Italian General Election Thread

[NWO Sentryman]

Okay, looks like the Italian general election is coming up soon: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-italy-politics-idUKKBN18P14E

Unlike Wilders or Le Pen, Grillo has an actual chance of winning the election, especially since Renzi looks like a washed-up has been after that Referendum debacle.

 

[McHrozni]

Okay, looks like the Italian general election is coming up soon: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-italy-politics-idUKKBN18P14E

Unlike Wilders or Le Pen, Grillo has an actual chance of winning the election, especially since Renzi looks like a washed-up has been after that Referendum debacle.

Grillo is like Melenchon, not Wilders or Le Pen. They have a nonsensical economic plan full ideas that sound nice (telecommuting, zero cost politics, green economy) but are unable to produce any substance from them. Some of their ideas are downright dangerous (direct democracy). They're characterized as a big tent ideologically, implying their only goal is to attract the voters, not to actually do something useful with the mandate.

The five stars stand for five points of their program: public water, sustainable transport, sustainable development, right to Internet access, and environmentalism.

Public water and internet access are trivial issues in Italy, whereas sustainable transport, development and environmentalism are one point divided into three for good publicity. This shows just how few ideas they really have.

In other words, five star movement is a vote for stagnation and decay. Not as bad as Le Pen I suppose, but that's not a very impressive bar to set.

They have one good point in that they demand none of their politicians to be elected more than twice. They should be replacing their chieftain this year if they're honest. I won't be holding my breath. His vicechieftan is his son, implying they're organized more along the lines of Mafia than a political party. Devoid of substance they'll probably be dead and buried within a few years, but could do some damage in the meantime. That, at least, sets them wide apart of the likes of Le Pen in a good way.

McHrozni

 

[NWO Sentryman]

Grillo is like Melenchon, not Wilders or Le Pen. They have a nonsensical economic plan full ideas that sound nice (telecommuting, zero cost politics, green economy) but are unable to produce any substance from them. Some of their ideas are downright dangerous (direct democracy). They're characterized as a big tent ideologically, implying their only goal is to attract the voters, not to actually do something useful with the mandate.

In other words, five star movement is a vote for stagnation and decay. Not as bad as Le Pen I suppose, but that's not a very impressive bar to set.

McHrozni

And what has Renzi done other than bend the knee on harmful austerity policies? The Euro has been incredibly bad for Italy, and has condemned them to a Lost Decade.

Here's the choices (If this legislation goes through there will only be four parties in the CoD/Senate):

Matteo Renzi (PD) - Blairite who is washed-up after failing a constitutional referendum on reforming the Italian government. Does NOT have a very good track record.

Beppe Grillo (M5S) - Demagogue/Comedian. The BIG policy is a referendum on the Euro, which has been a net negative for Italy unlike Greece.

Silvio Berlusconi (FI) - The inspiration for Donald Trump. Nothing more needed.

Matteo Salvini (LN) - Far Right separatist.

 

[McHrozni]

And what has Renzi done other than bend the knee on harmful austerity policies?

Considering we've just finished savaging you on the issue of austerity in the UK election thread I would consider it polite if you could stop blaming austerity for everything for at least a month or so.

The Euro has been incredibly bad for Italy, and has condemned them to a Lost Decade.

The Euro is just like any other currency, inherently neither good nor bad. It's what the governments make do with it that makes it a boon or a bust for country. Italy used it poorly, but that's hardly the fault of Renzi, who only came to power in 2014. If you want someone to blame for the damage you blame on Euro look to those in power in 1999-2008 period (Berlusconi for the most part).

Of the four you mention, Renzi wins hands down, even with your spin.

McHrozni

 

[NWO Sentryman]

Considering we've just finished savaging you on the issue of austerity in the UK election thread I would consider it polite if you could stop blaming austerity for everything for at least a month or so.



The Euro is just like any other currency, inherently neither good nor bad. It's what the governments make do with it that makes it a boon or a bust for country. Italy used it poorly, but that's hardly the fault of Renzi, who only came to power in 2014. If you want someone to blame for the damage you blame on Euro look to those in power in 1999-2008 period (Berlusconi for the most part).

Of the four you mention, Renzi wins hands down, even with your spin.

McHrozni

If by "we" you mean "you stamping your feet and saying austerity works because you say so".

The Euro has been incredibly bad for Italy, even with Berlusconi following the SGP, and face it, Austerity is a failed policy. It was based off an excel error, yet Europe still insists on it. If austerity works, how come the Tories are on track to losing an election against a Tankie?

As for Italy, Renzi is only the best of a bad bunch, because "mere" austerity is preferable to ALL THE CORRUPTION, Let's break up Italy, and IDKWTFIAD.

