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Milgrom and Homeopathy

Badly Shaved Monkey

Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
Joined
Feb 5, 2004
Messages
5,363
This link;

http://www.homeopathic.com/articles/media/2020_milgrom_to_turnbull.php

reveals an interesting whinge from Lionel Milgrom about the BBC Horizon protocol that debunked the claims made for Madeleine Ennis' basophils-histamine experiment.

I won't rehash all the history now, the interesting point is what the link reveals about Milgrom's shaky understanding of chemistry and lab practice, while at the same time he is keen to rely on his own authority as a lab chemist.

In essence, he claims that inaccuracy in measuring the original stock solution from which a homeopathic dilution was then created invalidates the potencies thus created.

This is bizarre and plainly wrong. He appears to have no inkling of the nature of the propagation of errors in serial dilutions. The error made in making the initial stock solution pales into insignificance compared with the errors created by the multiple repeated dilutions down to homeopathic dilutions.

"Let us assume, that having acquired this histamine solution of for all intents and purposes, highly inaccurate concentration, the further dilutions and succussions were carried out correctly (certainly, from what John and I saw, this would seem to be a reasonable assumption). This now means that the same inaccuracies have been transferred to the dilutions. Thus, a 15c dilution actually isn't. John runs a highly respected homeopathic pharmacy and I am absolutely certain that such inaccuracies in potency would never pass muster in his establishment"

His correspondent, Wayne Turnbull, replied;

"Even if there is an error of 20% in the initial 1C dilution, the critical part of the serial dilution process is the accuracy and precision of that repeated dilution"

We have commented previously at JREF that the nature of homeopathic dilutions renders the labelling of potencies as 18C or 200C as highly misleading. This is true even if they were done under analytical lab conditions, but we also know that many dilutions are doe simply by dumping the contents and adding more solvent to the empty but wet vial.

In any case even if "concentrations" are not quite they are supposed to be, it hardly matters for the point of principle whether an 18C dilution is out by 10%, 100% or even 100-fold.

It's almost sad that this link is to Dana Ullman's site and the exchange between Milgrom and Turnbull is presented as victory to Milgrom, instead of an embarrassment.

We've previously heard dark mutterings about how the Horizon programme's recreation of Ennis' experiments was flawed, but if this the extent of their concerns I'm not really impressed! Methinks they doth complain too much.
 
In any case even if "concentrations" are not quite they are supposed to be, it hardly matters for the point of principle whether an 18C dilution is out by 10%, 100% or even 100-fold.
Or simply, 100 times nothing is nothing.
 
Badly Shaved Monkey said:
In essence, he claims that inaccuracy in measuring the original stock solution from which a homeopathic dilution was then created invalidates the potencies thus created.
This is something I was thinking about the other day, when discussing the amounts of actual remedy present in homeopathic preparations. What concentrations of "active" substance are used in mother tinctures for preparation of homeopathic remedies? Do homeopaths, in general, consider the exact strength of the mother tincture to be important?
 
Re: Re: Milgrom and Homeopathy

Mojo said:
This is something I was thinking about the other day, when discussing the amounts of actual remedy present in homeopathic preparations. What concentrations of "active" substance are used in mother tinctures for preparation of homeopathic remedies? Do homeopaths, in general, consider the exact strength of the mother tincture to be important?

Well, exactly. They throw their arguments together with such ad hoc abandon they end up using diametrically opposing logic on different occasions and hope no one makes the connection. Is it dishonesty or stupidity that means they do not make those connections themselves?

They twist and turn like such twisty turny things they could use a paperclip as a ruler.
 
Re: Re: Re: Milgrom and Homeopathy

So there is no standard concentration to use as a starting point? I was thinking about this with regard to some remedies that Gayle took the other day, that were at 3x and 2x according to the labels. Is there really no way of telling from the info on the label how much of the remedy substance is actually present even at dilutions low enough for there to be some?
 
In my experience it's virtually impossible to pin them down on what the mother tincture ought to be. I have a link to the production of an LSD remedy which used 250mg of LSD dissolved in I forget how much water as the mother tincture, but that's the only reference with actual amounts I've seen. Most of the herbal stuff has no data about how much mashed plant they take in the first place, and then of course there's the one about the four angry bees.... I'd say that where more than one mother tincture exists for the same remedy there's no chance at all that they'll be comparable.

