How would Hillary be doing right now?

[Tricky]

Okay, let's take a the Wayback machine and make a few tweaks and now it is early October, but the Democratic race is between McCain and Hillary Clinton. How do you feel that Clinton would be doing against McCain? In your scenario, you can leave Palin as VP nominee, change the nominee, or ignore the VP picks.

After my favorite, Edwards dropped out, I shifted to Obama, but even at the time I admitted that Clinton had more experience and quite possibly would be a better president. My problem with Clinton is that I saw her as less electable, because she would roust the discontented radical right out of their complacency to go out and vote against the woman they have hated for so very long.

I still feel pretty much that way. I also feel she would be perceived worse in the debates because of her tendency to be shrill and her sometimes grotesque facial contortions. These are not good reasons to judge her, but they are often the reasons that Americans employ.

Obama, on the other hand, has appeard unruffled and presidential. In my mind, he is much farther ahead at this moment than Hillary would have been... if she had been ahead at all.

What do you think?

 

[chipmunk stew]

I think Hillary would be in a position similar to Obama's--slightly ahead. I think there would be some demographic horse trading, but you'd end up in essentially the same place. I think the undercurrents driving this election are stronger than the personalities, and given the current economic climate, the Clinton brand in that regard would overshadow her polarizing persona.

 

[Amapola]

I think she'd be doing equal to McCain, but not ahead. There are so many who still hate the woman (for no real good reason, when you ask them why).

And although I agree with you about the way Obama appears, there are a lot of people who think he is "snobby" because he is intelligent. I have no idea why it has become a bad thing to be intelligent but there are people out there who think that. I think Clinton would have had the same "issue".

 

[Gregoire]

With the state of the economy, this is the Democrat's election to lose, regardless about who is on the ticket. This may or may not be argued as unfair, but in politics perception is everything.

I switched to Obama after Biden left the race. I mainly supported Obama for being right about the war in Iraq (as was Al Gore). I disagree with some of what Obama has said about economic issues, but really, ending that war ultimately would be the best thing for our economy.

 

[a_unique_person]

The attack ads would be in hyperdrive by now if Hilary was running.

Obama is being very careful not to be too uppity, but they can't just use the standard attack ad method of going for the lowest common denominator, and say 'look, he's black', either. Kind of baffles them, I think. If it was Hillary, they wouldn't care what they were saying.

 

[not_so_new]

I think she'd be doing equal to McCain, but not ahead. There are so many who still hate the woman (for no real good reason, when you ask them why).

I don't agree 100% but I know what you are getting at.

Hillary is just as vulnerable to the same types of attacks about experience and is still a minority. She also has some back history that McCain would play up, stuff that is probably more damaging than Wright to Obama.

McCain pulls stronger with his base having Palin but with Hillary on the Democratic ticket McCain would not have picked Palin in the first place.

Palin got McCain his base but she is also dragging him down now with independents.

McCain would probably be sitting a little better with his campaign at this point and Hillary would probably be doing slightly better than Obama even with her negatives so in short, probably a wash, we would be just about where we are now.

And although I agree with you about the way Obama appears, there are a lot of people who think he is "snobby" because he is intelligent. I have no idea why it has become a bad thing to be intelligent but there are people out there who think that. I think Clinton would have had the same "issue".

I agree here.... when did intelligence become a liability? Crazy.

 

[gdnp]

I think Hillary would be in a position similar to Obama's--slightly ahead. I think there would be some demographic horse trading, but you'd end up in essentially the same place. I think the undercurrents driving this election are stronger than the personalities, and given the current economic climate, the Clinton brand in that regard would overshadow her polarizing persona.

I guess it comes down to what you consider "close". Reagan beat Carter by 10% and Mondale by 18%. Bush Sr. beat Dukakis by 7.8%. Clinton beat Bush by 5.6 % but only took 43% of the popular vote, and he beat Dole by 8.5% but still did not crack 50% in the popular vote. Bush Jr. lost the popular vote to Gore in 2000 and had a 2.4% advantage over Kerry in 2004.

So what is close? fivethirtyeight.com has Obama with a 4-5 point lead nationally but with a whopping 130 vote lead in the electoral college. I think a Clinton ticket, probably with Obama as VP, would have at least the same lead. Certainly not a blowout of Reagan-Mondale proportions, but enough that we would not be up as late this hypothetical election day as I was the last two waiting for a winner to be declared.

McCain's choice of running mate would obviously be an impact. I think that if Hillary were the Democratic nominee he would have been at least as likely to choose a woman. Writing off the white female vote would have been a disaster. Dubya won this demographic by 10 points in 2004.

 

[davefoc]

I have wondered about this also.

One important issue that the poll doesn't deal with is how Clinton got the nomination. If it had been some backroom deal that aced out Obama like she was trying to put together for herself I would have voted for slightly behind. There would have been a huge chunk of pissed off Obama supporters many of whom wouldn't have voted and some of whom would have voted for McCain.

There is a strange chunk of Hillary supporters doing about the same thing right now except that their numbers are small because at the end of the day Obama's win was legitimate and only a small but determined corps of Clinton supporters fail to recognize that.

But assuming Clinton won legitimately I think she'd be in about the same position Obama is in right now and that's how I voted.

 

[EGarrett]

I think a Hillary/Obama ticket would be much further ahead right now. I don't know about Hillary and someone else.

 

[Amapola]

I think a Hillary/Obama ticket would be much further ahead right now. I don't know about Hillary and someone else.

That's an interesting persepective! Why do you think that? I mean, about a Hillary/Obama ticket being further ahead. That's something I hadn't considered.

 

[Upchurch]

Would it be entirely cynical of me to think that if Hillary had won the primary, McCain would have chosen a black VP running mate?

 

[Pardalis]

If Clinton had debated Palin, she would have eaten her alive. Biden was much too soft on her, giving her little smiles all the time...

 

[Roadtoad]

Would it be entirely cynical of me to think that if Hillary had won the primary, McCain would have chosen a black VP running mate?

No, it wouldn't. In fact, he might have gone for Condi Rice.

 

[chipmunk stew]

No, it wouldn't. In fact, he might have gone for Condi Rice.

I was thinking Bobby Jindal. Not a black candidate, but I think the calculus for choosing him would be similar to the one he made for Palin. A fresh, young governor. In Palin's case, a woman--just like Clinton! In Jindal's case, a skinny brown guy--just like Obama! Same miscalculation.

 

[chipmunk stew]

I guess it comes down to what you consider "close". Reagan beat Carter by 10% and Mondale by 18%. Bush Sr. beat Dukakis by 7.8%. Clinton beat Bush by 5.6 % but only took 43% of the popular vote, and he beat Dole by 8.5% but still did not crack 50% in the popular vote. Bush Jr. lost the popular vote to Gore in 2000 and had a 2.4% advantage over Kerry in 2004.

I guess I'm just skittish after the last two elections. Maybe if Obama's RCP average goes above 50% or if the split goes above 10%, then I'll feel comfortable saying that Obama is "smashing" McCain. For now I'm more comfortable imagining that McCain might re-take the lead at any moment in the next month.

 

[rdaneel]

If Clinton had debated Palin, she would have eaten her alive. Biden was much too soft on her, giving her little smiles all the time...

That's what I've been thinking, If Obama had chosen Hillary as his running mate, the VP debate would definitely have had more blood on the walls.

 

[Bob Blaylock]

It seems that Americans have a short memory, with regard to all the corruption, abuses of power, and assorted scandals, and the general embarrassment of this nation that took place under the administration of Bill Clinton, and of Hillary's role in all of that.

If Hillary had won the nomination, then you can certainly bet that by now, McCain's campaign as well as various independent conservative sources would be doing their damnedest to remind the voters of this, and I think that come November, Hillary wouldn't stand a chance.

 

[Upchurch]

It seems that Americans have a short memory, with regard to all the corruption, abuses of power, and assorted scandals, and the general embarrassment of this nation that took place under the administration of Bill Clinton, and of Hillary's role in all of that.

I think you are overly simplifying it. Yeah, Bill was not a great guy, but he has generally been remembered as a pretty good President, especially in light of what came after (but excluding his ugly performances during the primaries).

If it came down to going back to a Bill Clinton-like Presidency or continuing with a George Bush-like Presidency, I think most Americans would tend toward the former.

 

[davefoc]

It seems that Americans have a short memory, with regard to all the corruption, abuses of power, and assorted scandals, and the general embarrassment of this nation that took place under the administration of Bill Clinton, and of Hillary's role in all of that.

If Hillary had won the nomination, then you can certainly bet that by now, McCain's campaign as well as various independent conservative sources would be doing their damnedest to remind the voters of this, and I think that come November, Hillary wouldn't stand a chance.

That's the wild card in this calculation and I don't know how it plays out. I was wondering what other people had to say about that issue. I thought it would be disastrous for Clinton and yet she almost won the nomination in spite of it. I wondered how she managed to dodge questions about the Mark Rich pardons.

The major fall back for Clinton was exactly what Upchurch just said: Most people, if given the chance, would take eight additional years of Bill Clinton instead of the last eight years of Bush. People care more about the governance of the country than the personal foibles of the leader and most people see Bush as some kind of disaster. A lot of flack aimed at H. Clinton would not have had traction just because of that.

 

[davefoc]

No, it wouldn't. In fact, he might have gone for Condi Rice.

I am so wrong so many times I hesitate to offer an opinion on this but of all the prominent Republicans for the VP slot suggested I thought Rice was the least likely.

1. McCain has a total lock on the racist anti-black voters, he just wasn't going to give that up to pick Rice. Rice offered almost no chance to dig into the black Obama voting blocks to compensate for the loss of the racist block.

2. Picking Rice would have opened up a huge can of worms about her role as NSA in decisions that might have left the US vulnerable to the September 11 attacks.

3. McCain already had a problem with the fundamentalist base, picking the potentially gay and at any rate not particularly religious Rice was not going to be well received.

4. McCain needed to separate himself from the Bush administration picking one of the most prominent members of the Bush administration was not going to help that.

5. Rice had no elected experience either as a legislator or an executive. Admittedly McCain took a huge chance with the Palin pick but Rice's complete lack of campaign experience was a complete wild card and unless there were huge compensating factors it seems unlikely that McCain would have taken that big a chance.

The only VP pick that might have been worse for McCain was Lieberman. Lieberman would have guaranteed a loss I suspect. Rice would have not been much better.