Electoral Vote: Kerry 284, Bush 247

How many states are within the polling margin of error? This race is going to be too close to predict ahead of time.
 
Michael Redman is right, that margin of error makes the outcome hard to predict.

And then there is the problem of voting irregularities. Florida was "barely Gore" in 2000, and there seems to be clear evidence that the majority of Floridians intended to vote for Gore. Nevertheless, the state went to Bush. This outcome was due to a number of factors, some of which have not been corrected or adequately addressed in the intervening four years.
 
Agree:
Brown said:
Michael Redman is right, that margin of error makes the outcome hard to predict.

And then there is the problem of voting irregularities. Florida was "barely Gore" in 2000, and there seems to be clear evidence that the majority of Floridians intended to vote for Gore. Nevertheless, the state went to Bush. This outcome was due to a number of factors, some of which have not been corrected or adequately addressed in the intervening four years.
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However, it is not good for the sitting President when there is an almost tie, since it is documented that the undecids go massively for the challenger come Election Day.

Also, it is documented that most polls (like Gallup, Strategic Vision) are Republican biased.
Cell phones used by young people are not contacted.

It is however telling how handicapped is the American culture compared to Europe, considering that Bush -after ruining the US economy and the US military- still has a chance to win.

As for fraud, it is true that there are dubious machines without paper trail in Florida again (home of Bush's half brother, governor Bush -there is an inflation in the US with crooked Bushes!-), but I read that the US Elections will be internationally monitored unlike the cheating of 2000.
 
Ion said:
...

It is however telling how handicapped is the American culture compared to Europe, considering that Bush -after ruining the US economy and the US military- still has a chance to win.
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I agree with you about the disaster of Bush's presidency, but you've got to be kidding if you think incompetent leaders in Europe are punished at the polls.
... Florida again (home of Bush's half brother, governor Bush ...
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Do you know something the rest of the world doesn't? Does Jeb Bush have a different mother? Different father?
 
In the 2000 election there were 16000 votes disallowed in Florida, mistakenly because of a corrupt "felon's " list and administrative irregularities. The votes were 3 to 1 Democratic to Republican. This has been acknowledged at the state level . but we've been promised that "They'll do better this time around"
The list resurfaced again this year and Jeb was gonna use it again but was warned by all sides not to. The issue became so public he had no choice but to drop the matter. This week one county was showing off their brand spankin new voting machines to demonstrate the safety of the system even tho it's paperless.....the system crashed.

Stories ( on the local news and radio) are starting to surface about Jeb's Praetorian guard ( Florida Department of Law enforcement) FDLE going to peoples houses and questioning them about their registration information. Voter intimidation?? what intimidation...we don need no steenking intimidation.

It's Deja Vu' all over again.


Edit : Were even having trouble with the early voting scheme on the first day!
 
hgc said:
I agree with you about the disaster of Bush's presidency, but you've got to be kidding if you think incompetent leaders in Europe are punished at the polls.
...
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A senile and deluded religious leader presiding over a high-technology country, supported by a gullible religious herd of people, that's not how the European education is.

I know, because I come from Europe.
hgc said:

...
Do you know something the rest of the world doesn't? Does Jeb Bush have a different mother? Different father?
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That's what I understood from The San Diego Union Tribune, recently.

But this point is incosequential.
 
hgc said:
Do you know something the rest of the world doesn't? Does Jeb Bush have a different mother? Different father?
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That stuck me as odd also.

From Barbara Bush's Bio...

George graduated from Yale, and they set out for Texas to start their lives together. Six children were born to them: George, Robin, Jeb, Neil, Marvin, and Dorothy.
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So I guess it is an implication that Barbara got something on the side. I can't imagine who would be willing to do that.

Wait, I'll drink a few more beers and get back to you.
 
Kids speak:

in a poll done by the Nickelodeon Channel, 400,000 kids give Kerry 57% to Bush's 43% in the election:

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/20/campaign.kids.reut/index.html

Most kids are not influenced by parents to be into oil corruption, borrowing to kill Iraqis instead of investing capital in science and technology, and flag waving while chasing greedy money, like the adults of Bush's kind are.

Kerry, take this kids' trust, win and correct the US!
 
