Geomagnetic Storm to Hit Earth Tomorrow

Should be an awesome aurora, even visible in our neck of the woods. Hopefully it's clear. I also want to check out the huge sunspots that are the source of the emission.
 
Be sure to check out the RaptureReady paranoia, I'm sure this is another one of those very vague ambigious but nonetheless SIGN FROM ABOVE OF THE IMPENDING RAPTURE!!!!!

If I see auroras, I'll take pictures. :)
 
EvilYeti said:
Watch out for the El Nino to follow shortly thereafter.

It'll be a doozy! :D

There's just been an El Nino (slowly coming to an end). No computer model has ever successfully predicted an El Nino event.
 
Diamond said:

There's just been an El Nino (slowly coming to an end). No computer model has ever successfully predicted an El Nino event.

According to Mr. Theodor Landscheidt, solar activity "controls" El Nino.

You might want to read his paper, "Solar Activity Controls El Niño and La Niña ". According to him it should fire right back up again.

Here is the NOAA prediction, based on those those silly computer models. Let's see whose right this time?

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
October 9, 2003
Equatorial surface and subsurface temperatures were slightly warmer than average throughout most of the Pacific during September (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2, respectively). Equatorial SST anomalies greater than +0.5°C (~1°F) persisted in the region west of the date line during September, and developed over most of the region between the date line and 120°W during the last half of the month (Fig. 3). This anomalous warming east of the date line was associated with a brief weakening of the easterlies that occurred during 19-25 September (Fig. 4). Generally, atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific have been near average in recent months, with no significant trends that would support large-scale anomalous warming or cooling of SSTs in that region. Thus, slightly warmer-than-average conditions are likely to persist for the next several months.

A majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts indicate near neutral conditions (Niño 3.4 SST anomalies between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) for the remainder of 2003 and early 2004. However, over the past few months there has been a trend in the suite of forecasts towards somewhat warmer conditions, consistent with observations. Thus, it is likely that slightly warmer-than-average conditions will persist in the equatorial Pacific through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2003-04.

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It is a forecast.
It is a weather forecast.
It is a weather forecast in space.
It is a weather forecast in space, predicting something from 90million+ miles away affecting Earth.
:)

My laymen's guess: I doubt that even if the event happens that it will affect Earth in a noticable way.
 
EvilYeti said:


According to Mr. Theodor Landscheidt, solar activity "controls" El Nino.

You might want to read his paper, "Solar Activity Controls El Niño and La Niña ". According to him it should fire right back up again.


You might want to undertake a course in English comprehension. I did not mention Theodor Landscheidt, I commented that no computer model has ever predicted an El Nino event.

We can add this to the YetiScience list:

1. Water vapour is not a gas and is anyway irrelevant but we should try to control "anthropogenic" water evaporation (the oceans don't evaporate very much by comparison with my coffee cup).
2. Carbon dioxide comprises 1% of the Earth's Atmosphere whatever the measurements from Moana Loa may say.
3. Without carbon dioxide temperatures on Earth would be 60 degrees lower.
4. You can't work out how much carbon dioxide contributes to the Greenhouse effect without leaving the Earth and finding a similar planet which has a pure carbon dioxide atmosphere (as long as its not Mars).
5. Dr Theodor Landschedit is an astrologer even when he says he is not, has predicted Planet X and possibly the existence of the Loch Ness Monster, got "lucky" predicting the latest El Nino from four years ago, and uses the Golden Mean which means he's either using KAM theory or he's a numerologist.
6. Carbon dioxide warms the atmosphere despite never being shown to have warmed the atmosphere before in any ice core record.
7. Anyone who contradicts what the Yeti says is "using the tactics of Holocaust deniers"
8. Anyone well qualified to contradict what the Yeti says is paid off by the fossil fuel industry to lie before Congress.
9. Climate science is decided by the United Nations rather than scientists.
10. No computer model has ever predicted an El Nino but here's some from NOAA after the fact....
11. Any mistakes the Yeti clearly makes on clear issues of science are typos and the Yeti is free to make up facts as he sees fit.
12 John Daly's site is all lies, saving the Yeti plenty of time not explaining why Daly's sources of data are the same as everyone else's, why scientists keep writing articles, and why nearly a hundred accredited climatologists signed a declaration which backs up Daly's thesis.
 