 

[McHrozni]

If by "we" you mean "you stamping your feet and saying austerity works because you say so".

No, by "we" I mean all the posters who demonstrated with evidence your criticism of austerity is based on economic illiteracy and bad data. Check the thread if you want. Your final post on the matter is here:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=11858981&postcount=1051

Note, I don't see how vote buying with fox hunting is supposed to prove austerity is bad. Maybe you could open a thread to explain the logic behind the claim? Thanks!

As for Italy, Renzi is only the best of a bad bunch, because "mere" austerity is preferable to ALL THE CORRUPTION, Let's break up Italy, and IDKWTFIAD

That's a rather simplistic approach. The problem with the Euro is that it's a monetary union without a fiscal union. This can be resolved in two ways:

1. Break it up, destroy the European project and let Europe be once more a continent of weak statelets, free to be abused by larger neighbors a la 8th century C.E.
2. Establish a fiscal union to fix the problem.

I realize point 2. is a tough sell politically, but that's only because people like you keep peddling the lie "Euro is the problem" (the actual problem is the lack of fiscal union to complement the monetary union) and think the problem can be solved by doing the reverse. That's similar to trying to undo the damage from a bad purchase by beating up the salesman who sold you the item.

McHrozni

 

[NWO Sentryman]

No, by "we" I mean all the posters who demonstrated with evidence your criticism of austerity is based on economic illiteracy and bad data. Check the thread if you want. Your final post on the matter is here:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=11858981&postcount=1051

Note, I don't see how vote buying with fox hunting is supposed to prove austerity is bad. Maybe you could open a thread to explain the logic behind the claim? Thanks!



That's a rather simplistic approach. The problem with the Euro is that it's a monetary union without a fiscal union. This can be resolved in two ways:

1. Break it up, destroy the European project and let Europe be once more a continent of weak statelets, free to be abused by larger neighbors a la 8th century C.E.
2. Establish a fiscal union to fix the problem.

I realize point 2. is a tough sell politically, but that's only because people like you keep peddling the lie "Euro is the problem" (the actual problem is the lack of fiscal union to complement the monetary union) and think the problem can be solved by doing the reverse. That's similar to trying to undo the damage from a bad purchase by beating up the salesman who sold you the item.

McHrozni

The Fox Hunting part was more of a dig at the Tories, who by your logic should have seen the most prosperous years ever in 2010-2017. Instead, we got growing inequality, poverty and unemployment. But hey, the bankers who attend cocktail parties looked at some numbers on spreadsheets so it's alright. Ever ask yourself why Corbyn looks more likely to take no. 10?

The problem with a fiscal union is that the German Constitutional court has explicitly ruled it out since 2011, so it means the Bundestag, and by extension Schauble, would have to have de facto control over the EU. That would be unacceptable to Southern Europe.

Neoliberalism: a problem where the solution is "MORE OF IT!"

And this is why Grillo is where he is in the polls. The EU has lost a LOT of trust in Southern Europe.

 

[McHrozni]

The Fox Hunting part was more of a dig at the Tories, who by your logic should have seen the most prosperous years ever in 2010-2017.

Nobody claims austerity is the way to prosperity. That's your construct. Austerity is sometimes necessary to avoid even more catastrophic damage done by years of unsustainable spending. If your logic and facts were accurate, Venezuela would be the richest country in the world by now.

The problem with a fiscal union is that the German Constitutional court has explicitly ruled it out since 2011, so it means the Bundestag, and by extension Schauble, would have to have de facto control over the EU.

How does German Constitutional court ruling out a fiscal union gives Schauble control over the EU? This seems like one of those "Austerity sucks because Tories want to bring back fox hunting!" 'arguments'.

And this is why Grillo is where he is in the polls. The EU has lost a LOT of trust in Southern Europe.

Mostly because of lies and constructs like the ones you spew out, coupled by an unhealthy dose of populism and demagogy.

McHrozni

 

[NWO Sentryman]

Venezuela is screwed due to being solely dependent on oil and horrible currency mismanagement. And as noted above by Stiglitz and Krugman, austerity makes things worse. You know what prevented the US from going Great Depression II Electric Boogaloo? NOT doing Austerity.

I said that due to the German constitutional court ruling, the Bundestag would have to have the final authority over any fiscal union. This means Schauble would be in command. For Southern Europe, this would be unacceptable.

