Deetee
Illuminator
- Joined
- Jul 8, 2003
- Messages
- 3,789
Brilliant article.
Just wish it appeared in a magazine with wider readership.
Just wish it appeared in a magazine with wider readership.
The model predicts that there will be a significant wave in autumn, with 63% of the population being infected, and that this wave will peak so early that the planned CDC vaccination campaign will likely not have a large effect on the total number of people ultimately infected by the pandemic H1N1 influenza virus.
The report itself predicts the infection peak will be near the end of October, just a week or two away, with 8 percent of the population infected in that week alone. By the end of the year, the authors say, 63 percent of Americans will have been infected. However, they estimate that "about a quarter of the population will fall ill," with the others being asymptomatic.
That means 193 million Americans will contract H1N1 by January 1, and almost 77 million will fall ill. How many of those will require hospitalization remains to be seen. The authors say the vaccination program will at best prevent only 6 percent of infections. But "If we assume a 40% symptomatic infection rate, and a mortality rate of between 0.05% and 0.5%, this corresponds to an estimated prevention of between 2,500 and 25,000 deaths."
The actual number of lives saved, they argue, would be lower, because many people (especially children) will be vaccinated too late to form antibodies before they're infected.
What's the big worry? It's just laymen dispensing life-and-death medical advice in the middle of an epidemic. What could possibly go wrong?Geese, now they've graduated to threatening to murder vaccine researchers. No longer content to put their own kids at risk these fools believe they have to save the rest of the world's children by spreading ignorance.
It's like a sci fi story where some mob goes nuts and starts murdering people out of fear they had no reason to have.
Uhhhh.... That isn't new. Didn't [Forgot his name. He was on the CBS news show about Wakefield] have his kids threatened?Geese, now they've graduated to threatening to murder vaccine researchers. No longer content to put their own kids at risk these fools believe they have to save the rest of the world's children by spreading ignorance.
It's like a sci fi story where some mob goes nuts and starts murdering people out of fear they had no reason to have.
http://www.wired.com/magazine/2009/10/ff_waronscience/Hence the death threats against Paul Offit...
Curt Linderman Sr., the host of “Linderman Live!” on AutismOne Radio and the editor of a blog called the Autism File, recently wrote online that it would “be nice” if Offit “was dead.”
I’d met Linderman at Autism One. He’d given his card to me as we stood outside the Westin O’Hare talking about his autistic son. “We live in a very toxic world,” he’d told me, puffing on a cigarette.
http://humupd.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/6/2/122Cadmium (a heavy metal), nicotine (a toxic alkaloid), and its metabolite cotinine, are detectable in gonadal tissues and fluids in association with smoking. Cotinine incorporates into ovarian granulosa–lutein cells, compromising the developmental potential of follicles. Benzo[a]pyrene is a carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon resulting from cigarette combustion. Its reactive metabolite binds covalently to DNA, forming adducts. Smoking-related adducts were detectable in ovarian granulosa–lutein cells, oocytes, spermatozoa and preimplantation embryos. Transmission of altered DNA from smoking by spermatozoa was demonstrated in preimplantation embryos and in association with increased risk of childhood cancer.
Monash University researchers have shown that babies born to a mother who smokes are more likely to be slower to wake or respond to stimulation - and this may explain their increased risk of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS).
Geese, now they've graduated to threatening to murder vaccine researchers. ....
Hence the death threats against Paul Offit. Curt Linderman Sr., the host of “Linderman Live!” on AutismOne Radio and the editor of a blog called the Autism File, recently wrote online that it would “be nice” if Offit “was dead.”
I’d met Linderman at Autism One. He’d given his card to me as we stood outside the Westin O’Hare talking about his autistic son. “We live in a very toxic world,” he’d told me, puffing on a cigarette.