Diamond said:

No computer model has ever successfully predicted an El Nino event.
THE FIRST EL NINO OBSERVED AND FORECASTED FROM START TO FINISH: WHAT WAS LEARNED?


For the first time in history, scientists around the world were able to observe a major climate event from the earliest stages of development through its decline. These observations have brought unprecedented insight into El Nino; years of research data to analyze and the opportunity to issue valuable predictions.


The 1997-1998 El Nino "event of the century" was the best monitored and the first ever predicted El Nino on record, according NASA and NOAA scientists, who presented joint papers at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco today.


Dr. Antonio Busalacchi, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center scientist, reported that "the 1997-1998 El Nino will be the first time a major El Nino event and subsequent La Nina will have been observed globally from start to finish." Following the last strong El Nino in 1982-1983, the international science community deployed an extensive surface observing system in the tropical Pacific Ocean in support of monitoring and predicting El Nino.


In addition, within the past 10 years, a series of oceans and atmospheric remote sensing satellites have been launched that supplement and enhance the observations being taken at the surface, and at depth, of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These global observations have provided unprecedented information on sea surface temperature, sea surface topography, sea surface winds, ocean color and precipitation.


"The observations of the climate system, combined with sophisticated ocean- atmosphere prediction models, and the science communities increased understanding of the atmospheric response, led to an incredibly bold forecast of El Nino nearly six months prior to the onset of the major impacts," and Dr. Ants Leetmaa, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientist. "Working with the emergency management community and other users we were able to start applying the forecasts for practical use and widespread education about climate variability. With this event, we were light years ahead of the last major El Nino."


Leetmaa added that NOAA learned the impacts if El Nino are typically communicated through changes in the number and intensity of storms in areas that make up the midlatitudes, such as the United States. As a result, he said, the El Nino phenomenon sets the stage for more extreme weather events.


NOAA's Climate Prediction Center monitors, analyzes and predicts climate events for the entire nation -- from weeks to seasons. NOAA operates the network of data buoys and satellites that provide vital information about the ocean and initiates research projects to improve future climate forecasts.


Beyond the impacts on U.S. and global weather patterns, the observation system also provided incredible insight on the impact of El Nino on marine life. The observations of the marine environment for the first time have shown how the physical climate system during El Nino obliterated the lowest levels of the marine ecosystem and subsequent impacts at higher levels in the food chain, added Busalacchi.


Among the lessons learned to date from the 1997-1998 event have been the need for the global observations in addition to just those in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the need for more regionally specific forecast tools, added Leetmaa and Busalacchi.


The experience of the 1997-1998 El Nino has illustrated the global scale of the El Nino phenomenon and its impacts. It has demonstrated that today's El Nino monitoring system, coupled with ocean-atmosphere models, and scientific understanding are capable of giving three to nine month advance warning of significant shifts in global precipitation and temperature patterns. It has also demonstrated the need to refine such forecasts to regional scales and where additional observations are needed.
 
EvilYeti posted nothing at all. The prediction of the El Nino of 1997-98 was made some six months prior to the onset, when all the conditions were already there in the measurements taken of tropical Pacific ocean temperature and atmospheric pressure. The same thing was done in April/May 2002 and just as "predictive". It was no use at all for farmers in Australia who need to know whether to prepare for drought or not.

Nothing in what he quoted indicates the time between prediction and actuality, nor the method used, nor when the prediction was made.

For all the criticism, Landscheidt predicted the El Nino of 2002-2003 from four years out. We still haven't heard if EY thinks this prediction was based on astrology/numerology and whether Dr Landscheidt should apply for the JREF $1million prize.
 
Diamond said:

For all the criticism, Landscheidt predicted the El Nino of 2002-2003 from four years out. We still haven't heard if EY thinks this prediction was based on astrology/numerology and whether Dr Landscheidt should apply for the JREF $1million prize.

Still no comment from Mr. Diamond on whether "predictions" with a +/- 6 month margin of error mean anything. Especially considering El Nino's occur on a 2-7 year cycle. Or that he did it one time and has offered no further predictions. If his "predicitions" are so valuable, why hasn't he made another? Oh yeah, he's already "proved" his validity. No need to run anymore tests. After all, Kepler did horoscopes.

I'm all in favor of Landscheidt applying for the million dollar prize. I encourage him to do so. I've said many times that his prediction is based on astrology/numerology. Anyone can read Landscheidts books on the same and see he uses the same methodolgy to make other loony predictions. No different than his analysis of geocentric planetary nodes causing the Challenger disaster.
A special feature of geocentric nodes is that they indicate crucial days in the course of the year. I mentioned earlier that the heliocentric nodes progress very slowly. Consequently, the geocentric nodes, linked as they are to the Earth’s course around the Sun, reach nearly the same position a year or even some years later. If there is a special configuration formed with radix positions, it will recur about the same calendar date. This is especially true for the birthday. So there is more to the birthday than the Solar Return. If you know the trend released by special nodal transits, you can make plans for the year. I myself make good use of the alignment of Mercury’s node, Jupiter’s node and Venus’ node in mid-January and July to get ahead in my work. Yet there are also negative examples: on January 28, 1986 seven U.S. astronauts were killed when the space shuttle Challenger exploded on take-off at Cape Canaveral. On January 27, 1967 a similar accident had occurred that killed three astronauts. In both of these cases Mars’ north node, Uranus’ north node and the Sun’s north node formed a triple conjunction that was related to critical configurations in the respective charts.
Source:
Theory & Practice of Geocentric Planetary Nodes
 
EvilYeti said:


Still no comment from Mr. Diamond on whether "predictions" with a +/- 6 month margin of error mean anything. Especially considering El Nino's occur on a 2-7 year cycle.


Yes. He could be lucky with his prediction, which is why more predictions are required. However, it has already been established that the North Atlantic Oscillation is correlated with the solar cycle, so it would not be a big surprise if the ENSO cycle was similarly correlated.

Or that he did it one time and has offered no further predictions.

He has made lots of predictions which are published well in advance.

If his "predicitions" are so valuable, why hasn't he made another? Oh yeah, he's already "proved" his validity. No need to run anymore tests. After all, Kepler did horoscopes.

Another irrelevant aside from our pseudoscientific troll.

I'm all in favor of Landscheidt applying for the million dollar prize. I encourage him to do so. I've said many times that his prediction is based on astrology/numerology.

Except that Randi has to offer the prize as a challenge. I doubt very much that Randi would do so, since Landscheidt's work is based on KAM theory, does not claim that they come from a paranormal activity or any "superpower"and also would take many years for a definitive test to be run. Since Dr Landscheidt denies using astrology for his predictions it would seem that he would not likely enter for a Prize to prove something he does not claim.

On the other hand, volunteering someone else's prize is very brave....not.

Anyone can read Landscheidts books on the same and see he uses the same methodolgy to make other loony predictions. No different than his analysis of geocentric planetary nodes causing the Challenger disaster.

Except of course, you haven't read any of them. Despite that you feel free to ridicule what you think they contain. Argument from ignorance as well as ad hominem are your only real tools of choice.



As I wrote, I have no idea whether Landscheidt wrote this or not or even if this is the same Theodor Landscheidt. The one I wrote to, denied writing anything in defence of astrology.

In sum, let me quote what Dr Landcheidt actually said


Objective argument? Entirely alien concepts in YetiScience....
 
Diamond said:

Yes. He could be lucky with his prediction, which is why more predictions are required. However, it has already been established that the North Atlantic Oscillation is correlated with the solar cycle, so it would not be a big surprise if the ENSO cycle was similarly correlated.

Wrong. No one has correlated it besides Landscheidt, using the same junk science methods he uses in all his other junk science works. Which is why no one is gonna publish this crap except your butt-buddy John Daly.

He has made lots of predictions which are published well in advance.

Oh yeah, I forgot. He also forgot to publish them in print where they could be verified. But he made them, oh yes he did. He said so. He must be right, because Kepler did horoscopes.

Another irrelevant aside from our pseudoscientific troll.

I admit I'm a pseudoscientific troll, as long as science is defined as astrology and PlanetX research.

Except that Randi has to offer the prize as a challenge.

Jesus Christ you are ignorant. Have you even READ the Randi challenge?
One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge
It has to be APPLIED for! Randi has already offered the prize as a challenge. Its up to pseudoscience retards like yourself to take him up on it. Why don't you? Oh yeah, you are a coward as well as a liar. Buk-CAGH!:D

I doubt very much that Randi would do so, since Landscheidt's work is based on KAM theory, does not claim that they come from a paranormal activity or any "superpower"and also would take many years for a definitive test to be run.

Oh my yes, the world expert on KAM theory lectures us yet again. Its based on KAM theory cause he says it is. Really. Diamond says so too. Thats scientific proof. It is. Really. Becuase he says so.

Since Dr Landscheidt denies using astrology for his predictions it would seem that he would not likely enter for a Prize to prove something he does not claim.

Landscheidt is a liar and a fraud. He denies authoring his own publications.

On the other hand, volunteering someone else's prize is very brave....not.

I offered my own challenge and you chickened out as well. Seems to be a pattern, one likely reflected in you pathetic real life.

Except of course, you haven't read any of them. Despite that you feel free to ridicule what you think they contain. Argument from ignorance as well as ad hominem are your only real tools of choice.

I've read enough to know its astrology and it's ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊. You've read nothing, not even the original El Nino paper. Every time you open your fat mouth you commit an argument from ignorance.
Everytime you profane this forum with your digital excrement you launch an ad hominem.

As I wrote, I have no idea whether Landscheidt wrote this or not or even if this is the same Theodor Landscheidt. The one I wrote to, denied writing anything in defence of astrology.

What do you expect from a woowoo? You and he are the same, do you tell the truth when you are cornered? No. Of course not. You are are two junk science frauds in a pod.

In sum, let me quote what Dr Landcheidt actually said

He lies. Anyone can look up his publications in "Considerations" magazine.

Objective argument? Entirely alien concepts in YetiScience....

Its spelled "science". What you do is spelled "pseudoscience". Its pretty simple to understand, really.

Unless you are retarded, that is. :rolleyes:
 
EvilYeti said:
Yes. He could be lucky with his prediction, which is why more predictions are required. However, it has already been established that the North Atlantic Oscillation is correlated with the solar cycle, so it would not be a big surprise if the ENSO cycle was similarly correlated.

Wrong. No one has correlated it besides Landscheidt, using the same junk science methods he uses in all his other junk science works. Which is why no one is gonna publish this crap except your butt-buddy John Daly.

Unfortunately the person saying this claims that water vapour is not a gas. This impresses me.

He has made lots of predictions which are published well in advance.

Oh yeah, I forgot. He also forgot to publish them in print where they could be verified. But he made them, oh yes he did. He said so. He must be right, because Kepler did horoscopes.

Alas he published them well in advance. Can't take losing very well can you?

Another irrelevant aside from our pseudoscientific troll.

I admit I'm a pseudoscientific troll,

Thank you. I shall quote that frequently.

as long as science is defined as astrology and PlanetX research.

Unfortunately since Landscheidt doesn't use astrology and hasn't claimed to have discovered Planet X we can file this in the YetiScience list.

13. Any theory of climate that EY can't understand is astrological or numerological in nature. This means most chaotic systems including climate are beyond his puny brain.

Except that Randi has to offer the prize as a challenge.

