• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Is This Conspiratorial Thinking?

Scott Sommers

Illuminator
Joined
Jul 27, 2009
Messages
3,866
I'm personally involved in a conflict. I see some of the people involved in this conflict as thinking conspiratorially and would like a second opinion on this. By 'thinking conspiratorially', I do not mean they have a full blow conspiracy in the sens that Ryan Mckay's Irreducible Delusion. I guess I mean almost like one step before then. Is this the kind of thinking that could quickly become a full-blown conspiracy?

Some background...as some of you know, I live in Taiwan. There are tens of thousands of non-Taiwanese who live here. Many, but not most, are English teachers. This is widely seen as a job for younger people and recently there has been a move by many English teachers into the opening of restaurants. Many businesses in Taiwan are technically illegal but continue to operate, sometimes for the working life of the owner(s).

The fight is over the opening of restaurants and night clubs in a large residential district. Some of these businesses and many of the newer ones are owned by foreign residents. As you will see if you read the whole text, I maintain that many foreign residents, who have no political rights, pit themselves against Taiwan citizens. This leads them to look for elaborate explanations for otherwise reasonable situations.

Some terminology:
Shida is a district in Taipei
KGB is a popular hamburger restaurant. It stands for Kiwi Gourmet Burgers
NTNU is the National Taiwan Normal University. The abbreviation pronounced in Mandarin Chinese is Shida. It is located in front of the Shida Night Market area.
Hou Lung-bin is the mayor of Taipei City. I think he is an idiot.
Roxy and Underworld were bars and nightclubs in the area
"five million a ping" refers to land prices. It is a lot of money, even by american standards.

The original post and comments can be found here
http://www.facebook.com/groups/taiwaneasians/
in a post by Anthony van Dyck. I have reproduced the entire text here in case some of you can't access the cite.

Anthony van Dyck
Please share. The Shidahood Association has successfully managed to kick out nearly all the restaurants surrounding Macho Tacos Shida. We've been lucky so far, cuz we're legal (passed all government inspections), but it's only a matter of time, unless public opinion stops them. Thanks!

This is a memo from the Shidahood Association stating their primary objectives. It was issued in November 2011, not long after the group formed, and it is supposed to be "for internal use only, not to be leaked to the outside."

The opening line declares the association's goal is "to use every sort of connection and pressure to compel the Taipei City Government to 'expel' every business, whether 'legal' or 'illegal'. The first step of the procedure will be to expel the '300 businesses' that do not comply with city zoning requirements. Once taking care of the 300 businesses has begun, then immediately begin to expel the '200 businesses' even if they are legal. "

The document then goes on to discuss the various methods for expelling legal and illegal businesses. So far around 100 businesses have been "expelled" and dozens more are plagued by inspections and fines.

shidahood_memo
www.flickr.com
Like · · Unfollow post · Share · 20 July at 16:25
5 people like this.
Jonathan Burke Who are these people, and why are they doing this?
20 July at 16:31 · Like
Anthony van Dyck I think the neighborhood association is a front for developers. By kicking the businesses out, they force a drop in rents and real estate value plummets. They buy up the land at a fraction of what it's really worth.
20 July at 16:34 · Like · 5
Jonathan Burke Ah, the usual Taiwan story.
20 July at 16:46 · Like · 1
Robert Kelly I doubt that. The land and rent will be just as valuable. Even more so as a residential area and not a grubby night market. It's only the ground floor landowners who would have been getting any rent from businesses. That leaves 90% of landowners unaffected. I think this is more about gentrification. Lots of people don't want night markets in their areas. On my street landlowners have repeatedly rejected a market.
20 July at 16:49 · Like · 3

Scott Sommers They are legal household owners and residents in the Shida Night Market area. Illegal businesses that have opened in this area have resulted in traffic, noise and safety problems for people and families living there legally. This is not all of the Shida Night Market. It appears to be the area behind the Main Campus which until very recently was only residential.
20 July at 16:59 · Edited · Like
Anthony van Dyck Why do they want to kick out the legal businesses then?
20 July at 17:00 · Like

Scott Sommers I am a student at NTNU and regularly eat in the SMA area. Until recently, there was almost no business in this area. The only businesses you could find there were those run by local residents. It was not a business area, meaning it was very quite and the only traffic there was local residents.

Now, there is a huge amount of traffic. During the daytime, you can't use many of the roads because they are full of students and others patronizing the mostly restaurants in the area. Some of laneways have become virtually unsaleable and the commercialization of the area is spreading.

I don't know if this is the real reason. This was covered extensively by local media and I watched some of it on TV. There may be other reasons. Certainly if I lived in the area, I would not be happy with what's happening.
20 July at 17:08 · Like

Scott Sommers typo -- "unsalable" should be "un-useable"
20 July at 17:12 · Like
Sean Su Scott, what do you mean by "until recently, there was almost no business in the area"? For the last 5+ years Longquan street has always been full of traffic and there was always plenty of business in the area. Plus the only street the Shidahood association have managed to kick was the least problematic one at Pucheng street.
20 July at 17:14 · Like

Scott Sommers I'm trying not to take sides here, but it has been my experience that foreign residents of Taiwan often pit themselves against the interests of ROC citizens, and assume that passport holders must be backed by powerful commercial or crime organizations.

Pucheng Street is on the other side of Shida Road from Longquan Road. You can see it from this map
http://machotacos.com/location2.html
There has historically been a market in Longquan RoadEven in the 3 years that I've been at NTNU, the number of restaurants in the area has expanded significantly. It has also been expanding in the Longquan Road area. I can imagine they'll be going after them next.

But honestly, when I first heard about this neighborhood action, I wasn't surprised. The merchants in the area are not locals. The businesses are not aimed at local residents and service mostly students. Much of the area becomes un-useable during business hours and late into the evening. I wouldn't want to live there with this going on, and once I saw it expanding into neighboring streets, I was wondering about the future of the area.

Macho Tacos | Our Location
www.machotacos.com
20 July at 17:31 · Edited · Like · 1 ·
Robert Kelly Yes, many residents have been angry about the expansion of businesses in recent years and, knowing their fellow citizens, may simply have decided that a zero tolerance policy was the only way. I don't blame them.
20 July at 17:27 · Like
Jonathan Burke I can understand people wanting to evict illegal businesses, but evicting legal businesses through any means possible?
20 July at 17:34 · Like · 1
Mark McVicar Robert has it exactly right. In recent years a lot of illegal businesses have expanded into areas that were originally only residential. The 1st floor landlords get all of the benefit while those living upstairs get all of the downsides. That being said - I'm not in favor of pushing out legal businesses - and I support Macho if they've done everything by the book. All of this comes down really poor management and foresight by the city government - they have let things grow organically - and didn't step in to enforce the law until things had gotten out of hand. A lot of the real estate brokers are to blame as well by telling illegal tenants that the law wouldn't be enforced....I have a house there - so it affects me greatly. Either way - the law should be properly enforced so those operating a legal business can be safe in knowing that they can't be forced out ... while those who buy a house in a residential area can be safe in knowing that they won't have a flood of people, stores, garbage etc. suddenly appearing in their once quiet alley....
20 July at 17:39 · Like · 1

Scott Sommers Thank you Mark. I am also not sure what 'legal' means in this case. It may mean licensed but operating under numerous zoning or other violations.
20 July at 17:41 · Edited · Like
Mark McVicar Unfortunately this is the ridiculous grey area that leaves everyone in the lurch...I don't know the specifics but I was under the impression that pucheng road was wide enough to allow for restaurants...again i place blame on the lack of government action to make clear what is allowed where...
20 July at 17:53 via Mobile · Like
Geof Aberhart Yeah, ultimately the fault, such as it is, lies with the city government and the police for not enforcing the law properly or consistently. The legitimate complaints I've seen from the association have pretty much all been things the cops or the city government should have been able to get under control years ago. But the association itself is also a collective *******, and have made it very clear repeatedly that they are not in any way interested in an amicable resolution.
20 July at 19:31 · Edited · Like · 1
Geof Aberhart It's the combination of the lack of interest in any kind of communication or negotiation with the businesses, combined with their taking cracks at places like Underworld which have been there for years upon years that makes me wonder about the real motivation behind it all.
20 July at 19:28 · Like
Bruno Koegler I'd advice Taco invest in heavy arms and stay as last foo biz, and will then make good business, no competition anymore, think positive!
20 July at 19:35 · Like
Bruno Koegler I open a compuiter shop near them and we resist together, let's have fun :) Western mafia against TW mafia? :)
20 July at 19:35 · Like

Scott Sommers To me, this is all wrong. The idea that local people can set up businesses and services for each other without worrying about licenses and things is great. It starts becoming a problem when people who aren't you neighbors start selling stuff to people who aren't you or your neighbors and make a whole **i* of money doing it, while at the same time causing trouble for the legitimate residents of the area.

