• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

HIV/AIDS Crisis deepens

or not, depending on you data:

AIDS in Africa may be overestimated


The expected number of Africans who carry HIV/AIDS has been overestimated by millions, new research indicates.

The preliminary report of the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey, published on Thursday, will dismay those who say the West is ignoring an acute pandemic on the African continent.

Scientists said the report will force a rethink of how the United Nations measures AIDS prevalence in Africa
Click to expand...
 
Presumably we (and by that I mean our politicians) are not too worried on the grounds that the vast majority of people contracting HIV/AIDS are a very long way away, are very poor (which doesn't make them much of a market for our goods) and are a different colour to those who run our country.

Maybe this news will increase the pressure on the first world to make anti-retroviral drugs more affordable
 
I BEG correction by any and all more knowledgable about the AIDS/HIV subject.

My prespective is that the disease is really not worthy of worry, at least as compared to head-to-head with other diseases/causes of death.

My personal risk factor approches zero. My children may be at greater risk but since they are all male and are not, so far as I know, homosexuals or IV drug users, they too shoulder little or no risk.

Am I mistaken?

From a political point of view, I suppose much ado can be made of it. Everything from the (previously addressed) estimates of infection to concerns about trade and economics. But these too are simply political concerns that will not make much difference in the long run.
 
Depends where you live.

Worldwide there are a great many male hetrosexual non-drug users with HIV/AIDS so long as you don't come into contact with them sexually, by transfusion or by engaging in any other high risk activity then you should be fine. Of course the world economy collapsing because there's no-one left in the third world to work for us may be a trifle inconvenient.
 
Yes it does affect us (in the UK), we import a lot of cases, especially London where i think the largest cause of new HIV cases is importing.
 
The Don said:
Depends where you live.

Worldwide there are a great many male hetrosexual non-drug users with HIV/AIDS so long as you don't come into contact with them sexually, by transfusion or by engaging in any other high risk activity then you should be fine. Of course the world economy collapsing because there's no-one left in the third world to work for us may be a trifle inconvenient.
Click to expand...

Not to insult but if I remove the rhetoric from your post then I have to conclude that, indeed, the disease is unlikely impact me unless I am forced to pay for, directly or indirectly, the treatment/disposition of those that contract it.

You state that there are 'a great many' in my/mine category with the disease. I suggest that this is a difficult statement to back up, especially if you consider the cultural/economic/health aspects of my/mine category and not just those I specifically stated.
 
Prester John said:
Yes it does affect us (in the UK), we import a lot of cases, especially London where i think the largest cause of new HIV cases is importing.
Click to expand...

What is the simple solution to that problem?
 
Rob Lister said:
Not to insult but if I remove the rhetoric from your post then I have to conclude that, indeed, the disease is unlikely impact me unless I am forced to pay for, directly or indirectly, the treatment/disposition of those that contract it.

You state that there are 'a great many' in my/mine category with the disease. I suggest that this is a difficult statement to back up, especially if you consider the cultural/economic/health aspects of my/mine category and not just those I specifically stated.
Click to expand...
Absolutely. For the same reason, unless you are in a target group you needn't worry about famine (after all it's not going to happen to you), certain genetic disorders (assuming you're white sickle cell anaemia is unlikely to be a problem) or indeed anything happening to other people a long way away.

So long as your boys only have unprotected sex with women for whom they are the only partner, require no transfusions of blood or use of blood products (after all the supply is only very, very, very, safe) and never indulge in any high-risk behaviour then they'll be fine.

To illustrate how easy it could be to acquire HIV though. Perhaps one of them has unprotected sex with a woman who had unprotected sex with a man who had unprotected sex with a woman who had unprotected sex with a man who had unprotected sex with a woman who had unprotected sex with a man who had unprotected sex with a whore in Kenya or Thailand or, perhaps in the good ol' US of A
 
require no transfusions of blood or use of blood products
Click to expand...

Its aboout 1 in 1,000,000 for HIV in the West, we haven't had a HIV transmission for a couple of years in the UK. Hep B is about 1 in 500,000.

Small chance but they do occur.
 
Rob Lister said:
You state that there are 'a great many' in my/mine category with the disease. I suggest that this is a difficult statement to back up, especially if you consider the cultural/economic/health aspects of my/mine category and not just those I specifically stated.
Click to expand...
Actually I only said they were hetrosexual non-drug users. They happen to be, in the main, Africans who have sex with prostitutes while working away from home.

I hope your life is nowhere lnear as miserable as theirs and therefore you are not in the same category
 
Rob Lister said:
What is the simple solution to that problem?
Click to expand...
Prohibit international travel under all circumstances ?