And if the EU is such a beacon of civic virtue that never does anything wrong, why did they deliberately write unequal treaties for its Southern European members? Why is it such a hated institution? When technocratic approaches have failed miserably, you are going to get a rise of populism. It's like how people took the wrong lessons from Weimar (i.e. governments NEED legitimacy. Saying "the numbers tell you to sit down and shut up!" does not help)

 

[McHrozni]

Venezuela is screwed due to being solely dependent on oil and horrible currency mismanagement. And as noted above by Stiglitz and Krugman, austerity makes things worse. You know what prevented the US from going Great Depression II Electric Boogaloo? NOT doing Austerity.

Certainly not, because the Great Depression was not caused by a loss of faith in sovereign bonds. The crisis in Europe, particularly in Greece, was. How would you restore faith in sovereign bonds? By defaulting on them?

I said that due to the German constitutional court ruling, the Bundestag would have to have the final authority over any fiscal union. This means Schauble would be in command. For Southern Europe, this would be unacceptable.

Either that or German constitution would have to change to allow a fiscal union where Bundestag is not the sole final authority. Would that be acceptable to the Southern Europe?

And if the EU is such a beacon of civic virtue that never does anything wrong, why did they deliberately write unequal treaties for its Southern European members?

Evidence of unequal treaties for Southern members please.

Why is it such a hated institution?

Because unscrupulous politicians have used it as an excuse for their own incompetence for decades and because gullible people picked up on the trend lately and parrot the lies peddled by the vermin like Nigel Farage and others.

When technocratic approaches have failed miserably, you are going to get a rise of populism.

Populism fails miserably every time it is tried. Technocratic approaches are not perfect, but it is usually a good idea to trust the experts as opposed to the hair dryers in human form.

Note: I apologize to any hair dryers my comparison may have insulted. Most hair dryers are harmless appliances of intellect above and beyond an average hair dryer in human form in politics.

McHrozni

 

[NWO Sentryman]

1) Considering how their economies are still in rock bottom I doubt it.

2) It would be political suicide to propose such a change in Germany, hence the impasse.

3) Do I need to point to the Greek referendum rejecting austerity, only to be told "no you are getting more of it!" in what was essentially a capitulation?

4) Ah yes, the "Traitor is spreading lies about our great utopia!" narrative that has won over so many people. Maybe being forced into poverty so bankers could have bigger numbers on computer screens and more martinis at lunch time had something to do with it?

 

[McHrozni]

1) Considering how their economies are still in rock bottom I doubt it.

The question was how would YOU restore faith in sovereign bonds. Thus far your only proposal that I know of was to default on them. I'll be polite and ask you to reconsider and present another option, because this one seems rather self-defeating.

2) It would be political suicide to propose such a change in Germany, hence the impasse.

You can sell it in so many different ways no one would notice.

3) Do I need to point to the Greek referendum rejecting austerity, only to be told "no you are getting more of it!" in what was essentially a capitulation?

Greece was given a choice: accept even austerity or default. Greek government chose austerity, even though it campaigned on a referendum to reject it and won the referendum.

How is that the fault of the EU? What should EU do instead?

4) Ah yes, the "Traitor is spreading lies about our great utopia!" narrative that has won over so many people. Maybe being forced into poverty so bankers could have bigger numbers on computer screens and more martinis at lunch time had something to do with it?

Before we go on with this, please provide evidence the treaties with Southern European states are indeed unequal. Chose any of the three you wish and present which clauses make those treaties unequal, compare them with compatible clauses in treaties made by three other states and demonstrate the treaties fulfill the definition of an unequal treaty.

Or you know, admit to spreading lies.

Either is fine.

McHrozni

 

[NWO Sentryman]

The question was how would YOU restore faith in sovereign bonds. Thus far your only proposal that I know of was to default on them. I'll be polite and ask you to reconsider and present another option, because this one seems rather self-defeating.



You can sell it in so many different ways no one would notice.



Greece was given a choice: accept even austerity or default. Greek government chose austerity, even though it campaigned on a referendum to reject it and won the referendum.

How is that the fault of the EU? What should EU do instead?



Before we go on with this, please provide evidence the treaties with Southern European states are indeed unequal. Chose any of the three you wish and present which clauses make those treaties unequal, compare them with compatible clauses in treaties made by three other states and demonstrate the treaties fulfill the definition of an unequal treaty.

Or you know, admit to spreading lies.

Either is fine.

McHrozni

1) Full Debt Forgiveness at first instance and create new rules to prevent it happening again (with some teeth)

2) You think Merkel could survive pulling a Nick Clegg?

3) The greek government didn't choose austerity, it was forced upon it by the Troika, the same way an abusive spouse threatens to kill their wife if they leave them.