There have been clubs and foreign students and markets in Shida for ages. There has never been a problem until these businesses started disrupting life for people who live there.
20 July at 19:38 · Like
Geof Aberhart And can we try to not make this a Foreigners Versus Locals thing? There are plenty of locals - maybe not Shida residents, but Taiwanese - who think this is some ******** too, just like there are plenty of expats who are sympathetic to the residents' concerns. It's easy to go off the deep end - I know I myself have already made that mistake, and since been set straight.
20 July at 19:47 · Edited · Like

Scott Sommers When I use the term "local", I mean residents of the area. That would include Mark. My point is that as long as it's just residents buying and selling to each other, no one cares. When it's others, and they're making a long of money from it, there's no benefit coming into the neighborhood. You're asking for trouble. We have this problem in my neighborhood in Taipei County. I don't care about the congestion caused by people setting up stalls for food and clothing sales, though, as long as I it's not too bad and I know the people. If it were strangers selling to students, I'd have a different understanding for why I have trouble walking my daughter around the neighborhood. Wouldn't you?
20 July at 19:56 · Edited · Like
Matt Blackburn I'd like to address a few assumptions here as a business owner in the Shida area (KGB burgers). Scott you said " The merchants in the area are not locals. The businesses are not aimed at local residents and service mostly students. Much of the area becomes un-useable during business hours and late into the evening." I have to say that this simply isn't true, but it is a widely held assumption. First of all many of the merchants are local both in the sense that they are Taiwanese and in the sense that they live in Shida. Apart from us, Macho Taco, In to/Out of India and formerly Toasteria I can't think of a another foreign owned business in the Shida area. This is not and has never been a "local Taiwanese" vs "evil foreigner" type of issue. It affects local Taiwanese who have been living and working in the market for 20 years exactly the same way it affects Macho Taco who opened more recently.

Secondly, most businesses aren't specifically catering for students. While it is true students do tend to make up the bulk of the traffic during the day most business make by far the lion share of their earnings at night when you get the tourist traffic coming in to the night market. These people are a little older and have more disposable income. This is the main problem for business that are left after the purge. Student traffic isn't enough to sustain that many restaurants.

Also regarding the "legal/illegal" issue, many businesses have all of the necessary paperwork and licenses but are still offside on the zoning regulations. If the government is happy to issue you a business license and take the money you pay in taxes, you should be afforded some protection from them flip-flopping and closing you down the next day (as in the case of Toasteria), don't you think?

Last point in this wall of text. 1885 and Rabbit Rabbit were forced to close at the beginning of the week. I spoke to some people involved and they said that the issue was the installation of a smoke extraction system. Rabbit Rabbit were fully prepared to install the system, but needed cooperation from the neighbors to put the machine on an agreed upon location. The neighbors had no interest in the resolution of the smoke or pollution problem, refused to cooperate and now Rabbit Rabbit is closed. That entire lane now has purple banners hanging the whole length of the buildings saying essentially "businesses get out of my neighborhood". For those of us who feel that we have a legitimate right to run our businesses without interference this kind of memo is horrifying. Maybe it's a little harder for other people to get it, but I've poured countless hours and dollars into my little restaurant (and paid taxes) and sure as hell don't want to see it closed down because some ******* wants to "gentrify" the neighborhood. Taipei isn't a generic Asian city and I don't want to see it turned into a clone of Tokyo or Seoul.
20 July at 21:50 · Like · 3

Scott Sommers Matt, I am a patron of your business and have recommended it several times to friends. It's a pleasure to be able to tell you this.

But your restaurant is not what this is about, even if it's being caught in the crossfire. How long have you been there? It must be several years now. The businesses that are causing the trouble are the restaurants over on Pucheng Street. All or almost all of these are aimed at students; you can see them lined up endlessly at some of them. In fact, starting from lunchtime on and into the afternoon and sometimes evening, you would have to clear them all out of the street to get an ambulance or firetruck in there. I haven't been down there since the Indonesian restaurant opened at the end of the street, and that was last summer. But at that point, the restaurants were spilling off Pucheng Street into the lanes behind the school. You know all this. Just as you would know that at lunch there are lines of student in front of the Korean restaurant on Pucheng Street that make it hard even to walk past the place.

I would never defend Hou Lung-bin who is an idiot. I'm not surprised to see him handling a zoning issue like the moron he is. And if anyone here has relatives who voted for him, it's your fault, too.

But there is a problem over on Pucheng Street. It must be bad for the people who live there. This is a genuine grassroots thing, not organized by real estate lords or gangsters. It's got to get fixed.

But for my own interests, I hope you get through this thing, so I can bring my dad to KGB next year.
20 July at 22:16 · Edited · Like
Matt Blackburn We've been there for a little over 4 years now. And I wish what you were saying was accurate. The Shidahood isn't targeting Pucheng Street. I haven't read this memo that is making the rounds now, but around November last year around 60 restaurants on both sides of Shida Road all got notices. In February this year it escalated and we were looking at around 700 restaurants and vendors. It wasn't until the business owners started getting organised in opposition that the mayor backtracked. Originally they were gonna close down everything on any lane less than 6m wide. That includes the entire night market and every alley leading into it. Later the mayor decided that they were gonna close all businesses opened after November last year and previously existing restaurants could stay open provided that they passed inspections from the environmental protection agency. The EPA inspections are a result of resident complaints. If your neighbor says your place is smoky, the EPA will send someone to do a check, every time.

But, as is evidenced by the Underworld closure, Roxy Jr losing it's 24 hour license and de-listing Shida Night Market from government tourism websites, no one is really doing this because of zoning regulations. The goal is to shut the whole area down. Legal or not.
20 July at 22:18 · Like · 1
Matt Blackburn So existing businesses are being harrassed by the EPA because the residents want them out.
20 July at 22:19 · Like
Matt Blackburn Btw thanks for your patronage ;)
20 July at 22:21 · Unlike · 1
Mark McVicar I definitely agree this is not s local v. foreigner issue...nor is it a student issue. I live here and the daytimes are fine...its the crowds in the evening that are the issue. I think that had the market generally stayed in its traditional area, with the odd business on the outskirts, there would be no issue, but unfortunately the market just exploded over the past couple of years...and the local residents have hit a tipping point...sadly, some of them feel now that if they give in at all...then the market will just keep expanding. Very much a siege mentality. I understand their position but I totally feel for Matt as well..if you've got a license and have paid taxes...what gives the govt the right to turn around and just kick u out...unfortunately, when push comes to shove most if the business operators aren't district or even Taipei city residents. If the local politicians don't have to worry about losing your vote, they will most likely ultimately side who can, and that's the residents.
21 July at 00:00 via Mobile · Like
Sean Su I have to agree with Anthony here that there are hidden motives behind this. I've lived in the middle of Shida Nightmarket for 2 years and a third year within 10 minutes away. I've gotta say that due to the expanding businesses and the increased popularity of Shida Nightmarket that the property value has only increased dramatically. Rent for both businesses and housing both increased dramatically because the area was getting increasingly popular at a spiraling rate. By driving the businesses away, Shida's property value will drop as the first two floors of each building are no longer money-makers and the traffic is significantly decreased. The only people that truly gain from this are rich developers looking for cheaper property. By the way, the Shidahood association is indeed targeting Pucheng street as most of the businesses closed were on Lane 13 Pucheng street. 1885 and RabbitRabbit III are on Pucheng street as well.
21 July at 00:25 · Edited · Like
Etienne Maré This is not just a Shida thing, it is happening, has happened and will continue to happen all over the city. Taipei has to evolve and the vision of the majority of city planners is obviously based on Hong Kong/Singapore/Tokyo. This is irresistible. Markets that have already been closed/moved/pressured are Guang Hua, Shilin, Liao Ning, etc.

What is very difficult to take is HOW the shutdowns are occurring in Shida. I would say at least 99% of restaurants in the city do NOT comply with every bylaw. This is par for the course in Taiwan. Suddenly, businesses in Shida are being hit with infringements on these bylaws. Now it can be argued that this is right but if the government inspected your premises BEFORE issuing you a license, and all was good, the sudden turn around to where it is now a problem worthy of a fine/closure is bull. You can't enforce the law as you see fit from day to day on a whim. It has to be fair and constant.

If government had gone into Shida and issued every business a warning that they had 6/12/? months to vacate and relocate, the response would have been very different from local business owners. If they had further offered incentives to move to area x, they could have had a double positive effect by revitalizing an area of their choosing with new businesses.

Instead, the heavy handed and unfair thug like tactics used have created a lot of resentment from business owners. How many fines do you pay? They do an inspection, hit you for 100k and say everything is fine now. Every time when you pay and ask them is everything now ok, they say yes, you probably won't be shut down. Then they come back the next week and hit you for a different infringement, another 100k. How many do you pay before throwing in the towel?

Also of major importance to me as a restaurant owner, where is the next target? If I open a second branch, where do I do it? Shida has always been a choice location to look at. It was LEGAL to open a shop there. Good traffic, etc, etc. Then you see what is happening to people who have invested there. Makes me really shy away from other obvious places. What happens when they decide to clean up Gong Guan? Xhongshiao/Dunhua area? All "food" areas, but who is to sya they won't also be nailed after Shida?
21 July at 11:51 · Like · 1
Craig Scott The issue at play is Land Banking, lack of Capital Gains Tax on Real Estate Transactions, and next to no yearly Property Tax on Unimproved Properties, Forced appropriations at Government determined prices versus market price. The situation is simple Gambling is illegal is Taiwan, due to favorable Tax Laws for Real Estate and Stock Market Capital Gains, they are both affectively Gambling. People are buying and selling properties as fast as they change underware! Someone accumulates a position in a certain area, manipulates prices up, then exits. its not uncommon for an Individual Investor to have 20+ properties in a given area, with "nice" terms from his favorite bank including Interest only Loans. Any activity that undermines his/her Capital Gain (Tax Fee) in some cases, is then lobbied against by their favorite politician and calls are made to their fav. Government Official... this is the reality inTaiwan and why the Rich/Poor gap continues to widen... The above situation highlights the root causes. A Property market that is not transparent and a legal system that is poorly structured and managed to the advantage of a small minority.
21 July at 13:00 · Like
Craig Scott In my Building which is commercial/residential, the Commercial Owners decided that they no longer should pay Strata Fee's, and simple refused to contribute to the maintainance of the building...Even though it is clearly illegal, the Courts are just sitting on the issue for reasons which are opaque...
21 July at 13:03 · Like
Elroy Tay ‎Sean Su, RabbitRabbit and 1885 are already permanently closed as of last week. They are currently focusing on kicking out Mary Jane's Pizza. It's pretty unbelievable how much power/influence Shidahood wields.
21 July at 18:23 · Like
Geof Aberhart I /wish/ it were unbelievable. Unfortunately it's all too believable.
21 July at 23:59 · Like
Matt Blackburn Apparently they're meeting with the city council every two weeks.
22 July at 01:06 via Mobile · Like
Warren Hamilton http://sale.591.com.tw/sale-detail-408902.html

台北買屋,大安買房子,店面出售,19坪,4600萬元 -591售屋網
sale.591.com.tw
‎591售屋網,台北大安售屋資訊:出售店面,優質1F新店面,屋況佳,店面新,請與屋主譚太太聯絡02-2393-8659,沒手機,請電話留言,謝謝!
22 July at 01:43 · Like
Warren Hamilton http://sale.591.com.tw/sale-detail-453185.html

台北買屋,大安買房子,店面出售,28.26坪,14800萬元 -591售屋網
sale.591.com.tw
‎591售屋網,台北大安售屋資訊:出售店面,師大黑土雙店,師大商圈中心店面人潮多到爆商業區投報優勢獲利增值看的見面寬且深雙店面置產首選
22 July at 01:45 · Like
Warren Hamilton At over five million a ping, it's not hard to see what's going on here. Time's up. They want to sell. Everyone clear out. Job done. Thanks for playing.
22 July at 01:49 · Like
Craig Scott I agree with Warren, unfortunately it's game over, thanks for playing. The Political forces at play and money involved leave no room for small players. Sad, unfair, and improper but neither the less reality!
Tuesday at 11:20 via Mobile · Like
Craig Scott As I say to my kids from time to time "Life is not fair"
Tuesday at 11:21 via Mobile · Like
Matt Blackburn I don't think we're quite at the apathetic resignation stage yet.
Tuesday at 16:16 via Mobile · Edited · Like
Matt Bronsil Sounds like Taichung.
Tuesday at 16:04 via Mobile · Like
Alonzo Temujin Lively ‎@Matt- My thoughts exactly.
 
Last edited:
It is kind of a wall of test. Sorry about that. I didn't realize it would look like that until I posted it.

The point I am wondering about is the presence of conspiratorial thinking as an explanation for this problem. Claims are made of dark agents with self-serving agendas while no evidence is given for this. Is this a suggestion of a conspiracy? Or is it something else?

Quick summary...place is Taiwan. Many foreigners live there but have no political rights. The only power anyone yields is cash. Some foreign workers and residents open restaurants in the Shida Night Market area. Over the years, this becomes a problem. Residents this is creating traffic problems and many of the restaurants serve liquor. In addition, there is a 24-hour pub and at least 1 night club. The local residents band together and try to run them out. This is largely successful and even legally opened businesses are being forced out.

Various explanations are given for the 'real' reason. from the top
Anthony states, "I think the neighborhood association is a front for developers. By kicking the businesses out, they force a drop in rents and real estate value plummets. They buy up the land at a fraction of what it's really worth." but gives no evidence. This point is raised several times.

Scott Sommers, Robert Kelly & Mark Mcvicar claim the problem is real and any reasonable person living there would not want this happening in the neighborhood.

Matt Blackburn is a businessman in the area and feels under attack. He gives no reason but denies there is a problem.

Sean Su and a host of others make dark claims. Many of their claims are one liners agreeing with other unsupported opinions.
 
Last edited:
So essentially the belief is that the local residents are guided by some "hidden hand" of local government to run out the businesses so that it can buy up the land and then sell it on?
What do the residents get out of it, apart from a bit of temporary peace and quiet?


Er...yes its conspiratorial thinking.
 
Or that some money-based agency is really behind what appears to be ordinary people trying to take back their neighborhood. As a home owner in Taiwan (although not in Shida), I empathize with the home owners in this area. There's another discussion over here that cites the value of the real estate as the 'real' reason.
http://www.forumosa.com/taiwan/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=107321
 
I saw a movie about this exact situation.

What happened eventually was that one of the dishwashers in one of the restaurants was pushed too far. He rebelled and fought many thugs until justice was restored. There was a lot of jumping between rooftops as well.
 
It sounds to me like at worst it's a much lower level of conspiratorial thinking than the grand over-arching conspiracy theory represents, and one that's very much more in touch with reality. In truth, things like this can happen for either the openly stated and genuine reason, or as a result of some hidden agenda with the openly stated reason being just an excuse, or even as some combination of the two. They may be wrong, but this is nowhere near outrageous enough for the "not even wrong" level of thinking that characterises the NWO-style fantasies.

A good way of looking at this is the Gravy Line level of analysis, as proposed by Ryan Mackey. In this case we have a starting score of 1.0, in that the theory is complete: a group of property developers is exploiting the neigbourhood association in order to create a large amount of vacant property in a high-value area. You'd be better placed than I to assess adjustments in terms of the details of events and possible explanations. What you'll end up with is a determination of plausibility, rather than of truth, but that's good enough for this purpose; what you want to find out is whether this theory is reasonable to consider, or simply barking mad. If it comes out reasonable, then what you're looking at is probably not simple conspiracist jumping-at-shadows thinking, but a genuine concern based on some real experiences and reasonable perceptions.

So I suggest you look at the details of the theory, run it through a Gravy Line analysis, and take it from there.

Dave
 
I saw a movie about this exact situation.

