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Job creation -- republicans vs. democrats

Victor Danilchenko

Renaissance Man
Joined
Jul 15, 2002
Messages
716
Long time, no see, folks. Just had to drop this one on you...

This chart says it all (job number fluctuations are in percentage per year)...

want_jobs_big.gif
 
Victor Danilchenko said:
Long time, no see, folks. Just had to drop this one on you...


Well, I don't know about the others but isn't Hoover's -9% a little misleading? Presumably the Great Depression was not really his fault or that of the republicans. Or was it?
 
Victor Danilchenko said:
Long time, no see, folks. Just had to drop this one on you...

This chart says it all (job number fluctuations are in percentage per year)...

Hey Vic! It has been a while. Do sit a spell.

That chart is very interesting, but I'd be also interested in seeing how the numbers compared in percent unemployment. As we all know, the number of people seeking or available for jobs flucuates too.
 
Nice to see you back again, Victor.
Interesting, but the question is always: how much influence does the President really have over the economy?
When they've actually pushed legislation to aggressively create jobs like FDR did, I suppose it is appropriate to give them credit. But for many other Presidents, it's not as clear.
 
Nasarius said:
Nice to see you back again, Victor.
Interesting, but the question is always: how much influence does the President really have over the economy?
When they've actually pushed legislation to aggressively create jobs like FDR did, I suppose it is appropriate to give them credit. But for many other Presidents, it's not as clear.
Well, the president does propose the budget, and does play a large role in setting the economic agenda. While it's true that you cannot place all responsibility for economic performance at the POTUS's feet, it's quite clear that a goodly chunk of responsibility does belong there.

Besides, the contrast is just too damn stark to be easily explainable by factors not related to the president's political affiliation.
 
Nasarius said:

Interesting, but the question is always: how much influence does the President really have over the economy?

Well, that's an easy question to answer.
If the economy prospers, the president takes credit.
If the economy is poor, he blames his predecessor.
 
Too bad you elitist, blue-blooded, east-coast liberals cannot devise a metric to rank and compare moral character. Oh, wait, I forgot, morality is all relative and murdering babies is perfectly fine. My apologies; carry on with the circle jerk.
 
Regnad Kcin said:
New George W. Bush campaign slogan:

Hey, He's Better Than Hoover!

Hehe, that's funny.

Good to see you Victor.

And I love seeing statistics that support what I want to believe, hehe.

When one considers all of the departments that fall under the Executive branch I think the President has quite a bit of control over the economy and job creation but of course there are always external factors beyond their control.

And sure Hoover got stuck with the depression but most historians agree that he did a pretty poor job in dealing with it.

And Cain, take another prozac.
 
Victor,

Good to see ya. I love the chart. It brings back memories of when I was a little boy and my father was laid off from his job. Inflation was through the roof and we were in a state of malaise. Life was so good during the Carter years. Oh to have those times back again.

It really is good to see you again. I was wondering what happened to you?
 
Re: Re: Job creation -- republicans vs. democrats

LucyR said:
Well, I don't know about the others but isn't Hoover's -9% a little misleading? Presumably the Great Depression was not really his fault or that of the republicans. Or was it?
I think you found part of the problem with the chart. The numbers are completly without context (see Carter). Still it is fun to do this type of comparison.
 
RandFan said:
Victor,

Good to see ya. I love the chart. It brings back memories of when I was a little boy and my father was laid off from his job.
Come on that's anecdotical. If you have evidence that the results are doctored, then please post it, but that one person gets fired proves nothing.

RandFan said:
Inflation was through the roof and we were in a state of malaise. Life was so good during the Carter years. Oh to have those times back again.
What exactly (or just approximately) is "through the roof", and is inflation generally lower with republican presidents? I’m open to other explanations than “democrats good, republicans bad”, but making some vague statements about the economy being bad under one democratic president, proves nothing. Edited to add: And it's not clear where he gets his data from, so the numbers themselves could be wrong.
 
Kerberos said:
Come on that's anecdotical. If you have evidence that the results are doctored, then please post it, but that one person gets fired proves nothing.
Yes, it is anecdotal but in truth it was typical of the times. When he was running for office Reagan asked simply "are you better off today than you were 4 years ago. The answer was a resounding no and Regean won by a landslide.

However, there is evidence that Carter did not ruin the economy and Reagan did not save it. If you have followed my posts regarding this subject you will know that I believe that politically a president must accept responsibility for the economy but in truth presidents often have very little to do with the economy.

My post was not meant to be "proof" of anything. Just a jab at the chart and my memories of the economy when Carter was president.

What exactly (or just approximately) is "through the roof"...
It wasn't just the inflation which was bad but also the economy was stagnant and thush a new term was coined "stagflation".

...and is inflation generally lower with republican presidents? I’m open to other explanations than “democrats good, republicans bad”, but making some vague statements about the economy being bad under one democratic president, proves nothing. Edited to add: And it's not clear where he gets his data from, so the numbers themselves could be wrong.
My statement was rhetorical. I don't trust the chart to tell the whole story anymore than I claim the economy under Carter was all his fault.
 
Victor Danilchenko said:
Well, the president does propose the budget, and does play a large role in setting the economic agenda. While it's true that you cannot place all responsibility for economic performance at the POTUS's feet, it's quite clear that a goodly chunk of responsibility does belong there.

Besides, the contrast is just too damn stark to be easily explainable by factors not related to the president's political affiliation.

Victor Danilchenko thinks the federal budget has a lot to do with the economy.

Maybe in a communist country thats might possibly by some stretch of the imagination be true.

In the real world, the federal government simply is not that involved nor should it be.

Please explain how the federal government is supposed to create jobs. Keep in mind that raising taxes in order to pay for these new jobs takes money out of the economy. Keep in mind that lowering taxes in order to increase the amount of money in the economy must come out of government programs which means fewer government jobs.

The only way the federal government can effectively create jobs is to borrow money from outside the economy.
 
RandFan

Good to see ya. I love the chart. It brings back memories of when I was a little boy and my father was laid off from his job. Inflation was through the roof and we were in a state of malaise. Life was so good during the Carter years. Oh to have those times back again.
malaise under carter was due to inflation -- trhe employment rates were quite good. While your anecdote is sad, it's not telling of the nature of the problems under Carter.

It really is good to see you again. I was wondering what happened to you?
I decided to spend my time in an environment somewhat less filled with trolls -- The Ponderers' Guild.

I think you found part of the problem with the chart. The numbers are completly without context (see Carter). Still it is fun to do this type of comparison.
The context is easy enough to figure out, but that doesn't help GOP side any. The fact that the best GOP president was worse than the worst Dem president, job-creation-wise, makes apologetics rather difficult.

Yes, it is anecdotal but in truth it was typical of the times. When he was running for office Reagan asked simply "are you better off today than you were 4 years ago. The answer was a resounding no
That was due to shrinking real wages and thus wobbly economy, not to low employment rates.

You might be interested in finding out that, despite Carter's oversight of stagflation, there is no significant correlation between party leadership and inflation rate.

However, there is evidence that Carter did not ruin the economy and Reagan did not save it. If you have followed my posts regarding this subject you will know that I believe that politically a president must accept responsibility for the economy but in truth presidents often have very little to do with the economy.
The fact that Reagan got his taxcut passed by the congress does not count as influence on economy, in your opinion?

I don't trust the chart to tell the whole story
No kidding! It only tells the story of employment rates, not inflation or real wage growth or stock market performance. Of course it doesn't tell the whole story -- it's not intended to -- but using this as an excuse to dismiss it is simply intellectually dishonest.
 
rockoon

Victor Danilchenko thinks the federal budget has a lot to do with the economy.

Maybe in a communist country thats might possibly by some stretch of the imagination be true.

In the real world, the federal government simply is not that involved nor should it be.
Whether it should or shouldn't be so involved, the fact remains that it is. Between the fed budget affecting the stock and especially bonds markets, the fed's control of the interest rates, and the power to affect economic activity by keynesian deficit spendings, the government in USA does indeed have a very significant amount of control over the economy.

Please explain how the federal government is supposed to create jobs.
In any number of ways. Lowering fed interest rates creates a burst of economic activity, leading to higher employment. Deficit spendings can jump-start the recessive economy by pumping jobs and money into it directly. Government dealings with the private sector causes government money to be moved into the jobs produced by the said private companies... and many, many more.

Keep in mind that raising taxes in order to pay for these new jobs takes money out of the economy.
No, it doesn't. It redistributes the money, by taking them from one sector and investing them into another -- which is often a good thing for the economy (just think of FDR and the New Deal). Your point is a simple flat-out falsehood.

Keep in mind that lowering taxes in order to increase the amount of money in the economy must come out of government programs which means fewer government jobs.
Supposedly tax reduction also places more money into the private sector, accelerating the spending cycle and thus creating more jobs. Not that this generally compensates for the deleterious effect of servicing an exploding public debt...

The only way the federal government can effectively create jobs is to borrow money from outside the economy.
Again, flat-out false. The money is usually borrowed from existing pools (like SS) and from the populace via bonds. In a recession, most investment strategies may be unpleasant -- when the stock market is tanking, most people lose money -- but the gov't bonds provide guaranteed return, stimulating people to invest, and thus bringing the $$ back into rapid circulation. This is what keynesianism is about WRT government economic oversight, after all.

Are you by any chance an adherent of austrian school of economics?
 
Lies, damn lies, and statistics. Nothing in that chart to put anything in context, or even where the numbers come from.

As for Roosevelt, I'd betthat 95% of his jobs were "created" simply by massively expanding the federal gov't. It is widely acknowledged by economists today that this merely prolonged the recovery. Not to mention that little thing called WWII, which guaranteed full employment if you could carry a rifle. The gov't cannot create wealth, only move it around.

Other flaws: Are these numbers for a single year, or for the presidents entire term? If they're for an entire term, it's obviously not correct to compare the results of a 1 term presidency w/ a 2 term presidency (or 4 terms in Roosevelt's case).

Also, compare the growth to the population between the ages of 16-65. This group (working aged adults) expanded greatly due to the baby boom, which would have pushed up the numbers from 1961 onward to some other point.

Also, compare the economic policies of the different parties between then and now, they're completely different. Makes the whoole chart irrelevant.
 

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