4) You know, not everyone is an educated technocrat who can speak legalese fluently.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/e...l/10/ireland-no-model-greece-troika-austerity

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/poli...ible-for-the-recovery-experts-claim-1.2942139

http://www.euroviews.eu/2014/2014/0...logy-of-austerity-sorrow-and-social-upheaval/

http://www.salon.com/2016/04/29/pon..._on_behalf_of_banks_says_ex_finance_minister/


Because the establishment are beacons of civic virtue who always have the public's best interests at hand, right?

 

[McHrozni]

1) Full Debt Forgiveness at first instance and create new rules to prevent it happening again (with some teeth)

So, what? Default, followed by an unequal treaty where the EU is in charge of their budget? Well, it might work. It runs contrary to the rest of your ideology however, on all points, including austerity. How do you make these two work, exactly?

2) You think Merkel could survive pulling a Nick Clegg?

Much easier than she could survive forgiving all Greek debt unilaterarily or how Greek government could survive forcing a foreign parliament to draw their budgets or EU could survive what would amount to an occupation of a member state by other members.

Heck, compared to those, it's a downright trivial, bureaucratic issue, akin to settling on whether a random regulation should be broken down into seven clauses or would eight clauses work better.

3) The greek government didn't choose austerity, it was forced upon it by the Troika

Really. Please provide evidence as to why Greece was unable to default. Something better than "the Greeks did not want it" if you please, EU is hardly to blame if Greeks prefer austerity to default.

4) You know, not everyone is an educated technocrat who can speak legalese fluently.

Certainly. That's why I expect you to find the clauses that make the said treaties unequal, explain why they're unequal and how do they compare with treaties of other members, or else find someone who already has done so and show his work.

Your answer, citing four newspaper articles containing "austerity sucks!" in different flavors (one of whom by that paragon of economic literacy and credibility, Yanis Varoufakis) are not evidence of Southern European states having unequal treaties with the EU. Please find clauses that are unequal and demonstrate the validity of your claim.

If you fail to do so in your next post I will cite it as evidence you're a liar from then on. Good luck in your quest!

McHrozni

 

[NWO Sentryman]

We're done here.

 

[dudalb]

We're done here.

Given your stubborn refusal to accept that government spending more then it takes in always has, if it lasts long enough, catastrophic consequences, we are indeed done here. You seem to think that a government cutting back on spending is some kind of unforgivable sin against humanity.
Anyway, your idea of total debt forgiveness for Greece is politically impossible;it would be suicide for any EU leader who proposed it.

 

[MCel58]

I think is interesting is that there seems to be a belief that the economic model for the US, UK and even Germany and France which are highly industrialised countries will work in less industrialised countries.
Italy is at best a country of two halves or even perhaps 3 thirds, with a highly industrialised tech rich North with large companies and multi nationals, a cultural middle with high levels of sectors such as Tourism and small and even micro tech businesses and an agricultural based south with large numbers of small companies.
The economic model for such countries cannot just be replicated from elsewhere. So it is not austerity per se that does not work but the one size fits all of economic modelling.

 

[dudalb]

Of course with Italy you have a notoriously unstable political system to add to the mix.
Most countries go through periods of political turmoil the thing about Italy is it never stops.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Given your stubborn refusal to accept that government spending more then it takes in always has, if it lasts long enough, catastrophic consequences, we are indeed done here. You seem to think that a government cutting back on spending is some kind of unforgivable sin against humanity.

The problem is when to cut back spending (or rather reduce deficit-to-GDP). The correct time is during the boom. Deliver core services and fund innovation. During the bust, use deflated wages of available labor pool to repair/expand public works so people have money to jumpstart the economy.

Politicians have it all wrong. They give wasteful tax credits away during the boom (bribing their constituents) and then 'belt tighten' during the bust (worsening economic contraction).

Sent from my SPH-L900 using Tapatalk

 

[McHrozni]

The problem is when to cut back spending (or rather reduce deficit-to-GDP). The correct time is during the boom. Deliver core services and fund innovation. During the bust, use deflated wages of available labor pool to repair/expand public works so people have money to jumpstart the economy.

Politicians have it all wrong. They give wasteful tax credits away during the boom (bribing their constituents) and then 'belt tighten' during the bust (worsening economic contraction).

Sent from my SPH-L900 using Tapatalk

Yes, correct. This is one reason why a fiscal union for the EU would be a good thing. A Brussels-based budget office would be less willing to bribe constituents and it would be able to pursue counter-cyclical spending to benefit the nations, rather than politicians in power.

This is why fiscal union is such a difficult undertaking. I hope though that the current leaders plus the ongoing crisis combined will result in the union being created.

McHrozni