse belongs to Congress.

Trump and the GOP are being shortsighted if they allow this opening of Pandora's box where POTUS can declare what he pleases as an emergency. What's to stop future President's from banning guns based on that it constitutes a national health emergency?
Or implementing environmental laws based on the fact that global warming constitutes an "emergency?

Where does it end?

 

[William Parcher]

My prediction was that he would continue to shut down government until he gets the wall. He would shut it down multiple times if that is what is required to get the wall.

Or maybe he does try the National Emergency and then if that's rejected he goes back to shutting down.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

How can you tell this is any different from his ranting about declaring an emergency for the last few months?

 

[crescent]

My prediction was that he would continue to shut down government until he gets the wall. He would shut it down multiple times if that is what is required to get the wall.

Or maybe he does try the National Emergency and then if that's rejected he goes back to shutting down.

If he signs the budget then things are funded through the end of September. He would not be able to have a shutdown until then, regardless of how the national emergency works out.

 

[dudalb]

Cause it's not clear he is not getting the fence money from congress,and not to declare the state of emergency would him look like he is weak and has thrown in the towel,and that might finally do some real damage to his base.

 

[William Parcher]

If he signs the budget then things are funded through the end of September. He would not be able to have a shutdown until then, regardless of how the national emergency works out.

My prediction was that he would not sign and then do another shutdown. So yeah, if I'm right then we will have another shutdown starting next week.

 

[William Parcher]

I hope that my prediction is wrong because I don't want more shutdowns and I don't want a wall.

 

[acbytesla]

My prediction was that he would continue to shut down government until he gets the wall. He would shut it down multiple times if that is what is required to get the wall.

Or maybe he does try the National Emergency and then if that's rejected he goes back to shutting down.

He CANT just shut it down. It doesn't work that way.

 

[JoeMorgue]

//Moved from other thread//

The emergencies he declared before were local and related to natural disasters;this is a lot different.

No a National Emergency is completely different from a State of Emergency. There's never been a National Emergency declared over a natural disaster.

Trump has issued 3 National Emergency declarations in his Presidency, all are still in affect.

On December 20, 2017 - Blocking the Property of Persons Involved in Serious Human Rights Abuse or Corruption (Executive Order 13818)[100] – Imposed sanctions due to the Rohingya conflict in Myanmar, specifically against general Maung Maung Soe.

September 12, 2018 - Imposing Certain Sanctions in the Event of Foreign Interference in a United States Election (Executive Order 13848)

November 27, 2018 -Blocking Property of Certain Persons Contributing to the Situation in Nicaragua (Executive Order 13851) – Announces certain sanctions against current and former Daniel Ortega government officials engaging in human rights abuse or corruption.

Again in total 31 of the 58 National Emergencies ever declared are still in effect (and 4 more seem to be in this weird "not in effect but we never actually officially rescinded them" state)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_national_emergencies_in_the_United_States

 

[crescent]

I'll try again.

The government budget expires about 29 hours from now.

Or maybe he does try the National Emergency and then if that's rejected he goes back to shutting down.

A declaration of National Emergency would be presumed valid (legally) until proven otherwise. If there is enough doubt to convince a judge, the judge can implement a stay of the declaration.

In your scenario, all of that would have to happen within the next 29 hours.

If he does not declare the National Emergency before then, there will be no time to petition a court. There would be no way for him to judge the failure or success of the Emergency declaration before the budget expires.

All of the reports have stated that he will sign the budget and declare victory through the Emergency. He might do them both more or less at the same time.

 

[The Shrike]

Absolute disgrace to be clearing that big swath through those floodplain forests along the Lower Rio Grande. The heavy equipment down there now? That's the national emergency.

 

[dudalb]

Remember this:

"Emergency! Emergency! Everybody to be getting off street!".

 

[acbytesla]

Remember this:

"Emergency! Emergency! Everybody to be getting off street!".

Totally apropos. Never forget, the Russians are coming!

 

[William Parcher]

Absolute disgrace to be clearing that big swath through those floodplain forests along the Lower Rio Grande. The heavy equipment down there now? That's the national emergency.

I think the wall is an ecological disaster. For many animals it's a barrier like none other. The ocelots and jaguars can no longer move between the countries.

 

[William Parcher]

I'll try again.

The government budget expires about 29 hours from now.



A declaration of National Emergency would be presumed valid (legally) until proven otherwise. If there is enough doubt to convince a judge, the judge can implement a stay of the declaration.

In your scenario, all of that would have to happen within the next 29 hours.

If he does not declare the National Emergency before then, there will be no time to petition a court. There would be no way for him to judge the failure or success of the Emergency declaration before the budget expires.

All of the reports have stated that he will sign the budget and declare victory through the Emergency. He might do them both more or less at the same time.

My original and still standing prediction is that he will not sign the budget tomorrow and government will shut down again.

 

[newyorkguy]

USA Today reported about three hours ago:

President Donald Trump will declare a national emergency to speed up funding for his proposed wall on the U.S.-Mexican border, but experts said the move would create a legal morass that could take until the middle of next year to resolve. The White House announced Thursday that Trump will make the move that he'd suggested for weeks. Link

This is what Donnie said:

"What will happen? I'll be sued. It'll be brought to the 9th Circuit. We'll probably lose there, too," Trump said. "And then hopefully we'll win in the Supreme Court."

 

[acbytesla]

My original and still standing prediction is that he will not sign the budget tomorrow and government will shut down again.

If he does, he will just prove he's an idiot and a glutton for punishment.

 

[Belz...]

What's to stop future President's from banning guns based on that it constitutes a national health emergency?
Or implementing environmental laws based on the fact that global warming constitutes an "emergency?

The fact that the President doesn't pass laws, primarily.

 

[newyorkguy]

Pelosi doesn't like it, calling it an "end run around Congress." She also said:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Thursday issued a warning to Republicans poised to support President Trump's decision to declare a national emergency at the southern border: the next Democratic president, she said, could do the same on guns. Link

 

[acbytesla]

USA Today reported about three hours ago:

President Donald Trump will declare a national emergency to speed up funding for his proposed wall on the U.S.-Mexican border, but experts said the move would create a legal morass that could take until the middle of next year to resolve. The White House announced Thursday that Trump will make the move that he'd suggested for weeks. Link

This is what Donnie said:

What will happen? I'll be sued. It'll be brought to the 9th Circuit. We'll probably lose there, too," Trump said. "And then hopefully we'll win in the Supreme Court."

I'm telling you all again, this is theater. Trump understands the law, but doesn't want to look bad. He CANNOT shut the government down again. That was a disaster.
He also KNOWS the courts will say no. But it's the optics he cares about. This way he can declare victory and keep blaming everyone else. He can get the crazies off his back and can even use this to rally them.