Government Shutdown - Will It Happen?

[Dumb All Over]

Yesterday, I prepared my staff for what I believe is the inevitable. In just over a week, the U.S. Government will shutdown and my employees will be told to stay home until a full budget or continuing resolution is passed.

A few federal workers I have spoken with over the last few days believe the issue will somehow be resolved by next Friday and no shutdown will occur. I don't have much faith in that belief. I personally put the odds of a shutdown at about seventy five percent.

What do you think? What are the odds that the gov't will shutdown come a week from this Monday?

 

[tyr_13]

'Vacations*' seem likely. A shut down like the one in the nineties is unlikely. Both parties fear being painted as obstructionists. The wild card, as always, are the Tea Party caucus, who really are obstructionist as a tactic and are only loosely controlled by the Republican caucus.

*It seems I can't spell the proper word for it close enough for even Google to figure it out.

 

[TragicMonkey]

My uncle's fairly senior civil service. He's been planning his vacation for weeks now, seems certain it's going to happen.

 

[sarge]

My uncle's fairly senior civil service. He's been planning his vacation for weeks now, seems certain it's going to happen.

I am a federal management official. We are making plans for the possibility that the goverment will issue furlough instructions late next week. It isn't certain there will be a furlough, nor is it certain that if there is a furlough, it will be universal.

Of course, the union is already posturing itself to demand that it's members get furloughed AND get paid.

 

[Puppycow]

They could do a temporary continuing resolution to give themselves some more time.

 

[Alferd_Packer]

Employees of governemnt contractors unlike the federal employees, won't get back pay.

Depending on the nature of the funding, many outsourced services may be hit hard.

 

[TragicMonkey]

I am a federal management official. We are making plans for the possibility that the goverment will issue furlough instructions late next week. It isn't certain there will be a furlough, nor is it certain that if there is a furlough, it will be universal.

And that's very official sounding, indeed! My uncle's already got the plane tickets, though. Either he has confidence, knows something you don't, or he just doesn't give a damn anymore. He plans to retire this year anyway.

 

[tyr_13]

I am a federal management official. We are making plans for the possibility that the goverment will issue furlough instructions late next week. It isn't certain there will be a furlough, nor is it certain that if there is a furlough, it will be universal.

Of course, the union is already posturing itself to demand that it's members get furloughed AND get paid.

That's the word!

 

[Dumb All Over]

Employees of governemnt contractors unlike the federal employees, won't get back pay.

This is not necessarily true. In '95 I was supervising at a different agency as a contractor. Unlike some other agencies and federal workers, we were furloughed for only about three days, iirc. After the incident had blown over, the agency independently decided to pay my employees for the three days. Some agencies may have some leaway to pay contractors while some other agencies might not.

 

[sarge]

And that's very official sounding, indeed! My uncle's already got the plane tickets, though. Either he has confidence, knows something you don't, or he just doesn't give a damn anymore. He plans to retire this year anyway.

I don't want to give the wrong impression. I am management, but I am not "senior" in the grand scheme of things. I wouldn't necessarily learn of a furlough any quicker than the average TV watching American would - maybe later. I do work for the Army however, and we plan for every contingency, without regard for bothersome things such as "likelyhood" or even "the laws of physics".

 

[sarge]

Employees of governemnt contractors unlike the federal employees, won't get back pay.

I'm not certain either end of that is necessarily true.


I (or my employees) administer several different types of contracts. For our service contracts, we occasionally pay for an availability of service, not an actual service rendered. In that case, the contractor will get paid whether we are furloughed or not. It would be up to the contractor to decide whether to pay his employees or not.

I've never experienced a furlough myself, but one contingency includes requiring furloughed employees to either take personal leave and get paid, or enter a Leave Without Pay status for the duration of the furlough. If they opt for the paid leave status, the pay is defered until the expiration of the furlough.

Depending on the nature of the funding, many outsourced services may be hit hard.

Possibly. Maybe even probably.

 

[TragicMonkey]

I don't want to give the wrong impression. I am management, but I am not "senior" in the grand scheme of things. I wouldn't necessarily learn of a furlough any quicker than the average TV watching American would - maybe later. I do work for the Army however, and we plan for every contingency, without regard for bothersome things such as "likelyhood" or even "the laws of physics".

You couldn't possibly plan for every contingency. Like an invasion of matter-permeable nanobot robomonkeys from beyond space, hellbent on collecting femoral arteries for use in constructing their elaborate conceptual art pieces. The robomonkeys are armed with lemonizing rays, and cannot be seen, heard, smelt, or touched in any fashion. Mirrors are their omens, and lamentations their perfume.

 

[Newtons Bit]

You couldn't possibly plan for every contingency. Like an invasion of matter-permeable nanobot robomonkeys from beyond space, hellbent on collecting femoral arteries for use in constructing their elaborate conceptual art pieces. The robomonkeys are armed with lemonizing rays, and cannot be seen, heard, smelt, or touched in any fashion. Mirrors are their omens, and lamentations their perfume.

Wasn't that a Doctor Who episode?

 

[Dumb All Over]

You couldn't possibly plan for every contingency. Like an invasion of matter-permeable nanobot robomonkeys from beyond space, hellbent on collecting femoral arteries for use in constructing their elaborate conceptual art pieces. The robomonkeys are armed with lemonizing rays, and cannot be seen, heard, smelt, or touched in any fashion. Mirrors are their omens, and lamentations their perfume.

My staff and I actually have a contingency plan for this very real possibility. The plan is to call TragicMonkey and have him handle it.

 

[dudalb]

As a Fed, I predict a 2 day shutdown. They have some wriggle room with the first two shutdown days being Saturday and Sunday.
I don't see a three week shutdown like in 95/96.The GOP remembers how much that hurt them in 95/96.

 

[TragicMonkey]

My staff and I actually have a contingency plan for this very real possibility. The plan is to call TragicMonkey and have him handle it.

I'd laugh all the way to the bank. Who do you think controls the robomonkeys?

 

[sarge]

You couldn't possibly plan for every contingency. Like an invasion of matter-permeable nanobot robomonkeys from beyond space, hellbent on collecting femoral arteries for use in constructing their elaborate conceptual art pieces. The robomonkeys are armed with lemonizing rays, and cannot be seen, heard, smelt, or touched in any fashion. Mirrors are their omens, and lamentations their perfume.

Not only do we have a plan for this eventuality, we have branches and sequels for offshoots of this very real possibility. If the nanobot robomonkeys can actually be seen but not heard, or heard but not smelt, we are covered.

Frankly, this is one of the mundane ones. The likelyhood of nanobot robomonkey invasion is so high that we rehearse this plan regularly. Some of the more exoctic plans, we'd have to dust off and update.