What happened eventually was that one of the dishwashers in one of the restaurants was pushed too far. He rebelled and fought many thugs until justice was restored. There was a lot of jumping between rooftops as well.

I heard it was tortillas.

 
It sounds to me like at worst it's a much lower level of conspiratorial thinking than the grand over-arching conspiracy theory represents, and one that's very much more in touch with reality. In truth, things like this can happen for either the openly stated and genuine reason, or as a result of some hidden agenda with the openly stated reason being just an excuse, or even as some combination of the two. They may be wrong, but this is nowhere near outrageous enough for the "not even wrong" level of thinking that characterises the NWO-style fantasies.

A good way of looking at this is the Gravy Line level of analysis, as proposed by Ryan Mackey. In this case we have a starting score of 1.0, in that the theory is complete: a group of property developers is exploiting the neigbourhood association in order to create a large amount of vacant property in a high-value area. You'd be better placed than I to assess adjustments in terms of the details of events and possible explanations. What you'll end up with is a determination of plausibility, rather than of truth, but that's good enough for this purpose; what you want to find out is whether this theory is reasonable to consider, or simply barking mad. If it comes out reasonable, then what you're looking at is probably not simple conspiracist jumping-at-shadows thinking, but a genuine concern based on some real experiences and reasonable perceptions.

So I suggest you look at the details of the theory, run it through a Gravy Line analysis, and take it from there.

Dave



This is largely my take as well. Historically, there have been similar conspiracies to manipulate real estate markets*, so it's not outrageous to assume that something similar might be happening here. But it is a bit irrational to ignore the legitimate complaints that are known to exist.

I'd say the grey area is the focus on getting rid of all businesses, no matter what, that looks the most fishy. Although that might just be cultural.




*For instance:


The report itself proved to be just as flawed. For starters, AKRF failed to mention that Columbia owns 76 percent of the neighborhood and was thus directly responsible for the overwhelming majority of blight that the report alleged, ranging from overflowing basement trash heaps to major roof and skylight leaks. (Columbia has been performing maintenance on several buildings it plans to preserve for their historical significance.) As numerous tenants have now reported, the university refused to perform basic and necessary repairs, which both pushed tenants out and manufactured the ugly conditions that later advanced Columbia's long-term interests. As Sprayregen wrote in an op-ed for The Wall Street Journal, "Only a few years ago, this area was undergoing a resurgence. Virtually all property was occupied, many by long-standing family operations such as my own. Now most of those businesses are gone—forced out by the university."
 
It sounds to me like at worst it's a much lower level of conspiratorial thinking than the grand over-arching conspiracy theory represents, and one that's very much more in touch with reality. In truth, things like this can happen for either the openly stated and genuine reason, or as a result of some hidden agenda with the openly stated reason being just an excuse, or even as some combination of the two. They may be wrong, but this is nowhere near outrageous enough for the "not even wrong" level of thinking that characterises the NWO-style fantasies.

A good way of looking at this is the Gravy Line level of analysis, as proposed by Ryan Mackey. In this case we have a starting score of 1.0, in that the theory is complete: a group of property developers is exploiting the neigbourhood association in order to create a large amount of vacant property in a high-value area. You'd be better placed than I to assess adjustments in terms of the details of events and possible explanations. What you'll end up with is a determination of plausibility, rather than of truth, but that's good enough for this purpose; what you want to find out is whether this theory is reasonable to consider, or simply barking mad. If it comes out reasonable, then what you're looking at is probably not simple conspiracist jumping-at-shadows thinking, but a genuine concern based on some real experiences and reasonable perceptions.

So I suggest you look at the details of the theory, run it through a Gravy Line analysis, and take it from there.

Dave

This is my problem. I am sure I know what's going on, and it's not real estate developers colluding to make money. But every time there's a major issue here involving foreign residents - legal/criminal, business, major accident - you see suggestions that dark and organized local forces - the police, immigration officials, the courts, real estate developers - are acting with deliberation against the foreign residents who are involved.

