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Hurricane Ivan and New Orleans

Bluegill

Graduate Poster
Bluegill
Joined
Oct 17, 2002
Messages
1,243
CNN Story
NOAA is currently forecasting a 21% chance that Ivan will come ashore at New Orleans. Man, I’d be out of there. Unfortunately, from the news accounts, up to 100,000 people have no means of evacuating and no place to evacuate to.

Yahoo story mentions difficulty of evacuation

That’s a very scary situation.

"Doomsday Scenario"

New Orleans is sinking.
And its main buffer from a hurricane, the protective Mississippi River delta, is quickly eroding away, leaving the historic city perilously close to disaster.
So vulnerable, in fact, that earlier this year the Federal Emergency Management Agency ranked the potential damage to New Orleans as among the three likeliest, most castastrophic disasters facing this country.
The other two? A massive earthquake in San Francisco, and, almost prophetically, a terrorist attack on New York City.
The New Orleans hurricane scenario may be the deadliest of all.
In the face of an approaching storm, scientists say, the city's less-than-adequate evacuation routes would strand 250,000 people or more, and probably kill one of 10 left behind as the city drowned under 20 feet of water. Thousands of refugees could land in Houston.
Economically, the toll would be shattering.
Southern Louisiana produces one-third of the country's seafood, one-fifth of its oil and one-quarter of its natural gas. The city's tourism, lifeblood of the French Quarter, would cease to exist. The Big Easy might never recover.
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Most “doomsday scenarios” never pan out, and the direst forecasts are, by their very nature, at the skinny edge of the bell curve. But still…shudder.

And check out Tropical Storm Jeanne, likely to become a hurricane in the next day or so. Looks frighteningly close to the East Coast…:(


Prediction chart for Jeanne from Intellicast.com
 
Bluegill said:

And check out Tropical Storm Jeanne, likely to become a hurricane in the next day or so. Looks frighteningly close to the East Coast…:(

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Dont worry. God created the Carolinas for a reason. TO protect the all imporatant Northeast from hurricanes!:p
 
The doomsday scenarios for NO are legitimate but only under certain circumstances. It would take a direct hit on the city or a hurricane passing nearby on our west side with the levees breaking at the same time to cause that kind of damage. The evacuation routes really aren't that inadequate given enough warning. People have been leaving for the last two days and the North bound routes are still clear.

But things are looking up now. Worry about Mobile, AL. though.
 
Phil said:
quote:
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. . . Thousands of refugees could land in Houston. . .
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They're here.
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At least they're not in Galveston:

panorama.gif
 
Last year I predicted this year a hurricane would cause severe damage to the South. I even predicted that the name would begin with a letter in the first half of the alphabet.

Can I have my million now?
 
Dogwood said:
The doomsday scenarios for NO are legitimate but only under certain circumstances. It would take a direct hit on the city or a hurricane passing nearby on our west side with the levees breaking at the same time to cause that kind of damage. The evacuation routes really aren't that inadequate given enough warning. People have been leaving for the last two days and the North bound routes are still clear.

But things are looking up now. Worry about Mobile, AL. though.
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According to news reports, not everyone has a car, and public transport is not capable of meeting the demand. Some people are just stuck there, if they like it or not.
 
I saw this movie where a guy bought a Shrimp Boat just before a hurricane arrived and he became rich.


Give it some thought...
 
a_unique_person said:
According to news reports, not everyone has a car, and public transport is not capable of meeting the demand. Some people are just stuck there, if they like it or not.
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Yes, I know. A sad truth that applies to most cities I would think.
 
Looks like another overhyped storm.

On the bright side, could Ivan have taken a less destructive path??? If you HAD to pick a sport for a hurricane to hit the states wouldnt you pick the Miss-Bama coast??
 
The press believes that nothing exceeds like excess, alright, but at the same time you just can't predict the outcome of hurricanes of this size. If you do gamble that it won't be that bad, and you lose, the lynch mob will be out for you in not time.
 
a_unique_person said:
According to news reports, not everyone has a car, and public transport is not capable of meeting the demand. Some people are just stuck there, if they like it or not.
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And yet footage shot in western Cuba before Ivan hit showed rows of school buses evacuating people from low-lying areas. How hard would it be to mobilize school buses in this country to evacuate people with no other means of transportation?
 
Tmy said:
Looks like another overhyped storm.

On the bright side, could Ivan have taken a less destructive path??? If you HAD to pick a sport for a hurricane to hit the states wouldnt you pick the Miss-Bama coast??
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No. I'd pick eastern Nevada. Practically nobody lives there, plus it's a stinking desert so it could use the water.









(...wait for it...)
 
Tmy said:
Looks like another overhyped storm. . .
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There's no such thing when it comes to hurricanes. You've obviously never been through one.
 
Phil said:
There's no such thing when it comes to hurricanes. You've obviously never been through one.
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Born n raised in Southern New Endland so Ive been through a few. Most canes' are not all that bad. People even have Hurricane parties. (if your stuck inside might as well have a keg!)

THen agian the houses up here arent made of paper mache' like in other parts of the country.
 
Tmy said:
Born n raised in Southern New Endland so Ive been through a few. Most canes' are not all that bad. People even have Hurricane parties. (if your stuck inside might as well have a keg!)

THen agian the houses up here arent made of paper mache' like in other parts of the country.
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Oh, wow. I gotta watch this thread. I've never seen a train wreck before.
 
Well its true. There are parts of the country that physically better able to handle a hurricane. And there are some places were the building codes lag behind or the topography cant handle the deluge as well.
 
Tmy said:
Born n raised in Southern New Endland so Ive been through a few. Most canes' are not all that bad. People even have Hurricane parties. (if your stuck inside might as well have a keg!)
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You're right. In New England most are not bad. In fact, I'd hardly consider most of them hurricanes at all. By the time a big storm reaches that far north, the cool water up there takes all the fight out of them. Those little tropical depressions you guys get up there are simply bothersome, and perhaps the media in New England overhypes them.

But I'd hardly call a storm that has killed over 60 people (Ivan) overhyped. Nor would I suggest that the Cat 3s and 4s that come into the Gulf of Mexico and hit the lower east coast regularly are ever overhyped.

When I was younger, I had the same mentality as you do about hurricanes. I thought it would be fun to ride one out. Then when I was 17, Alicia hit the Texas coast. It was only a Cat 3, and I'm nearly 50 miles inland.

I no longer think the way you do about these storms. They are more powerful than you think, and they are unpredictable. Not only in the direction they take, but how they behave when they hit land. You might think you can imagine every scenario, but you can't. And I won't even mention the tornadoes they occasionally spit out.

It is simply foolish to under estimate the power of nature.

Tmy said:
THen agian the houses up here arent made of paper mache' like in other parts of the country.
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This statement confirms that you've never been through a real hurricane. The material make up of your house is irrelavent in a big storm. Hurricanes are much stronger than the Big Bad Wolf.
 
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