I think dear Lionel was trying too hard to invalidate this simply as a replication of what Madeleine did. Certainly, if you want to reproduce someone else's finding then you need to follow their method exactly. But it's not as if Madeleine's finding existed in a vacuum! They were touting it as evidence for efficacy of homoeopathy in general. If it really is the case that she's found some very subtle effect that's highly dependent on the original concentration and disappears when the protocol isn't followed exactly, then that's interesting in academic terms, but it's of no use to homoeopathy because they claim to see activity there every time no matter how slipshod the preparation. Indeed, the concentration of the mother tincture is simply irrelevant to homoeopathic theory and practice, to the point where we were unable to find any information on it when we were trying to work out whether or not a 6X preparation could possibly be toxic.

Now Madeleine herself has a completely different tale about why the Horizon experiment was invalid. Which for some reason she has chosen to share only with homoeopathic groups (though she isn't a homoeopath and professes to have no real interest in homoeopathy) rather than with, for example, the BBC. It's something to do with an additive that she says was introduced into the protocol, which shouldn't have been there. Which she said would have killed the basophils, end of argument. Ammonium nitrate, I think. The email in which she makes this claim is on a homoeopathy site somewhere.

You'd think they might at least get their stories straight.

Rolfe.
 
Rolfe said:
I think dear Lionel was trying too hard to invalidate this simply as a replication of what Madeleine did. Certainly, if you want to reproduce someone else's finding then you need to follow their method exactly. But it's not as if Madeleine's finding existed in a vacuum! They were touting it as evidence for efficacy of homoeopathy in general. If it really is the case that she's found some very subtle effect that's highly dependent on the original concentration and disappears when the protocol isn't followed exactly, then that's interesting in academic terms, but it's of no use to homoeopathy because they claim to see activity there every time no matter how slipshod the preparation.

I was thinking the same thing. The supposed point is to show that homeopathically dilute Histamine affected basophils. Any competently done trial should have the same result as any other competently run trial even if their details vary, provided that their basic hypothesis is valid. If their hypothesis is invalid then fairly performed trials will succeed or fail according to the p-values being employed and some successes will turn up at random and be outnumbered by failed attempts at replication- see the literature for exactly that pattern!
 
Is it generally the case that homeopaths now admit there are no molecules of the active substance, and that it's all done by water memory? If so, I suspect that the amount of active substance in the mother tincture, and the exact diluation level, are now entirely irrelevant.

~~ Paul
 
Paul C. Anagnostopoulos said:
Is it generally the case that homeopaths now admit there are no molecules of the active substance, and that it's all done by water memory? If so, I suspect that the amount of active substance in the mother tincture, and the exact diluation level, are now entirely irrelevant.
Look, Lionel thinks it's quantum, man!

They flit like butterflies to any wacky pseudoscientific explanation anyone comes up with, and no matter if they're believing three contradictory things before breakfast. So it doesn't matter which one you explode, they always have something else to fall back on.

Rolfe.
 
Rolfe said:
Look, Lionel thinks it's quantum, man!

They flit like butterflies to any wacky pseudoscientific explanation anyone comes up with, and no matter if they're believing three contradictory things before breakfast. So it doesn't matter which one you explode, they always have something else to fall back on.

Rolfe.
If you've done six impossible things this morning, why not round it off with breakfast at Milliway's? - the Restaurant at the End of the Universe!
 
Re: Re: Milgrom and Homeopathy

Mojo said:
This is something I was thinking about the other day, when discussing the amounts of actual remedy present in homeopathic preparations. What concentrations of "active" substance are used in mother tinctures for preparation of homeopathic remedies? Do homeopaths, in general, consider the exact strength of the mother tincture to be important?

The simple answer is no. The more complex answer depends as so often on the homeopath. Some don't give it a thought. Others are only happy useing remedies derived from the original mother tincture that the proving was done on.
 
Badly Shaved Monkey said:
This link;

http://www.homeopathic.com/articles/media/2020_milgrom_to_turnbull.php

reveals an interesting whinge from Lionel Milgrom about the BBC Horizon protocol ....
Ah, but does it? This page had highlighted something I've been quite intrigued about for some time. Just how many actual televised attempts have been made to replicate Madeleine's results?

We all know about the Horizon programme, first broadcast at the end of November 2002. And if you look at Randi's commentaries from earlier in 2002, you read about him going to England for the experiment, then later discussing it in more detail after the broadcast.

However, many Merikan posters talk about an ABC programme about homoeopathy, apparently strikingly similar to the Horizon one. Now at first I assumed that ABC had simply rebroadcast the BBC offering, because it seemed so similar. But there was so much talk about the ABC experiment, with no reference to any BBC involvement, that I began to wonder if ABC had actually done its own version. I think this series of emails confirms the latter view.

It's odd, in many ways, that the participants in the ABC effort all seem to be English, and certainly both Wayne Turnbull and Milgrom were involved in the BBC production too. Nevertheless the dates on the emails imply that the experiment referred to was done at the end of November or the beginning of December 2003, a full year after the BBC version was broadcast and I think more than 18 months after the actual BBC-sponsored experiment.

Wayne Turnbull says
After taking the decision to get involved in this project, and after a lot of discussion with Mark Golden at ABC News,....
Note no mention of the BBC. Then Lionel says
My understanding was that the ABC 'experiment' was going to be a reproduction of the BBC experiment, which was supposed to be an attempt to reproduce Ennis's work.
It seems as if ABC, rather than simply re-broadcasting the BBC effort, have tried to reproduce it, even to the point of using at least some of the English participants from the BBC study. And got the same result!

I wish we had a transcript of the ABC programme to read through. I assume it didn't have Randi in it, and wasn't an official shot at the Challenge - that isn't something he does every day! I think they had Dana Ullman in their version, remembering from one of the homoeopathy discussions. It would just be nice to know what was actually done and said, in particular which criticism applies to which protocol, as they seem to have been slightly different.

But isn't that interesting. Two separate tries to show that the Ennis experiment (or a reasonable facsimile thereof) does what she claims it does, on camera and open to scrutiny, and both failures.

Rolfe.
 
Re: Re: Re: Milgrom and Homeopathy

Badly Shaved Monkey said:
They twist and turn like such twisty turny things they could use a paperclip as a ruler.
I'm pretty sure Bach actually does that, if you follow his "arguments" in any detail.

Rolfe.
 
As for that ABC/BBC confusion, I've wondered that myself.

Horzon is often paired with Nova in the US and co-produces with WGBH, Boston, which is a PBS station, I think, so a link to ABC seems less likely. So, have both the ABC and the BBC done more or less the same thing?
 
Hey, guys, I'd be interested in discussing the fact of there being two separate null-result televised trials of the Ennis experiment. Does anyone know where it's possible to find out more detail about the ABC programme?

Rolfe.

(Oops, simultaneous post....)
 
Badly Shaved Monkey said:
So, have both the ABC and the BBC done more or less the same thing?
From what Lionel says in that email exchange you linked to, it would seem so.
My understanding was that the ABC 'experiment' was going to be a reproduction of the BBC experiment, which was supposed to be an attempt to reproduce Ennis's work.
I know that BBC News 24 often broadcasts ABC news in the middle of the night, and refers to them as a "sister station" or something like that, which was another reason I thought at first it was all the same thing. Seems like a repetition though.

Rolfe.
 
Badly Shaved Monkey said:
Ah, ha!

I put ABC + homeopathy + Turnbull into Google and you get;

http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s827502.htm

So it's Aus not US and it is the same programme, and probably slightly even more sad that the narrow-minds of the world of homeopathy haven't realised that the BBC and good old Horizon are the authors of this effort.
Now you are confusing the hell out of me.

That transcript is very similar to the Horizon transcript, but it's not identical. It looks like a re-edit of the same source material. The sections with Lionel and Our Mutual Friend (Mark) seem to be extended compared to what went out on Horizon.

But if there only was ever one actual experiment, then how come Lionel in that email refers to the ABC experiment as "a reproduction of the BBC experiment", and how can we explain the timing? The dates given for the emails are a full year after the Horizon programme was broadcast, and Lionel refers, on 5th December 2003, to being in Wayne Turnbull's lab "last week".

:confused:

Rolfe.
 
Rolfe said:
From what Lionel says in that email exchange you linked to, it would seem so.I know that BBC News 24 often broadcasts ABC news in the middle of the night, and refers to them as a "sister station" or something like that, which was another reason I thought at first it was all the same thing. Seems like a repetition though.

Rolfe.

Oh, yes, I'd forgotten that part of what Milgrom said. It does look like an independent test, and score another failure for homeopathy.
 

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