Jesus Christ you are ignorant. Have you even READ the Randi challenge?
One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge
It has to be APPLIED for! Randi has already offered the prize as a challenge. Its up to pseudoscience retards like yourself to take him up on it. Why don't you? Oh yeah, you are a coward as well as a liar. Buk-CAGH!

As I point out since Landscheidt does not claim that astrology works, or uses astrology to predict climatic phenomena, it is unlikely that Randi would accept the challenge or that Landscheidt would apply since he doesn't claim superpowers.

In any case your challenge was to the moderators, not to me. There would be nothing that would please an abusive troll like you than to get both yourself and your opponents thrown off the board.

I doubt very much that Randi would do so, since Landscheidt's work is based on KAM theory, does not claim that they come from a paranormal activity or any "superpower"and also would take many years for a definitive test to be run.

Oh my yes, the world expert on KAM theory lectures us yet again. Its based on KAM theory cause he says it is. Really. Diamond says so too. Thats scientific proof. It is. Really. Becuase he says so.

I claim no authroity on KAM theory. But if you'd like to explain the YetiScience explanation on why KAM theory is false because it uses the Golden Mean, or why this is related to astrology, please do let us know. Since astrology uses (or rather abuses) concepts from mathematics and physics (especially quantum physics and relativity) perhaps we should be suspicious of them as well?

Since Dr Landscheidt denies using astrology for his predictions it would seem that he would not likely enter for a Prize to prove something he does not claim.

Landscheidt is a liar and a fraud. He denies authoring his own publications.

Such brave words from a troll on a message board.

On the other hand, volunteering someone else's prize is very brave....not.

I offered my own challenge and you chickened out as well. Seems to be a pattern, one likely reflected in you pathetic real life.

Why should I accept a challenge that you would not accept losing? In the same spirit: Go jump off a 500m cliff. If you survive, Randi will pay you $1million

Except of course, you haven't read any of them. Despite that you feel free to ridicule what you think they contain. Argument from ignorance as well as ad hominem are your only real tools of choice.

I've read enough to know its astrology and it's ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊◊. You've read nothing, not even the original El Nino paper. Every time you open your fat mouth you commit an argument from ignorance.
Everytime you profane this forum with your digital excrement you launch an ad hominem.

You've accused me of not reading papers you've not read yourself, and of knowing what the subjects of books are without reading them either. This is clearly a paranormal power. Have you applied for the $1million prize yet?

As I wrote, I have no idea whether Landscheidt wrote this or not or even if this is the same Theodor Landscheidt. The one I wrote to, denied writing anything in defence of astrology.

What do you expect from a woowoo? You and he are the same, do you tell the truth when you are cornered? No. Of course not. You are are two junk science frauds in a pod.

You quote an astrology website and its the truth and I quote from the man himself and its a lie? Well that's convincing.

Have you any more hallucinations that you know what you're talking about? I would suggest to the nurse to triple the dose.

In sum, let me quote what Dr Landcheidt actually said

He lies. Anyone can look up his publications in "Considerations" magazine.

The well known source of astrological truth? I find the truth there?

Objective argument? Entirely alien concepts in YetiScience....

Its spelled "science". What you do is spelled "pseudoscience". Its pretty simple to understand, really.

Unless you are retarded, that is. :rolleyes:

Ah yes. YetiScience the future of superstition.
 
T'ai Chi said:
It is a forecast.
It is a weather forecast.
It is a weather forecast in space.
It is a weather forecast in space, predicting something from 90million+ miles away affecting Earth.
:)

My laymen's guess: I doubt that even if the event happens that it will affect Earth in a noticable way.

Will we never plumb the full depths of T'ai's ignorance? This is going to be rich.
 
T'ai Chi said:
It is a forecast.
It is a weather forecast.
It is a weather forecast in space.
It is a weather forecast in space, predicting something from 90million+ miles away affecting Earth.
:)

My laymen's guess: I doubt that even if the event happens that it will affect Earth in a noticable way.

Tr'oll Chi / whodini / Sherlock Holmes:

Have you figured out your errors yet? Hint: they don't all have to do with the fact that it has happened, despite your doubt.
 

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