Now that we have some new information from four weeks ago when you first played chicken little, I mull over new developments and will answer you again:
Yes.
Whatever happens there will be similar but different. It is Kenya, not Rwanda, and it is coastal, not landlocked. It will return to Kenya, or become Kenya Prime, but it won't become Rwanda. Cookie cutters dont fit well.
Political and ethnic violence has killed 850 people in Kenya since Kibaki's disputed re-election on Dec. 27, a wave of instability that has shocked its neighbours and Western donors and battered its image as a stable trade and tourism hub.
"Kenyans are killing one another at an alarming rate and are putting the country in grave danger of civil war," said Jennifer Windsor, executive director of U.S.-based rights group Freedom House.
Gee, where is Oliver when you need him, crying out loud about American Fear Mongering? Oddly absent, eh?
Not sure how 805 people compares to a half a million or so, but then, in support of your panic, the unrest is relatively recent in comparable time scales. The potential remains for it all to go to crap. Note the significant international efforts, albeit slow, to try and stem the tide of decline. (That is what the bulk of your article covers: efforts at prevention.)
Whatever happens in Kenya, due to its size, is far more likely to be either benign in comparison, or, if all dice rolls come up badly, a mess that will dwarf Rwanda's intertribal war.
See again: Kenya is coastal, and thus more likely to be able to receive international support (should that arise as a mitigating factor) than a landlocked, low-to-no infrastructure nation like Rwanda.
However, Matteo, I will agree, if you will, to keep eyes and ears open, and to adjust my assessments as new events become known. New info often changes ones assessment.
Or hadn't you noticed?
DR
