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Money - leading indicator

RandFan said:
I have predicted a Kerry wind for nearly a year now. I think this is a good indication I was right.

Kerry fundraising far outstrips Bush in June

Edited to add: I actually predicted Bush would lose this coming election a year ago. Subtle difference.
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You may well be right, but didn't Bush stop (or curtail) personal fundraiser efforts 1-2 months ago because he had raised enough, and was concentrating on fundraising for either the party or other Republican candidates?

I seem to recall a news story indicating that they felt his war chest was large enough a while back and that he was drastically cutting back on his fundraising efforts (for his own campaign).

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Kerry still seems to be behind both in terms of total cash raised and in terms of cash in hand.

This report also presumably ignores "soft" money and the fact that the president has better access to, and control of th enews cycle.
 
Re: Re: Money - leading indicator

NoZed Avenger said:
You may well be right, but didn't Bush stop (or curtail) personal fundraiser efforts 1-2 months ago because he had raised enough, and was concentrating on fundraising for either the party or other Republican candidates?

I seem to recall a news story indicating that they felt his war chest was large enough a while back and that he was drastically cutting back on his fundraising efforts (for his own campaign).

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I really didn't know this. I had assumed that "the money" was simply on Kerry. Thanks.
 
Re: Re: Money - leading indicator

NoZed Avenger said:
You may well be right, but didn't Bush stop (or curtail) personal fundraiser efforts 1-2 months ago because he had raised enough, and was concentrating on fundraising for either the party or other Republican candidates?

I seem to recall a news story indicating that they felt his war chest was large enough a while back and that he was drastically cutting back on his fundraising efforts (for his own campaign).

N/A
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I think that is partially true but not totally. According to drudge, the Bush campaign has roughly 65 million cash on hand (roughly twice Kerry) so your thoughts ring true. But 65 million + the current meger (!) monthly gains is not going to get him through November unless they have a very black, very large ace up their sleeve.

That said, I respect Randfans opinion but I don't think this [fundraising success] is a leading indicator. Fundraising is a direct result of dedicating resources to the fundraising initiative. Resources dedicated to this are resources removed from other ventures. There may be other negative effects as well.

I do think it is an indicator, BTW, just not a leading one.
 
Re: Re: Re: Money - leading indicator

RandFan said:
I really didn't know this. I had assumed that "the money" was simply on Kerry. Thanks.
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I did not find the original article, but here is one that alludes to it:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/shared/news/politics/stories/07/21money.html

"Bush wrapped up his heavy lifting at fund-raising events in the spring." (because he is accepting federal money post-convention, and had enough to last hjim until then, regardless)

The article also gives a wrap-up of the current funding for both.

Even so, Bush continues to lead in total funds, with $226 million raised through June. Kerry's campaign has raised $185 million.

Combined, the two candidates have collected $411 million, a figure that does not include money raised by independent and party organizations that are spending big bucks during this cycle.
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[sarcasm]

Thank goodness the McCain-Fiengold campaign finance reforms have gotten the money out of politics.

[/sarcasm]

I have given up on getting anyone interested in or angry about the limits on core political speech from McCain-Fiengold or its complete failure, so just pretend I threw in a rant here. Scatter a few references to the First Amendment in your head as part of it.

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Re: Re: Re: Re: Money - leading indicator

NoZed Avenger said:
I have given up on getting anyone interested in or angry about the limits on core political speech from McCain-Fiengold or its complete failure...
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The second clause explains the first.
 
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Money - leading indicator

Rob Lister said:
The second clause explains the first.
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No, it should make the first even more appalling.

The bill has failed to "get money (corruption) out of politics -- just look at the money raised this year by the candidates, notto mention all of the organizations created to evade the new spending limits -- but still infringes on core, political speech in the process.

Bad enough to stomp on political speech and actually accomplish something -- but to do it in support of a failed effort? That should be even worse.

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