I am a locally employed, married, homeowner. This is a quite unusual status here. It puts me more on par in terms of my personal interests with Taiwanese passport holders. In the Night Market comments, one of the other posters is also a home owner. He and I agree it is not collusion, and merely homeowners looking out for the interests of themselves and their families. Most of the other foreigners involved in the post are either young, single marginally employed or business owners. This includes my good friend Anthony who stated,
I think the neighborhood association is a front for developers. By kicking the businesses out, they force a drop in rents and real estate value plummets. They buy up the land at a fraction of what it's really worth.
While Anthony probably makes more money than I do, he is a business owner and rents. This is not an unusual situation for foreign businessmen.

So the thing is that underlying every discussion about foreign interests in Taiwan is this theme that local institutions and individuals are involved in secret activities opposing 'us' foreigners. It reminds me very much of how the John Birch Society talks about things - there is a conspiracy, the big problem is finding out who they are and how they are doing it. But then, for the last few years, every day, I'm on the JREF talking about conspiracies with your guys. Is this an example of proto-conspiracy theory? Or is this just something that doesn't matter?
 
Last edited:
Is this an example of proto-conspiracy theory? Or is this just something that doesn't matter?



It could be a "proto-conspiracy theory". If this were the only example of such reactions, it might just be honest differences of opinions, but you seem to suggest that such notions are common in Taiwan. I guess I'd have to ask, how often do such theories get advanced, and have they ever turned out to be true?

If people are playing the "collusion and conspiracy" card every time there's a neighborhood dispute, and those accusations never pan out, then it's probably CTish thinking. However, if there have been cases of such collusion in the past, it just might be justifiable paranoia.
 
It could be a "proto-conspiracy theory". If this were the only example of such reactions, it might just be honest differences of opinions, but you seem to suggest that such notions are common in Taiwan. I guess I'd have to ask, how often do such theories get advanced, and have they ever turned out to be true?

If people are playing the "collusion and conspiracy" card every time there's a neighborhood dispute, and those accusations never pan out, then it's probably CTish thinking. However, if there have been cases of such collusion in the past, it just might be justifiable paranoia.

The situation I'm trying to describe is quite complex. My concern is that this proto-CT appears in many places where foreign residents come into contact with the official institutions of the Taiwan state apparatus.

I'll give you an idea of what I mean. Back in 2010, a local foreign businessman, Zain Dean, was involved in a hit & run driving accident in which a local man was killed. the circumstances were very confusing. There's something like a hundred pages of discussion about the accident on this forum.

If you read through the entire thing, at different places there is the suggestion that Mr. Dean is being blamed because he is a foreigner and as such the case will disappear quickly if it can be blamed on him. No evidence is ever offered for this, other than it is an opinion we can all understand. In fact, he was convicted.

In this thread, a foreign English teacher is involved in a legal case over whether he did or did not touch a student inappropriately. Note that in 2007, this was the second part of the thread and it stretches into 2012. Accusations of collusion between different parties is constant, and once again, there is no evidence other than that's how we know the Taiwanese operate.

There are other examples, but it in the reading of these two that I became interested in this idea of using collusion and conspiracy to understand these problems.

One of the key factors that I see in all this is the relative powerlessness of the people involved. Foreign residents have no political rights and have to give their overseas passports to vote. Many are not married to citizens and even for those who are, banks, for example, can not lend money to them directly. The language barrier is formidable and even if your Mandarin is very good, many people speak other local languages. Mandarin is incredibly formal and the reading of formal documents, like court documents, etc is beyond even those with very advanced levels of language proficiency. So the reality of life here is that almost all foreign residents live on the periphery of legitimate society and can only yield economic power or authority through their occupation and institutions they are affiliated with.

The situation I'm describing is much like the conceptualization of big 'C' Conspiracy Theory described in culture studies by people like Claire Birchall and Mark Fenster where CT is seen as an expression of alienation and powerlessness in society.
Conspiracy theories proceed from an assumption that is undoubtedly correct, even banally so: we don’t all have equal access to power and capital. They then seek evidence of the extent to which the system by which those assets are distributed—the state and economy—is both hidden and corrupt, and they construct elaborate stories that explain the conspiracy’s secrecy and villainy.

In general I discard this kind of thinking, but looking around at the situation I live in, I have trouble shaking this feeling. These proto-conspiracy theories are everywhere; or at least everywhere where foreign residents contact with the official institutions of local life.
 
Last edited:

Back
Top Bottom