How to go about verifying mathematical papers?

[IllegalArgument]

I have for many years had an interesting Nassim Taleb's work, most famously known for the idea of the Black Swan.

He has a lot of very interesting ideas in his books, supposedly back up by technical papers. If his ideas about prediction and risk, if true, could have a big impact.

The problem is I'm not knowledgeable enough in statistics among other math subjects to determine if he's right.

If you were in my position, how would you go about verifying his work?

Link to some of his papers.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B_3...S00MGMwLWIxNmQtYjMyNDFiYjY0MTJl/edit?hl=en_GB

 

[lenny]

If his ideas about prediction and risk, if true, could have a big impact.

The problem is I'm not knowledgeable enough in statistics among other math subjects to determine if he's right.

If you were in my position, how would you go about verifying ...

Give us one example of a precise mathematical/statistical claim regarding prediction or predictability, and a citation to where he says it, and lets see if it holds.

 

[IllegalArgument]

Good point, except he's attacking the idea of prediction. I'll try and narrow down one technical paper to something post-able.

 

[lenny]

Good point, except he's attacking the idea of prediction. I'll try and narrow down one technical paper to something post-able.

thanks.
i almost certainly have access to the relevant technical paper. if you post the citation and a page number/paragraph i'm happy to take a look.

we can try narrowing together. (my day job will kick in on monday )