Kill all the Druggies, Fags, Whores and Wogs ?

Dunno, you tell me
 
Drooper said:
or not, depending on you data:

AIDS in Africa may be overestimated


Click to expand...

So that's OK then - only 22 million Africans have HIV and not 28 million as they originally thought.

Seriously, tho, the estimates for Africa have always tended to be high. This was partly because of the way stats are collated, and WHO and MRC surveys have incoorectly extrapolated seroprevalence rates from STD clinics and antenatal clinics and applied them to all adults. Obviously those with STDs and those who are pregnant represent the groups at highest risk and with the highest seroprevalence, so estimates for all adults should have taken this into account, but it was not always done.

Another problem is the media take on stats. They want catastrophe-style headlines, so a scientific paper that states "HIV seroprevalence is estimated to be between 15 and 29%" will be publicised as:
AIDS HORROR! 30% WITH HIV!
 
The Don said:

Absolutely. For the same reason, unless you are in a target group you needn't worry about famine (after all it's not going to happen to you), certain genetic disorders (assuming you're white sickle cell anaemia is unlikely to be a problem) or indeed anything happening to other people a long way away.

So long as your boys only have unprotected sex with women for whom they are the only partner, require no transfusions of blood or use of blood products (after all the supply is only very, very, very, safe) and never indulge in any high-risk behaviour then they'll be fine.

To illustrate how easy it could be to acquire HIV though. Perhaps one of them has unprotected sex with a woman who had unprotected sex with a man who had unprotected sex with a woman who had unprotected sex with a man who had unprotected sex with a woman who had unprotected sex with a man who had unprotected sex with a whore in Kenya or Thailand or, perhaps in the good ol' US of A
Click to expand...

I want to stay on point but I'm finding it difficult. I'll skip your first and second paragraph (they are strawmen but I don't think you meant them as such) and focus on the third. What are the odds of first-world boy/man 'catching' HIV/AIDS from a first-world, or even third-world girl/woman that has HIV/AIDS? My understanding is that the odds surpass slim and border on none, especially if you consider the margin of error for determining causation.
 
Rob Lister said:


What are the odds of first-world boy/man 'catching' HIV/AIDS from a first-world, or even third-world girl/woman that has HIV/AIDS? My understanding is that the odds surpass slim and border on none, especially if you consider the margin of error for determining causation.
Click to expand...

There are no absolutes. Transmission has been recorded after a single exposure, and there again regular partners where one has HIV and one not can sometimes remain that way for years despite hundreds of episodes of UPSI (unprotected sexual intercourse).

Current "average" is that the risk for UPSI is 1:500 or so. Some take this to mean they can fool around as much as they like, and only the 500th partner they sleep with would give them HIV. The true analogy is with the lottery ticket. Each week in the UK you have a chance of 1:14million of winning. Someone wins every week, some have won with their first ever ticket purchase. Some will never win, even if they bought tens of millions of tickets in their lifetime. Trouble is, no-one can predict which one YOU might be.
 
The Don said:

Prohibit international travel under all circumstances ?

Kill all the Druggies, Fags, Whores and Wogs ?

Dunno, you tell me
Click to expand...

How about requiring that 'travelers' be tested before hand, at their expense. I understand there are political implications to this and I really have not given it much thought.
 
Deetee said:


There are no absolutes. Transmission has been recorded after a single exposure, and there again regular partners where one has HIV and one not can sometimes remain that way for years despite hundreds of episodes of UPSI (unprotected sexual intercourse).

Current "average" is that the risk for UPSI is 1:500 or so. Some take this to mean they can fool around as much as they like, and only the 500th partner they sleep with would give them HIV. The true analogy is with the lottery ticket. Each week in the UK you have a chance of 1:14million of winning. Someone wins every week, some have won with their first ever ticket purchase. Some will never win, even if they bought tens of millions of tickets in their lifetime. Trouble is, no-one can predict which one YOU might be.
Click to expand...

Please, if you can, back up your assertions with professional studies. I'm specifically interested in any-world-female-to-first-world-male transmission. There's a method to my bias and maddness that surpasses politics (IMO). I don't think the female-to-male risk approches your figure of 1:500. I'd be surprised if the risk was even 1:5,000,000.

I don't mind being surprised, btw. I'm not trying to be difficult.

Added in edit: My (possibly incorrect) understanding is that it is exceedingly difficult for a 'healthy' male to contract AIDS/HIV from a female carrier. By 'healthy' I am speaking of males that do not have open sores about their privates (or whatever constitutes 'privates' in the given situation). I understand that for woman it is a much greater risk but only because they are the primary 'recipient' of transfered fluids.

Anywhy, that's my case, much of it in edit.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom