Global warming discussion IV

Status
Not open for further replies.
[IMGw=640]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170310/093e55ac98e4a3566218383e11b84f8e.jpg[/IMGw]
This image is doing the rounds of the deniers about the placement of weather stations being bias towards Northern Hemisphere and in warmer regions etc...
What's the take down of this nonsense please?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited by a moderator:
!Kaggen said:
What's the take down of this nonsense please?
Click to expand...

That's a very unoriginal exploit of one of the most basic informal fallacies in statistics. There's an old thread here named "87% of weather stations...", started by a sinister character, which contains a lot of it.

The exploit departs from the fact a vast majority of the population -and voters in mass democracies, of course- are pretty ignorant and mostly innumerate. It's all based on an induced inference: the assertion is worded in a way that it makes those hearing it to imagine "global temperature" is a direct average of what all the stations measure worldwide (hence, the induced inference). The fact is that 30 weather stations whitin one million square kilometres of planet represent that million square kilometres of planet, while other 3 in a different million square kilometres of planet represent that different part of the "grid". The problem is how temperatures are projected on areas which are more than one kilometre away from the weather station.

An intelligent denialist would seek that angle, but intelligent denialists are scarcer than unicorns and, regrettably, the ignorance in common people is so deep that they don't require complex stings to be conned, especially when they like to be conned regarding this subject.
 
aleCcowaN said:
That's a very unoriginal exploit of one of the most basic informal fallacies in statistics. There's an old thread here named "87% of weather stations...", started by a sinister character, which contains a lot of it.

The exploit departs from the fact a vast majority of the population -and voters in mass democracies, of course- are pretty ignorant and mostly innumerate. It's all based on an induced inference: the assertion is worded in a way that it makes those hearing it to imagine "global temperature" is a direct average of what all the stations measure worldwide (hence, the induced inference). The fact is that 30 weather stations whitin one million square kilometres of planet represent that million square kilometres of planet, while other 3 in a different million square kilometres of planet represent that different part of the "grid". The problem is how temperatures are projected on areas which are more than one kilometre away from the weather station.

An intelligent denialist would seek that angle, but intelligent denialists are scarcer than unicorns and, regrettably, the ignorance in common people is so deep that they don't require complex stings to be conned, especially when they like to be conned regarding this subject.
Click to expand...



Thanks [emoji1303]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
El Niño is still coming...

Niño3.4 index was meandering between -0.25°C and +0.80°C during the last 30 days (average about +0.25°C).

Niño1.2 is now above +2.7°C (during last episode of El Niño it reached a maximum monthly average of +2.87°C; during the 1997-98 episode, +4.13°C, with 374 dead in mudslides just in Peru).

Speaking of Peru and death toll by mudslide, just this year 72 died there for this cause -22 just this week-. 72,000 have lost their homes, and 570,000 have suffered extended damage in their homes and business premises. There's a shortage of drinking water affecting 18 million people (including those 9.5 millions living in Lima) because the muddy overflown rivers have damaged or hampered the operation of potabilization plants.

This is known as Coastal El Niño, and most of the times is harbinger of what is coming within the next 12 months.

[Death toll is lower because a lot of money has been invested in "adaptation". And that's the creed of Trumpian Republicans: "We drive gigantic SUVs by well paved avenues. Peruvians adapt"]
 
The crack in Larsen C has stopped momentarily because of the soft, adaptable warmer ice. But the gigantic iceberg is still expected to break apart in weeks to come.

The most worrisome aspect is that the crack goes extremely close the Bawden Ice Rise, a "hill" underwater that "pins" the ice shelf and provides some stability to it.

Now Google maps includes some current imagery that allow you to see the crack in the context of the Bawden Ice Rise. Try this link (the icon locates the rise). There are problems with the zoom level of different areas, but you can play with it and get the notion of what's going on there (maybe Google Earth allows a more precise look: the rise is at these coordinates 66°59′S 60°50′W (more options there).

The significance of this is that once the ice beside the rise disintegrates, the whole Larsen C shelf follows, and if you zoom out enough the map you'll notice some glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula (the whiter ice), that will soon flow into the ocean adding 20,000 cubic kilometres of water an rising sea level some 6 centimetres in the course of 15 to 40 years (to add to other reasons for sea level rise, which is now thermosteric in a half). This process is suspected to be unstoppable now. Everything we are doing now -some more than others- is to prevent or strongly slow down worse events to happen in 40 or more years time, should we turn a blind eye to pollution by GHGs.
 
aleCcowaN said:
Now Google maps includes some current imagery that allow you to see the crack in the context of the Bawden Ice Rise. Try this link (the icon locates the rise). There are problems with the zoom level of different areas, but you can play with it and get the notion of what's going on there (maybe Google Earth allows a more precise look: the rise is at these coordinates 66°59′S 60°50′W (more options there).
Click to expand...

I feel sympathy pains for the Google image stitching algorithms that have to deal with that constantly shifting mess.
 
where we are at

Record-breaking climate change pushes world into ‘uncharted territory’
Earth is a planet in upheaval, say scientists, as the World Meteorological Organisation publishes analysis of recent heat highs and ice lows
Click to expand...
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...king-climate-change-world-uncharted-territory

ain't so good

snip
2016 saw the hottest global average among thermometer measurements stretching back to 1880. But scientific research indicates the world was last this warm about 115,000 years ago and that the planet has not experienced such high levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for 4m years.
Click to expand...
 
aleCcowaN said:
Now Google maps includes some current imagery that allow you to see the crack in the context of the Bawden Ice Rise. Try this link (the icon locates the rise).
Click to expand...

Out of curiosity.

If you head down about 5-10 miles, there's an image of several parallel lines running left of the big crack/gap (I would use NSEW, but I have no idea where exactly in the south we're looking). Are those associated with it somehow, do you know?

ETA: Actually, more like 20 miles...

E Again: Hmm...using the measuring thingy, let's go for 40 miles! I'm crap at guessing distances!
:)
 
Last edited:
Tolls said:
Out of curiosity.

If you head down about 5-10 miles, there's an image of several parallel lines running left of the big crack/gap (I would use NSEW, but I have no idea where exactly in the south we're looking). Are those associated with it somehow, do you know?

ETA: Actually, more like 20 miles...

E Again: Hmm...using the measuring thingy, let's go for 40 miles! I'm crap at guessing distances!
:)
Click to expand...

This image from Sentinel taken on February 15th lets see the crack and those lines clearly (thin crack on the left, lines grouped on the right):

http://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentin...tion=replace/atmFilter=/evalscript=/showImage

I'm not sure if those lines are what they call lineations, I'd rather say they're perpendicular to what I understand a lineation is. The fact is that the ice has flown with different speeds and soft ice has thinned and stretched to keep the integrity of the shelf despite the different flow speeds. This thinning ice subsides and becomes protected from transversal winds, but not from those running along the lines, what makes snow accumulation inside minimal and causes those changes of thickness and colour what in turn gives that trenchy or crevassy appearance which is more of an optical illusion than a reality.

Now the crack is 11 miles from open sea.
 
Jules Galen said:
To say the least, now is the time to upgrade your Air Conditioner.

Also, the profession of Air Conditioning Installer and Repairman should be quite lucrative over the next few decades.
Click to expand...

You see! You see! At last an opportunity for you to have a decent profession. Who would've thought that from Global Warming but, you know the old adage, it's an ill wind that blows nobody any good.
 
Red Baron Farms said:
Really annoying news:
I am an Arctic researcher. Donald Trump is deleting my citations
Victoria Herrmann
Click to expand...

It's all disappearing. Take a look at the links in
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/wesley/cdas_data.html
and even follow the link to the home page and try again to access all the databases. It's all broken. There's no any nomadN server sharing data. Most of the scripts I wrote to pull daily data were rendered useless.

To be fair, it comes from some 18 months ago, when "attacks" on servers made many services to go off-line. Today I'm sure it's not because of the will of the new administration :rolleyes: but the high costs of redesigning systems to stand web attacks. That money is better invested reactivating coal mines.

Never mind. That's what happens in Third World countries with fascist populisms wearing any available disguise (socialist, conservative, indigenist, nationalist) and that's exactly what they have over there. Enjoy!
 
2040s arriving early..... :rolleyes:

Paris 1.5°C target may be smashed by 2026
A change to a positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation could see global warming accelerate rapidly
Date:
May 8, 2017
Source:
University of New South Wales
Summary:
What appears to be a recent change to a positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is likely to accelerate global warming, breaking through the agreed Paris target of 1.5°C by as early as 2026.
Click to expand...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/05/170508184929.htm

but not to worry ...it's all been predicted and accounted for ....nothing to see here...
 
pattern:

some developments that might occur might be able to boost global warming according to people who is indeed knowledgeable on specialized aspects of the subject, using models/extrapolations/Markov chains/long etcetera [delete as applicable] and that would make something happen some time sooner than expected.

The context:

Global warming goes on at the same pace (+1.4°C/century -plus minus 0.2°C)

In other news:

Larsen C crack forked about 10 days ago. It'll probably break sooner but the Bowden Ice Rise will remain safe, which is good news among the bad news.

Niño3.4 have remained above 0°C during the last 110 days with the exception of a few hours. During the last 30 days I eyeballed a value of +0.5°C. BOM have declared El Niño watch a few weeks ago. Coastal El Niño have almost disappeared, for Andean America relief.

In spite of all this, SST anomalies have been dropping during the last two weeks and May doesn't look like it'll be near to 2015's record breaking 0.38°C above normals (+0.75°C compared to the average for the 20th century).
 
aleCcowaN said:
pattern:

some developments that might occur might be able to boost global warming according to people who is indeed knowledgeable on specialized aspects of the subject, using models/extrapolations/Markov chains/long etcetera [delete as applicable] and that would make something happen some time sooner than expected.

The context:

Global warming goes on at the same pace (+1.4°C/century -plus minus 0.2°C)
Click to expand...
Yes, denialists are always very keen to make sure that in any cycle (ENSO, IPO, etc) that temperature rise over a period is always measured from the peak of that cycle (eg the 1998 El Nino).

Others seem equally keen to measure to the peak of such cycles, rather than look at the underlying trend. It's the other side of the denialist coin. It's just as unreasonable, but is it helpful? It produces scarier dates/numbers that might spur action, but I'm wary that such expedient disdain for accuracy comes at the cost of credibility.
 
mother Gaia responds in interesting ways to our global experiment ....
:rolleyes:
Increased leaf abundance is a double-edged sword
Date:
May 25, 2017
Source:
American Association for the Advancement of Science
Summary:
A new global assessment reveals that increases in leaf abundance are causing boreal areas to warm and arid regions to cool. The results suggest that recent changes in global vegetation have had impacts on local climates that should be considered in the design of local mitigation and adaptation plans.
Share:

A new global assessment reveals that increases in leaf abundance are causing boreal areas to warm and arid regions to cool. The results suggest that recent changes in global vegetation have had impacts on local climates that should be considered in the design of local mitigation and adaptation plans.

A substantial portion of the planet is greening in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, nitrogen deposition, global warming and land use change. The increase in leafy green coverage, or leaf area index (LAI), will hold important implications for climate change feedback loops, yet quantifying these impacts on a global scale can be challenging. Here, Giovanni Forzieri and colleagues analyzed satellite data of global LAI coverage between 1982 and 2011.

Their results varied depending on the local biome, where increased LAI in boreal regions caused a reduction in surface albedo (reflection of sunlight), and thus resulted in a warming effect; in contrast, increased LAI in arid regions caused an increase in transpiration, and thus drove a cooling effect.

What's more, the authors found that these relationships between LAI and surface biophysics were amplified up to five times under extreme warm-dry and cold-wet years.

They estimate that, across about 60% of the global vegetated area, greening has buffered warming by about 14%; for the remaining areas, which mostly include boreal zones, LAI trends have amplified the raise in air temperatures, leading to an additional warming of about 10%.
Click to expand...

tough wrinkle for the modellers...:boggled:
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom