Latest Challenger - IGOR

[sf108]

Does anyone know what he's talkin about?

From what I can decipher, he can predict the lottery and if in one week it was wrong, he'll keep doing it til it's right?

That means, if he gets the lotto right, he'll win that Jackpot PLUS the JREF 1 Million. Holy smokes! I wanna be this guy's translator!

gg.

 

[Ladewig]

I read it as he will predict a single number in the upcoming lottery.

 

[often mrunderstood]

I say he wants to know how frequently he must predict a single number of the lotto to be considered eligible.

How many times can he error on consecutive single number predicitons and still be significantly better than chance? Or more importantly, is this type of claim challenge worthy.

 

[Carn]

I say he wants to know how frequently he must predict a single number of the lotto to be considered eligible.

How many times can he error on consecutive single number predicitons and still be significantly better than chance? Or more importantly, is this type of claim challenge worthy.

The chance to predict one number correct with 6 numbers drawn from 49 is (1-(48/49*47/49*46/49*45/49*44/49*43/49)) = 0.3617, so rougly chance is 1/3.

He would have to agree for a given number of tries and then score better than 1/1000 for prelimenary and 1/1000000 for formal.

If he would feel save to be every time correct 7 tries would be enough for prelimenary(0.3617'(7)=0.0008) and 14 for formal test.

If he thinks he will sometimes be incorrect, the number of tries has to be increased and it can be calculated exactly.

Only problem i see with this is that its actually getting a 1/1000 chance to win 10000 dollars and the investment is the cost to send two letters to JREF. As long as those 2 letters cost less than 10 dollars one could win money on average by applying, if JREFs accepts that predicting lotto numbers is ok for prelim test.

Then one would have just somehow manage to get in 100 applications per year(would need lot of friends and relatives to do that as only once per year for single person) and he would make some profit from this.

Carn

 

[drkitten]

Only problem i see with this is that its actually getting a 1/1000 chance to win 10000 dollars and the investment is the cost to send two letters to JREF. As long as those 2 letters cost less than 10 dollars one could win money on average by applying, if JREFs accepts that predicting lotto numbers is ok for prelim test.

I don't believe the claimant wins anything from succeeding in the preliminary test except for bragging rights and the right to proceed to the final test. Am I misremembering?

 

[Rob Lister]

I don't believe the claimant wins anything from succeeding in the preliminary test except for bragging rights and the right to proceed to the final test. Am I misremembering?

If true, the bragging rights are a big win in themselves. He could then claim, very loudly, that JREF refuses to further test him, regardless of how willing JREF might or might not be. He could actually make a marketing mint of a preliminary win.

No harm to JREF, directly, but the dupes he dupes will be harmed.

Personally, I see little harm in a fool being parted with his money but many here, I know, disagree.

 

[Carn]

Sorry,
my memory confused me, at least german scepticals are offering a price, if you pass a prelimenary they carry through(do not know the price money, thought it was about 10000), other scptical organisations might do so as well, so depending on where or how a applicant will perform he might get money for prelim as well.

Carn

 

[CurtC]

The chance to predict one number correct with 6 numbers drawn from 49 is (1-(48/49*47/49*46/49*45/49*44/49*43/49)) = 0.3617, so rougly chance is 1/3.

That can't be right.

Lessee... it would be (1-(48/49*47/48*46/47*45/46*44/45*43/44*)), or 0.1224. That checks with my gut, because you can see from inspection that it has to be pretty close to 1/8.

So to achieve 1/1000 odds, you'd need four consecutive successes, and for 1/1000000 you'd need seven.

 

[Carn]

That can't be right.

Lessee... it would be (1-(48/49*47/48*46/47*45/46*44/45*43/44*)), or 0.1224. That checks with my gut, because you can see from inspection that it has to be pretty close to 1/8.

So to achieve 1/1000 odds, you'd need four consecutive successes, and for 1/1000000 you'd need seven.

You are right, i admit a stupid mistake.

But makes this claim even more easily testible, if IGOR knows what his failure chance roughly is.

Of course he could also claim, that he chooses 6 numbers(as normal) and 1 of them is always right.

That would give chances of (1-(43/49*42/48*41/47*40/46*39/45*38/44))=0.564(hope i'm correct this time),
then it would take at least 13 weeks for prelim.

And yet how do those organisations that offer price for prelim make sure, its not used as a cheap lottery?



Carn

 

[Brian]

I don't think a game that could be beat in the long run is paranormal.

 

[Khonshu]

If I could predict lottery numbers, why would I settle for a measly million when a $1 ticket could win me up to $300 Million?

Somehow, I don't think the Lotto corp. is scared.

 

[KRAMER]

correct!

I don't believe the claimant wins anything from succeeding in the preliminary test except for bragging rights and the right to proceed to the final test. Am I misremembering?

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This is correct. All one wins in passing the preliminary test is the right to proceed to the formal test.

Unless of course you count being the ONLY person to have ever passed preliminary testing. I'd say that'd be a helluva win.