'The American Conservative' endorses Kerry

'The American Conservative' magazine endorses Kerry, here:

http://www.amconmag.com/2004_11_08/cover1.html

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Kerry's the One

By Scott McConnell

There is little in John Kerry’s persona or platform that appeals to conservatives. The flip-flopper charge—the centerpiece of the Republican campaign against Kerry—seems overdone, as Kerry’s contrasting votes are the sort of baggage any senator of long service is likely to pick up. (Bob Dole could tell you all about it.) But Kerry is plainly a conventional liberal and no candidate for a future edition of Profiles in Courage. In my view, he will always deserve censure for his vote in favor of the Iraq War in 2002.

But this election is not about John Kerry. If he were to win, his dearth of charisma would likely ensure him a single term. He would face challenges from within his own party and a thwarting of his most expensive initiatives by a Republican Congress. Much of his presidency would be absorbed by trying to clean up the mess left to him in Iraq. He would be constrained by the swollen deficits and a ripe target for the next Republican nominee.

It is, instead, an election about the presidency of George W. Bush. To the surprise of virtually everyone, Bush has turned into an important president, and in many ways the most radical America has had since the 19th century. Because he is the leader of America’s conservative party, he has become the Left’s perfect foil—its dream candidate. The libertarian writer Lew Rockwell has mischievously noted parallels between Bush and Russia’s last tsar, Nicholas II: both gained office as a result of family connections, both initiated an unnecessary war that shattered their countries’ budgets. Lenin needed the calamitous reign of Nicholas II to create an opening for the Bolsheviks.

Bush has behaved like a caricature of what a right-wing president is supposed to be, and his continuation in office will discredit any sort of conservatism for generations. The launching of an invasion against a country that posed no threat to the U.S., the doling out of war profits and concessions to politically favored corporations, the financing of the war by ballooning the deficit to be passed on to the nation’s children, the ceaseless drive to cut taxes for those outside the middle class and working poor: it is as if Bush sought to resurrect every false 1960s-era left-wing cliché about predatory imperialism and turn it into administration policy. Add to this his nation-breaking immigration proposal—Bush has laid out a mad scheme to import immigrants to fill any job where the wage is so low that an American can’t be found to do it—and you have a presidency that combines imperialist Right and open-borders Left in a uniquely noxious cocktail.

During the campaign, few have paid attention to how much the Bush presidency has degraded the image of the United States in the world. Of course there has always been “anti-Americanism.” After the Second World War many European intellectuals argued for a “Third Way” between American-style capitalism and Soviet communism, and a generation later Europe’s radicals embraced every ragged “anti-imperialist” cause that came along. In South America, defiance of “the Yanqui” always draws a crowd. But Bush has somehow managed to take all these sentiments and turbo-charge them. In Europe and indeed all over the world, he has made the United States despised by people who used to be its friends, by businessmen and the middle classes, by moderate and sensible liberals. Never before have democratic foreign governments needed to demonstrate disdain for Washington to their own electorates in order to survive in office. The poll numbers are shocking. In countries like Norway, Germany, France, and Spain, Bush is liked by about seven percent of the populace. In Egypt, recipient of huge piles of American aid in the past two decades, some 98 percent have an unfavorable view of the United States. It’s the same throughout the Middle East.

Bush has accomplished this by giving the U.S. a novel foreign-policy doctrine under which it arrogates to itself the right to invade any country it wants if it feels threatened. It is an American version of the Brezhnev Doctrine, but the latter was at least confined to Eastern Europe. If the analogy seems extreme, what is an appropriate comparison when a country manufactures falsehoods about a foreign government, disseminates them widely, and invades the country on the basis of those falsehoods? It is not an action that any American president has ever taken before. It is not something that “good” countries do. It is the main reason that people all over the world who used to consider the United States a reliable and necessary bulwark of world stability now see us as a menace to their own peace and security.

These sentiments mean that as long as Bush is president, we have no real allies in the world, no friends to help us dig out from the Iraq quagmire. More tragically, they mean that if terrorists succeed in striking at the United States in another 9/11-type attack, many in the world will not only think of the American victims but also of the thousands and thousands of Iraqi civilians killed and maimed by American armed forces. The hatred Bush has generated has helped immeasurably those trying to recruit anti-American terrorists—indeed his policies are the gift to terrorism that keeps on giving, as the sons and brothers of slain Iraqis think how they may eventually take their own revenge. Only the seriously deluded could fail to see that a policy so central to America’s survival as a free country as getting hold of loose nuclear materials and controlling nuclear proliferation requires the willingness of foreign countries to provide full, 100 percent co-operation. Making yourself into the world’s most hated country is not an obvious way to secure that help.

I’ve heard people who have known George W. Bush for decades and served prominently in his father’s administration say that he could not possibly have conceived of the doctrine of pre-emptive war by himself, that he was essentially taken for a ride by people with a pre-existing agenda to overturn Saddam Hussein. Bush’s public performances plainly show him to be a man who has never read or thought much about foreign policy. So the inevitable questions are: who makes the key foreign-policy decisions in the Bush presidency, who controls the information flow to the president, how are various options are presented?

The record, from published administration memoirs and in-depth reporting, is one of an administration with a very small group of six or eight real decision-makers, who were set on war from the beginning and who took great pains to shut out arguments from professionals in the CIA and State Department and the U.S. armed forces that contradicted their rosy scenarios about easy victory. Much has been written about the neoconservative hand guiding the Bush presidency—and it is peculiar that one who was fired from the National Security Council in the Reagan administration for suspicion of passing classified material to the Israeli embassy and another who has written position papers for an Israeli Likud Party leader have become key players in the making of American foreign policy.

But neoconservatism now encompasses much more than Israel-obsessed intellectuals and policy insiders. The Bush foreign policy also surfs on deep currents within the Christian Right, some of which see unqualified support of Israel as part of a godly plan to bring about Armageddon and the future kingdom of Christ. These two strands of Jewish and Christian extremism build on one another in the Bush presidency—and President Bush has given not the slightest indication he would restrain either in a second term. With Colin Powell’s departure from the State Department looming, Bush is more than ever the “neoconian candidate.” The only way Americans will have a presidency in which neoconservatives and the Christian Armageddon set are not holding the reins of power is if Kerry is elected.

If Kerry wins, this magazine will be in opposition from Inauguration Day forward. But the most important battles will take place within the Republican Party and the conservative movement. A Bush defeat will ignite a huge soul-searching within the rank-and-file of Republicandom: a quest to find out how and where the Bush presidency went wrong. And it is then that more traditional conservatives will have an audience to argue for a conservatism informed by the lessons of history, based in prudence and a sense of continuity with the American past—and to make that case without a powerful White House pulling in the opposite direction.

George W. Bush has come to embody a politics that is antithetical to almost any kind of thoughtful conservatism. His international policies have been based on the hopelessly naïve belief that foreign peoples are eager to be liberated by American armies—a notion more grounded in Leon Trotsky’s concept of global revolution than any sort of conservative statecraft. His immigration policies—temporarily put on hold while he runs for re-election—are just as extreme. A re-elected President Bush would be committed to bringing in millions of low-wage immigrants to do jobs Americans “won’t do.” This election is all about George W. Bush, and those issues are enough to render him unworthy of any conservative support.

November 8, 2004 issue
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Ion said:
In today's Electoral Vote, there is:

.) Kerry at 284 votes;

.) Bush at 247 votes.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Let's further put all the Bush's fundies and crooks in a toilet and flush them.

Go Kerry!
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How about an update, just for those that actually follow stuff like this (I'm someone that does. It's sport for me plus I have some real money riding at tradesports)

Kerry 247
Bush 285

I'm thinking they must have gotten hacked. That's almost reverse of the one posted first. I added the numbers up manually and got the same numbers. I went to

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_EC.html

again and they put it at

Kerry 211
Bush 234

With far more toss-ups.
 
Re: Re: Re: Electoral Vote: Kerry 284, Bush 247

varwoche said:
I've been checking that site almost daily since I learned of it a couple of weeks ago. (Yes, I'm pathetic.) Certain polls drop off and come back in a way that I don't understand. Notice this?
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Yes, I've noticed it. I'm beginning to distrust the polls in a real way. The swings swing too far too fast. It's almost as if either the public is messing with their heads and lying or they are intentionally skewing the results (occam's razor applies)

I suppose it could be that America is really that fickled.

The money bets have remained fairly consistant in terms of smooth changes. I trust them for general feel, but not necessarily as an indicator of who will win.
 
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