GOP Likely to Take Senate in 2012

Brainster

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According to Larry Sabato:

Republicans need to pick up either three or four seats, depending on whether they have the vice president’s tie-breaking vote in 2013. North Dakota is all-but-switched to the GOP already. Besides North Dakota, the hardest states for Democrats to hold will be Nebraska, Montana and Missouri, in that order, because it’s hard to imagine Obama winning any of those states. Nebraska will probably feature a runaway GOP presidential victory, further damaging Sen. Ben Nelson’s (D) chances of reelection.

It’s still early, and anything (read: scandals, a changing economy and international events) could happen to alter the basic dynamics of 2012. Yet the Republicans have so many tempting Senate targets that Mitch McConnell (R-KY) could trade “minority” for “majority” in his leadership title quite easily.

Sabato's Crystal Ball has been very accurate in the past:

The Crystal Ball has been a leader in accurately predicting elections since its inception. In 2004, the Crystal Ball notched a 99 percent accuracy rate in predicting all races for House, Senate, Governor and each state’s Electoral College outcome. In 2006 the Pew Research Center and the Pew Charitable Trusts’ Project for Excellence in Journalism recognized the Crystal Ball as the leader in the field of political predictors, noting that the site “came closer than any other of the top ten potential predictors this cycle.”

2008 was yet another banner year, as the Crystal Ball came the closest of any national prognosticator in predicting the results of the presidential race, while achieving a 100 percent accuracy rating by correctly predicting the result of every single gubernatorial and Senate race across the country.

InTrade agrees, putting the odds of GOP control at 72%.
 
With as many Democratic seats up in 2012 as there are, it is quite possible. All the Republicans have to do is keep their boot to the throat of they economy by shutting down any job creation, and they may achieve that goal. Of course, if they overplay their hand, and the public finally catches on that the real threat is the jobs situation, and not the debt ceiling B.S., it may all blow up in their faces.

Daredelvis
 
With as many Democratic seats up in 2012 as there are, it is quite possible. All the Republicans have to do is keep their boot to the throat of they economy by shutting down any job creation, and they may achieve that goal. Of course, if they overplay their hand, and the public finally catches on that the real threat is the jobs situation, and not the debt ceiling B.S., it may all blow up in their faces.

Daredelvis

I'm just curious.

How exactly is the GOP shutting down job creation?
 
I'm just curious.

How exactly is the GOP shutting down job creation?

By refusing to support any stimulus or action targeting job creation, including things they always supported like tax cuts?

Let's face it. Republicans want the economy to fail so they can win an election. It's cynical, but that's where half the country is right now.
 
By refusing to support any stimulus or action targeting job creation, including things they always supported like tax cuts?

Let's face it. Republicans want the economy to fail so they can win an election. It's cynical, but that's where half the country is right now.

Yea,those other stimulus programs worked so well.

All those shovel ready jobs and what not.
 
Yea,those other stimulus programs worked so well.

All those shovel ready jobs and what not.

Actually, of course it worked. The economy was losing 750,000 jobs a month under Bush and after passing the stimulus we're now adding jobs every month and the stock market has fully recovered.

But aside from that, you ignored the question. Why is the GOP suddenly against tax cuts? The only explanation is they are hurting the economy on purpose. Do you have an alternate theory? I'm all ears.
 
Actually, of course it worked. The economy was losing 750,000 jobs a month under Bush and after passing the stimulus we're now adding jobs every month and the stock market has fully recovered.

But aside from that, you ignored the question. Why is the GOP suddenly against tax cuts? The only explanation is they are hurting the economy on purpose. Do you have an alternate theory? I'm all ears.

The stock market has fully recovered? Where in hell do you live?
 
Actually, of course it worked. The economy was losing 750,000 jobs a month under Bush and after passing the stimulus we're now adding jobs every month and the stock market has fully recovered.

But aside from that, you ignored the question. Why is the GOP suddenly against tax cuts? The only explanation is they are hurting the economy on purpose. Do you have an alternate theory? I'm all ears.

Well, off the top of my head I wonder...

Will there also be cuts in spending?
How much will the stimulus cost this time?

Is it worth voting for those tax cuts to put us further under?

I really would like to see some concrete data before they pass another stimulus pkg myself.
 
Actually, of course it worked. The economy was losing 750,000 jobs a month under Bush and after passing the stimulus we're now adding jobs every month

LOL! :rolleyes:

Never mind that I can show you recession after recession and depression after depression where the recovery was much faster than now ... and yet no spending stimulus was applied. Never mind that you can't show us a recession or depression where a spending stimulus led to a rapid recover. In fact, just the opposite was done in the numerous cases where recovery from just as serious an economic crisis as this one were much, much faster. Never mind that even the Obama administration predicted that the economy would do far better than now WITHOUT a stimulus. Has it ever occurred to you (and we've certainly tried to point it out to you in the past), that Obama's actions made matters worse. Just like Hoover's actions (followed by FDR's) made matters worse in the 30s? The problem is you liberals/socialists/democrats NEVER learn from history. You either ignore it, spin it or try to alter it. :D
 
LOL! :rolleyes:

Never mind that I can show you recession after recession and depression after depression where the recovery was much faster than now ... and yet no spending stimulus was applied. Never mind that you can't show us a recession or depression where a spending stimulus led to a rapid recover. In fact, just the opposite was done in the numerous cases where recovery from just as serious an economic crisis as this one were much, much faster. Never mind that even the Obama administration predicted that the economy would do far better than now WITHOUT a stimulus. Has it ever occurred to you (and we've certainly tried to point it out to you in the past), that Obama's actions made matters worse. Just like Hoover's actions (followed by FDR's) made matters worse in the 30s? The problem is you liberals/socialists/democrats NEVER learn from history. You either ignore it, spin it or try to alter it. :D
Liberals like George W. Bush? Bush had a stimulus. Two, if you count the tax cuts. So only mentioning liberals or Democrats is biased, one-sided, and unsupported by the evidence. It is spinning or altering the facts.
 
