Frodo Throws Ring 'Near' Mount Doom

[The skepTick]

Does it really matter if Frodo threw the One Ring 'near' Mount Doom vs. 'into' Mount Doom?

On Dec. 16, Nikki, Psychic to the Stars, predicted an air crash 'near' the Hudson River. On January 15, US Airways Flight 1549 crash-landed 'into' the Hudson River, and as is the wont of all bad psychics, Nikki claims a hit: Psychic Nikki Predicts Jet into Hudson River.

Note that Nikki doesn't define what 'near' means nor does she say when it would happen, so time and space are irrelevant when it comes to ascribing success to a prediction. Rather, what matters most is if 'plane crash' and 'Hudson River' appear together in the media in the same context. It doesn't matter that the Hudson is 507 km long. Nor does it matter if she got her prediction wrong because it would end up on the garbage heap of her hundreds (thousands?) of other failed predictions (e.g. 2005: plane crashes into Egyptian pyramids). But she is quick to latch onto a coincidental event and only then will the media take note.

My take on this here.

(p.s. - Nikki also predicted in 2005 and 2008 that Paul Newman should watch his health, and now claims a hit on having predicted his passing)

 

[Delvo]

What fraction of air crashes happen at or "near" airports, and how many airports are "near" that river?

 

[cambion]

Ha ha ha. Those predictions were all either incredibly vague (of course) or complete "duhs" (yeah, I'm using that as a noun for lack of a better term). Old pacemaker Cheney might need to watch his health? More riots in Greece? FLOODING IN VENICE!? You don't say!



As for the Hudson crash prediction, it was a miss, but I can still see how people would find it eerie. Considering how many predictions these people make, it would probably be unlikely that none of them ever came true - or almost kindasorta true.

 

[Hitch]

I think that's page 3 of "How To Build a Reputation as a Psychic." Predict airline mishaps in the indefinite future near landmarks adjacent to major airports. Eventually you'll get a few hits. Count on people not paying attention to the misses.