Mortality of HIV-positive people - very low!?

[Oystein]

In the news yesterday here in Germany is a press release by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) about HIV statistics/estimates for 2014.
http://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Service/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2015/08_2015.html

The numbers are, quickly:

• 83,400 people in Germany are HIV-positive
• 13,200 of these do not know yet that they are positive
• 3,200 people were newly infected during 2014
• 480 HIV-positive people have died in 2014

As the second number makes apparent, these numbers are not based on registered cases but are estimates including the dark field.
They don't specify whether the 480 death cases were from AIDS-related deseases and complication or include all causes of death (such as accidents) - I assume the latter.

What surprised me is the realisation that only 1 in 174 infected people (or 5.8 per 1,000) die per year - that's half the mortality rate of the general population at large (11.3 per 1,000)!
A big part of the reason for this is of course that few HIV-positive people can be expected to be older than, say, 65 years - infections are still most prevalent among sexually active gay men, followed by heterosexually active folks, and then, I think, IV drug users. These demoscopics "favour" younger age brackets.

Still - the numbers belie the impression that AIDS is a great killer. Perhaps I am the last to have heard the news, but ... apparently, medication works really well, even if there is no cure yet!

(I searched for an open HIV thread before operning this. The last post in this subforum within a thread tagged "hiv" was more than 2 years ago! Not a big issue these days, eh?)

 

[Hungry81]

In the news yesterday here in Germany is a press release by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) about HIV statistics/estimates for 2014.
http://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Service/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2015/08_2015.html

The numbers are, quickly:

• 83,400 people in Germany are HIV-positive
• 13,200 of these do not know yet that they are positive
• 3,200 people were newly infected during 2014
• 480 HIV-positive people have died in 2014

As the second number makes apparent, these numbers are not based on registered cases but are estimates including the dark field.
They don't specify whether the 480 death cases were from AIDS-related deseases and complication or include all causes of death (such as accidents) - I assume the latter.

What surprised me is the realisation that only 1 in 174 infected people (or 5.8 per 1,000) die per year - that's half the mortality rate of the general population at large (11.3 per 1,000)!
A big part of the reason for this is of course that few HIV-positive people can be expected to be older than, say, 65 years - infections are still most prevalent among sexually active gay men, followed by heterosexually active folks, and then, I think, IV drug users. These demoscopics "favour" younger age brackets.

Still - the numbers belie the impression that AIDS is a great killer. Perhaps I am the last to have heard the news, but ... apparently, medication works really well, even if there is no cure yet!

(I searched for an open HIV thread before operning this. The last post in this subforum within a thread tagged "hiv" was more than 2 years ago! Not a big issue these days, eh?)

Yeah in Certain Countries (usually "first world") HIV is not as deadly as it is in others. Just like many other diseases. Doesn't mean it's not a problem. Even if you are lucky enough to live in a country where the disease is understood and proper treatment is available and affordable, it still has an impact on the health system.
Do some research on HIV and AIDS in Africa and developing countries then try start a thread saying its not a problem.

 

[casebro]

Also compare that to the death rate of other under 65s, usually veeerrrry low.

 

[Oystein]

Yeah in Certain Countries (usually "first world") HIV is not as deadly as it is in others. Just like many other diseases. Doesn't mean it's not a problem. Even if you are lucky enough to live in a country where the disease is understood and proper treatment is available and affordable, it still has an impact on the health system.
Do some research on HIV and AIDS in Africa and developing countries then try start a thread saying its not a problem.

I didn't say, and didn't mean to imply, that HIV is "not a problem". It obviously is in all those places where the health system doesn't provide most of people with preventive education, reliable diagnostics and funds for proper medication.

Hence my conclusion "apparently, medication works really well, even if there is no cure yet". As in "I didn't realize just how well proper medication nowadays prevents death from AIDS nowadays".

It also obviously is a problem for those afflicted with the virus, and their immediate social contacts (especially spouses and other love interests). But here, too, the lesson is that modern, 1st-world health care measures have much improved the situation.

An HIV diagnosis used to be a totally devastating blow, like certain death in the near future - statistics suggest that there are now worse things that could happen to you (cancer, diabetes...).

So there is, in principle, hope for the rest of the world.

Also compare that to the death rate of other under 65s, usually veeerrrry low.

I know - I think I clearly implied that in my OP, didn't I?
I don't know the distribution of HIV infections over age groups, and therefore can't compare mortality rates for those age groups. No doubt being HIV-positive increases mortality, but the comparison with the general population puts that into a perspective that we can relate to - it's not a terribly high rate at all - wouldn't you agree?

 

[casebro]

All the gays from my high school class of '71 died in the 80s.

But now a days, treatment is good enough to keep the HIV from killing you, until something else gets you. A friend has been + since 1990.

 

[jaydeehess]

All the gays from my high school class of '71 died in the 80s.

But now a days, treatment is good enough to keep the HIV from killing you, until something else gets you. A friend has been + since 1990.

Yes, similar to diabetes and kidney disease, HIV can be a treatable chronic condition now. In the first world.

 

[Giordano]

In addition to what has already been posted I would only add:

1. Those who don't know they are HIV+ probably haven't progressed so far as to show serious symptoms, thus they are unlikely to die of AIDS until later, after they learn that they are HIV+.

2. Treatment of AIDS in developed countries often produces a chronic, rather than acutely fatal disease. Many people (not all) can live a long time with AIDS under these circumstances, although it can be a series of health crisis and the treatment can have its own negative effects.

[edited]: Point 2 Nija'd.

 

[aleCcowaN]

I was taking a look to HIV/AIDS statistics regarding my country. There are about 110,000 cases in the country, a bit above a third of them, they don't know they're ill (78,000 people diagnosed; 52,000 people currently following treatment; 34,000 of those in treatment have an undetectable viral load) There are 6,200 new cases diagnosed every year; 70% of them were infected long time before the diagnosis; about 27% of the new cases are "too late" diagnosis. About 1,300 die here from AIDS every year. The figures have been pretty stable along this century. Treatment is top notch and completely free, but nobody is going to chase a patient if they don't come to get their refills and shots or they forget to take their medication because "they feel better" or "they never felt ill" (that's why in all America, Argentina is second after Dominican Republic in cases of drug-resistant tuberculosis).

The right to be ignorant is one of many guaranteed by our constitution. The rest is in the hands of Darwin.

 

[Oystein]

Thanks, Alec, for the perspective. Relative to population (Germany's is not quite double that of Argentina's) the situation there is somewhat worse, but almost in the same ballpark still. Mortality from AIDS is about factor 6 higher.

 

[aleCcowaN]

But the number of people here that "don't get it" is here also 6 times their German counterpart. The typical person here who is gonna die from AIDS infected when he was 18 and went to the hospital at 29 with multiple infections. Once the infections are cured he'll considered himself cured and won't do anything until the next episode of the same.

From a sociological point of view consider the local population to be 20% German, 50% Portuguese and 30% Ugandan. You got a range from those who sneeze covering the face with their elbow pits to those that have tuberculosis and will sneeze without covering anything, the farthest their spit reaches, the more relieved they feel.