How do we know a pandemic's over?

[Chanakya]

Does the WHO, for globally, and/or local authorities (including national authorities, or states, or whatever) go out and announce "All clear, as you were, everyone stop being psychotic germaphobes!")? Or are people expected to read the equivalent into a gradual dwindling of panic messages as well as actual cases?

Because now that things are kind of sort of easing out, more and more of folks --- not just the crazies, but regular folks --- have started easing off on the protocols. To the point it's getting awkward, socially. One is starting to come across as a germaphobe.

Which is fine, I'm cool with loons thinking I'm whatever, as long as I'm clear they're the ones that are the loons. Except: Are they? Am I sure?


So, reality check: Does anyone know how this is supposed to actually work? Take it as ongoing pandemic until clearly announced otherwise? Or let common sense guide you, so that dwindling hospitalizations equals you can give the mask a rest with friends and colleagues, unless you're full on in a public place with lots of people around --- and so on with the rest of the measures that one has by now internalized?

I mean, better safe than sorry. On the other hand, one doesn't want to morph into a weirdo oneself in the process.



(Not so much about the science of it, so I thought here might be apt.)

 

[Venom]

Someone in this forum once said that more people should wear masks when they have colds and I agree. I wish that was a regular occurrence. It is for active TB patients. I hope the practice outlives the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

[Chanakya]

They do that in some parts of the world. Can be a bit unsettling --- or used to be, in more innocent times.

Sure, I take your point. And I agree, it would be great if that became more 'normal' everywhere, absolutely.

But, for now, I was wondering specifically as far as the Covid thing.

 

[TragicMonkey]

We'll know it's over when Fox News declares it definitely isn't over and urges precautions be taken.

 

[Venom]

They do that in some parts of the world. Can be a bit unsettling --- or used to be, in more innocent times.

Sure, I take your point. And I agree, it would be great if that became more 'normal' everywhere, absolutely.

But, for now, I was wondering specifically as far as the Covid thing.

yeah true especially in the Far East.

 

[Thermal]

Having a vision of a daily Two Minutes Pandemic in front of the telescreen.

 

[Puppycow]

Does the WHO, for globally, and/or local authorities (including national authorities, or states, or whatever) go out and announce "All clear, as you were, everyone stop being psychotic germaphobes!")?

Actually, yes, I do expect the WHO at some point to declare that the pandemic is over. After all, they are the ones who officially declared that it had begun. The date of that declaration was March 11, 2020, by the way.

Or let common sense guide you, so that dwindling hospitalizations equals you can give the mask a rest with friends and colleagues, unless you're full on in a public place with lots of people around --- and so on with the rest of the measures that one has by now internalized?

That approach makes the most sense to me.

I mean, better safe than sorry. On the other hand, one doesn't want to morph into a weirdo oneself in the process.

Where I live (Japan) nobody is taking their masks off just yet. For one thing, cases are still fairly high here. For another, there's more of a culture of masking here, and was such a culture even before the pandemic (it has only been reinforced since then). I'm more worried about the opposite problem: what if it never returns to being socially acceptable to go around without a mask on anymore? Because everyone is afraid to be the first one to take their mask off in public?

Look at this photo of a typical street scene in Japan these days:
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14571920

 

[angrysoba]

Yep. More than 99% of people in Japan are currently wearing masks. Get on a train and there might be ONE(!) person not wearing a mask.

 

[mgidm86]

Trust the politicians. If they say it's over you can be damn sure it is.

 

[abaddon]

We will know it's over when the bodies stop piling up. And I say that as an at risk person.

 

[TofuFighter]

Google tells me just over 6 million deaths worldwide at this stage.
Trends are all down, trends are down in my country (South Africa). 7-day average of new cases is ±1500.
Everyone still wears masks in all shopping centres in more populated areas (where I work), but I notice that I am one of the few who wears a mask in the more remote small stores (where I live), and that includes the store's owners.

If you consider that China is having a surge of cases now, with numbers in the UK and other European countries being affected by new variants and subvariants, it's probably too soon to be asking this question.

As strange as it sounds, humans should probably be wearing masks forever from now if we care about net positive health.

 

[The Atheist]

Actually, yes, I do expect the WHO at some point to declare that the pandemic is over.

That's correct, although various countries have declared it over by removing all restrictions.

I'll be interested to see how many people continue wearing masks - I expect it will fade out everywhere masks weren't worn as a matter of course beforehand.

 

[dann]

Trust the politicians. If they say it's over you can be damn sure it is.

Which politicians? Ron DeSantis? Or is it sarcasm?

In Denmark, the epidemic was declared to be over when the vast majority of adults were vaccinated and the country switched to the Swedish herd-immunity-by-infection strategy after which the death toll skyrocketed. We are still pretending that Omicron is a mild variant that we just need to get used to even though it obviously isn't.

Den 11. marts er det to år siden, Danmark lukkede ned. De seneste to år burde have lært os ydmyghed over for pandemier. Men i stedet har vi et enten-eller-forhold til corona. Enten taler vi om den hele tiden. Eller overhovedet ikke.
Corona går ikke væk ved at tie den ihjel (Jyllands-Posten.dk, March 10, 2022)

On March 11, it has been two years since Denmark locked down. The two years should have taught us humility when confronted with pandemics. But instead, we have an either-or attitude to coronavirus. We either talk about it all the time. Or not at all.
Coronavirus doesn't go away because we try to hush it up

Twitter thread with quotations from the article (in Danish):

"Many people have - tongue-in-cheek - told be that it almost feels as a civic duty to get infected with Omicron. We just have to learn to live with the virus without restrictions - it is portrayed as "common sense" and shuts down any discussion. It is an old rhetorical trick." /6
"And were we are in March 2022 with extremely high numbers of new daily deaths. With a massive excess mortality in the 65+-year olds and especially in those older than 75." /7
"The Danish health authorities estimate that 50 percent of the population was infected since late-November. With a growing percentage of the population having had - or living with - long-Covid." /8
https://twitter.com/CBroendsholmA/status/1502567016686837761?cxt=HHwWgoCzjbSvmNopAAAA

I still avoid using public transport, and I wear a face mask when I go shopping, even if I am the only one. If they come up with an effective vaccine against Omicron, I may drop the mask. (By the way, weren't the Omicron-specific vaccines expected to be ready this month?)

We Will Never Get "Back to Normal" (Rebecca Watson on YouTube, Feb 17, 2022 - 13:17 min.)

 

[The Atheist]

...the death toll skyrocketed...

Skyrocketed! Wow, must be really bad.

So let's have a look at that skyrocket, shall we?

What's a good source? SSI maybe? The State Serum Institute of Denmark, the official body on the matter, has this to say: “typical misinformation about (Danish) Covid-19 numbers”

Specifically:

“However, as from week 1, 2022, mortality has decreased in Denmark and now approaches the normal and expected level. This occurs in spite of an increased number of persons with a positive PCR-test in Denmark and is considered to reflect the fact that the dominant Omicron variant causes less mortality in persons infected with this variant compared to persons infected with previous variants,” it continues.

“It is correct that people still die from Covid-19, but because the Omicron variant causes less mortality than previous variants, an increasing number of those SARS-CoV-2 infected persons who die, die with Covid-19 and not because of Covid-19,” it said.

Bolding mine.

We Will Never Get "Back to Normal" (Rebecca Watson on YouTube, Feb 17, 2022 - 13:17 min.)

That is priceless, you used Rebecca Watson as a source.

Legend.

 

[angrysoba]

Amy Rosenfeld on This Week in Virology made a prediction that the pandemic would last five years.

Her marker is 1 case in 100,000.

However, I think she does think it will end sooner in places where there have been high rates of vaccination, but given that there are many parts of the world where vaccination is low, that could still take time:

https://youtu.be/jqoVHm_EVmA?t=347

Things are getting worse in Hong Kong and China now, of course.

They also then talk about sub-Saharan Africa, South-East Asia and then mention Ukraine.

They say that the vaccination rate in Ukraine is about a third, and then suggests numbers dying at around 1000 a day. (I don't think we have figures since the start of the war, so I wonder where the numbers come from).

 

[smartcooky]

Someone in this forum once said that more people should wear masks when they have colds and I agree. I wish that was a regular occurrence. It is for active TB patients. I hope the practice outlives the COVID-19 pandemic.

Since I started wearing a mask in March 2020 when the pandemic first hit, I have not had a cold or influenza. Furthermore, every year without fail, for as far back as I remember, I have suffered really bad hay fever and allergies from two sources - Wattle flowering season (May – August) and pine pollen season (July to September) - watery, irritated eyes, itchy skin around the eyes and eye sockets - I really dreaded its arrival every year.

However, I didn't get it in 2020 or 2021. I will continue to wear a mask now, at least during those months, even after the pandemic is done and dusted!

 

[Puppycow]

Although clinical trials on an Omicron-specific vaccine are already underway, it appears that the vaccine won’t be available to the public until later this year. The trials have to be completed, and all of the regulatory procedures finished and manufacturing and distribution and so on. They may be ready by autumn. By then of course, we’ll probably be on to the next variant or maybe several next variants, perhaps rendering it moot. But it’s worth a try.

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220312/p2a/00m/0na/002000c

 

[Puppycow]

Since I started wearing a mask in March 2020 when the pandemic first hit, I have not had a cold or influenza. Furthermore, every year without fail, for as far back as I remember, I have suffered really bad hay fever and allergies from two sources - Wattle flowering season (May – August) and pine pollen season (July to September) - watery, irritated eyes, itchy skin around the eyes and eye sockets - I really dreaded its arrival every year.

However, I didn't get it in 2020 or 2021. I will continue to wear a mask now, at least during those months, even after the pandemic is done and dusted!

A lot of allergy sufferers in Japan wore masks before the pandemic for exactly that reason.

 

[ponderingturtle]

It is a hard line to really gauge, because it is when has it gone from pandemic to endemic. It seems highly unlikely to go away at this point.

 

[theprestige]

Around here it only takes about two weeks of social distancing and masks to smooth out the surge of hospital admissions, then everything pretty much goes back to normal.


... What?