Never mind that I can show you recession after recession and depression after depression where the recovery was much faster than now ... and yet no spending stimulus was applied. Never mind that you can't show us a recession or depression where a spending stimulus led to a rapid recover.

We've been over this in another thread, actually. Your example, the 1981-82 recession, saw considerable increases in deficit spending and spending as a percentage of GDP. Reagan raised taxes in September of 1982 (which even the Mises institute characterized as the largest tax increase in US history) yet the economy did not slink back into recession.

In fact, just the opposite was done in the numerous cases where recovery from just as serious an economic crisis as this one were much, much faster.

There haven't been any as serious as this one since the Great Depression. But let's examine this claim. According to wikipedia, which has a handy list of US recessions, there hasn't been a loss of GDP this significant since the recession of 1945 which lasted 8 months and saw a peak unemployment of 5.2%. In your given example, the early 1980's recession, the recession wasn't nearly as bad yet lasted almost as long. The early 1990's and early 2000's recessions both lasted 8 months and declined 1.4% and .3% of GDP respectively. Let's go back before 1980 then.

The 1973-75 recession lasted 1 year and months with a 3.2% GDP decline.

The 69-70 recession lasted 11 months with a decline of .6% of the GDP.

The 60-61 recession lasted 10 months with a decline of 1.6% of the GDP.

The recession of 1958 lasted 8 months with a decline of 3.1% of the GDP.

The recession of 1953 lasted 10 months with a decline of 2.6% of the GDP.

The recession of 1949 lasted 11 months with a decline of 1.7% of the GDP.

And so on and so forth. Maybe now you'll get what I've been trying to tell you is that these recessions don't occur in an economic vacuum where only the government and its response matters on when it ends and how bad it gets. In your cute little chart you posted as evidence you ignored the simple fact that it gives precisely zero insight into what caused these recessions and how we got out of them. Simply put, you're just using these numbers to score political points without understanding any of the reasons behind them. And, frankly, I don't think you care to.

The problem is you liberals/socialists/democrats NEVER learn from history. You either ignore it, spin it or try to alter it.

There really needs to be a meter to detect broken irony meters.

Apologies to the OP for assisting in the derail.
 
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Well, off the top of my head I wonder...

Will there also be cuts in spending?
How much will the stimulus cost this time?

Is it worth voting for those tax cuts to put us further under?

I really would like to see some concrete data before they pass another stimulus pkg myself.

You're still dodging my question. I'm not arguing for tax cuts. I'm saying that the GOP always, ALWAYS argues for tax cuts, and yet for some unknown reason they aren't now. What changed? And why aren't they for raising taxes in general? Yet they want higher taxes for certain people RIGHT NOW. This is wholly inconsistent with everything else they ever say.

Why is that?
 
You're still dodging my question. I'm not arguing for tax cuts. I'm saying that the GOP always, ALWAYS argues for tax cuts, and yet for some unknown reason they aren't now. What changed? And why aren't they for raising taxes in general? Yet they want higher taxes for certain people RIGHT NOW. This is wholly inconsistent with everything else they ever say.

Why is that?

I'm not dodging at all.
What else is in the bill?

Maybe they are'nt solely against the tax cuts so much as what else is in the bill.
 
There is no bill. The GOP is in control of the house and they just ruled out a payroll tax cut, calling it "short term games". Why?
 
I think the public is going to wind up with a serious case of "buyer's regret" over falling for the Tea Party absolutist BS that the Rs are preaching right now.
 
I think the public is going to wind up with a serious case of "buyer's regret" over falling for the Tea Party absolutist BS that the Rs are preaching right now.

Going to? Hell, it's already happened.

Just look at the approval ratings of any number of new Tea Party governors (in WI, OH, FL, etc) and you can see how happy the electorate is with them. Hint, it's not good.

Of course, that just makes it all the more likely that President Obama will win those states in 2012.
 
To the OP:

I would be amazed if the GOP didn't retake the Senate in 2012, and honestly I don't think it has anything to do with party preference. Just look at the basic electoral math: the Dems have to defend a huge number of seats compared to the Republicans, so the GOP has more resources to defend each seat. That automatically puts the Democrats at a huge disadvantage, and with the current slim margin the Dems hold in the Senate it's not good odds for them.

Two caveats:

1. President Obama's re-election bid will be a shot in the arm for Dems in general, and this may make the difference in their favor for some Senate races in terms of GOTV. However, at best I think this will just make the margin of GOP victory less, not result in the Dems holding the Senate.

2. The House is another question entirely. I can envision a scenario where the House flips to the Dems, especially with many people having the aforementioned buyer's remorse with the Tea Party.
 

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