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McCain Campaign Leaving Michigan

Temporal Renegade

Last of the Time Lords
Temporal Renegade
Joined
May 26, 2003
Messages
1,890
Seems John McCain has seen the writing on the wall in Michigan, and has decided he couldn't win the state. To quote from the article:
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In a major concession, Republican John McCain has abandoned efforts to win Michigan, a Democratic-leaning battleground state the GOP presidential candidate had hoped to capture.

Republican officials with knowledge of the strategy said the GOP nominee is removing staff, curtailing advertising and canceling visits to the Midwestern state, which offers 17 electoral votes. Resources will be sent to Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida and other competitive states.
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For the full article, go here:
http://www.clickondetroit.com/news/17609146/detail.html
 
Bad,Bad,news for the GOP.
Michigan has been in play for the past few elections.
And since Michigan demos are very similiar to Ohio and Wisconsin, McCain has real reason to be worried.
I am interested in why the GOP officials made this public, even if it was "off the record".
I would quietly withdraw the funds and resources from Michigan, and try to keep it as quiet as possible. Admitting it in public just adds to the damage.
 
BTW, this should be moved to the forum we have espicially for the 2008 election.
 
dudalb said:
Bad,Bad,news for the GOP.
Michigan has been in play for the past few elections.
And since Michigan demos are very similiar to Ohio and Wisconsin, McCain has real reason to be worried.
I am interested in why the GOP officials made this public, even if it was "off the record".
I would quietly withdraw the funds and resources from Michigan, and try to keep it as quiet as possible. Admitting it in public just adds to the damage.
Click to expand...

True...
 
Michigan went D last few elections. Obama has been spending tons of that money there. I think that might have been the McCain plan. Push it far enough to see if its really in play, and if not, make Obama spend that huge warchest there.
 
Shoot, in this election, INDI-FRIGGIN-ANA is in play! It will probably lean McCain, but Obama is competing.

That's a very bad sign for McCain.
 

Thread moved.
Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Cleon
 
I think unless something major happens, McCain is finished. If he's pulling out of states like Michigan and Obama's advancing in states like Ohio, Nevada, Virginia, AND Florida, it spells doom for the GOP.

If things keep going like this, the election won't be a contest - it'll be a route.

And if (when) Obama does win by a huge margin, it'll be a nice change from the post-election wrangling and misery we all had to endure in 2000 and 2004. I still keep hearing some of my fellow Democrats whine about how both elections were "stolen" :rolleyes:

Of course, I cannot wait to hear how Fox News, Rush, Hannity, etc spin the election results on Nov. 5th. That'll be interesting to see.
 
I can understand why this might happen. The midwest is Obama's stomping ground. He's going to have a "home court advantage" in a close race. The problem with "pulling out" of that region is that it sends a message to Ohio as well. You don't want to push the first domino.
 
pgwenthold said:
Shoot, in this election, INDI-FRIGGIN-ANA is in play! It will probably lean McCain, but Obama is competing.

That's a very bad sign for McCain.
Click to expand...

Chicago kind of spills into northern Indiana, like it's hard to tell when you leave Chicago and enter Gary. I wouldn't be surprised that Obama is liked there.
 
Even Kerry won Michigan so it's not really a good indicator, but if McCain is giving up there, that's a bad omen for him this early in the race. There's still a month to run and it's not just about winning, it's about keeping your opponent spread thin.
 
MattusMaximus said:
I think unless something major happens, McCain is finished. If he's pulling out of states like Michigan and Obama's advancing in states like Ohio, Nevada, Virginia, AND Florida, it spells doom for the GOP.

If things keep going like this, the election won't be a contest - it'll be a route.

And if (when) Obama does win by a huge margin, it'll be a nice change from the post-election wrangling and misery we all had to endure in 2000 and 2004. I still keep hearing some of my fellow Democrats whine about how both elections were "stolen" :rolleyes:

Of course, I cannot wait to hear how Fox News, Rush, Hannity, etc spin the election results on Nov. 5th. That'll be interesting to see.
Click to expand...

A scenic one?:D
 
He's just outsourcing Michigan to the RNC, which has no spending limits (that I'm aware of).
 
McCain announces he's pulling out of MI. Makes sense its really bad there especially Detroit. Poor folks struggling, well what's he gonna do? He's a rich white guy with 7 houses (love the AZ ranch its sooo charming) like he's expected to give a **** about the folks in Detroit. He doesn't know HOW to give a **** about folks like that don't you know. He's going to be pulling out of a lot more before this thing is over.
 
I wonder if he still pulls out of Cindy?

It's really game over John. Take that rich heiress and find you a nice island in the south Pacific....
 
dudalb said:
Bad,Bad,news for the GOP.
Michigan has been in play for the past few elections.
And since Michigan demos are very similiar to Ohio and Wisconsin, McCain has real reason to be worried.
I am interested in why the GOP officials made this public, even if it was "off the record".
I would quietly withdraw the funds and resources from Michigan, and try to keep it as quiet as possible. Admitting it in public just adds to the damage.
Click to expand...

I completely agree. This could be domino affect if McCain can't turn it around. Milwaukeeans are very similar to Chicagoans even if they don't like to admit it. (Ever hear of FIBS? ;) ) Obama should do well in the urban areas of Wisconsin and possible the rural democratic leaning areas.
 
Here's a really good analysis about McCain's move out of Michigan from FiveThirtyEight.com...

McCain and Michigan

... To evaluate this strategy, we need to ask at least three distinct questions:

1) Was the McCain campaign spread too thin?
2) If so, was Michigan the right state to pull out of?
3) Are they redirecting those resources to the right states?
...
Click to expand...

1) Was the McCain campaign spread too thin?

The Obama campaign has essentially succeeded in what it wanted to do: forcing McCain to play a big map. While Obama has had to give up on a couple of states they had hoped to compete in originally -- North Dakota, Alaska, and maybe Montana -- they have been able to maintain tight races in states like North Carolina and Indiana, as well as all of the states that people expected to be swing states to begin with, like Virginia and Colorado, as well as the more traditional battlegrounds like Ohio and Florida. ...
Click to expand...

2. Was Michigan the right state to pull out of?

... I know that as of a couple of weeks ago, the Obama campaign had been more worried about Michigan than any of these other three states. Also, according to the New York Times, they had held three events in Michigan since Mid-September, as compared with two in Wisconsin, one in Pennsylvania, and none in Minnesota. So I suspect they'll be pretty relieved not to have to compete there.
Click to expand...

3) Are they redirecting those resources to the right states?

We have less information about where the McCain campaign is putting resources into than where they are pulling out of, but Jonathan Martin's article reels off a whole litany of states, including Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and the first second Congressional District of Maine (which our return on investment index thinks is a smart decision). All of these states are perfectly reasonable ones to put resources into, although Wisconsin, where Obama overperformed during the primaries, which has same-day registration, and which the Obama campaign can flood with volunteers from Illinois is on Election Day, is tenuous. ...

... But remember that Obama campaign now gets to pull its resources out of Michigan too, although there are some sunk costs (like rent paid on field offices) that it won't be able to recoup.
Click to expand...


ETA: According to the polling and prediction markets that I've seen (check out the Poll Vault thread for more details), McCain is having trouble holding onto Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida, AND possibly even North Carolina at this stage. If they cannot stem the bleeding, McCain's campaign will be finished within the next week or so.
 
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