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Earthquakes in 2012

snok1415

New Blood
S
Joined
Jan 6, 2012
Messages
4
First of all excuse my English, I hope that the text is understood.

For some time I have investigated a "prophet" called Reinaldo Dos Santos, who lately has become famous here in Latin America. There are videos in Youtube where supposedly predicts important events like the 9/11 or the earthquake in Haiti. He was invited on January 2 to a Colombian television program to say what would happen in 2012. His more interesting prophecy is this:

He says that this year strong earthquakes will happen in Puerto Rico, Cuba, Mexico, Jamaica and Peru. He said that "the Caribbean will be the novelty" in terms of natural disasters.


How likely would hit?

Catastrophic earthquakes in recent years:

2009:

- Indonesia / 7.6 / 1,100 deaths.
- Italy / 6.3 / 308 deaths.
- Samoa / 8.1 / 189 deaths.
- Indonesia / 7.0 / 79 deaths.
- Costa Rica / 6.2 / 34 deaths.
- Bhutan / 6.1 / 12 deaths.

2010:

- Haiti / 7.0 / 300,000 deaths.
- China / 6.9 / 2,698 deaths.
- Chile / 8.8 / 521 deaths.
- Indonesia / 7.7 / 435 deaths.
- Turkey / 6.1 / 57 deaths.
- Indonesia / 7.0 / 17 deaths.

2011

- Japan / 9 / 15,836 deaths.
- Turkey / 7.1 / 604 deaths.
- New Zealand / 6,3 / 181 deaths.
- Myanmar-Thailand / 6.8 / 150 deaths.
- India-Nepal / 6.9 / 111 deaths.
- Turkey / 5.7 / 40 deaths.
- Myanmar-China / 5.5 / 26 deaths.
- Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan / 6,2 / 14 deaths.

The last most important in each country:

Puerto Rico - 1918
Cuba - 1992
Mexico - 2003
Jamaica - 1907
Peru - 2007


I don't know a lot of probabilities, but I think it's impossible. Not even the best scientists can predict something like that. Even if occur at least two or three cannot be coincidence. If these have more than 6 degrees in the Richter scale and cause important damage, we would be facing a true seer.

The prophecy is very clear and specific, let's give it a try...
 
snok1415 said:
The prophecy is very clear and specific, let's give it a try...
Click to expand...

Welcome to the JREF Forums, Snok. At least this guy gives some specific locations. Of course, to say he's a psychic or has some powers, he'd have to hit four out of five, I'd say. Or he could limit it to one location, say Jamaica, and predict "... a 7.2 quake between April 17 and 25..."

Here's the Foolmewunz Psychic Challenge. I'm taking the exact opposite of anyone making more than four predictions for the year (other than obvious ones like "there will be a hurricane with much damage in the Caribbean").

We say > 6.0?

Okay, I predict for all five locations THERE WILL NOT BE A QUAKE IN 2012 OVER 6.0.

Check back at the end of the year. If he gets more than 1 out of five, I'll be surprised (a couple of those locations are "due", e.g. Mexico and Peru, I'd believe). But I think I'll have a better record of picking against him.
 
Foolmewunz said:
Okay, I predict for all five locations THERE WILL NOT BE A QUAKE IN 2012 OVER 6.0.
Click to expand...
In Mexico happens a quake of 6 degrees almost every year. In Peru every two or three years. So I don't think your prophecy is fulfill.
But in Cuba, Jamaica and Puerto Rico occur every 20, 50 and 100 years respectively. This is most interesting because he said "there shall be earthquakes in Caribbean countries where we are not accustomed".

LTC8K6 said:
What is "strong"?
Click to expand...
Between 6.0 and 9.9, but in Mexico should be more than 7.0, otherwise it would not make sense unless one of 6.0 kills hundreds of people. He clearly said that would be "very strong".

NOTES: 1. He not assured that the earthquake in Peru will occur this year, saying only that "will soon", but could also be in 2013. Apparently, it will be near Lima. 2. Last year mentioned that in Zihuatanejo (city of Mexico) something important will occur. This city is located in a seismic zone. He has not confirmed that is related, but I add it just in case.
 
Well, I didn't want to come up with different numbers for different countries, e.g. a 7 in Peru and Mexico would be more "out of the ordinary", but since I'm guessing like he's guessing, let's just leave it at 6. He still needs to get four out of five to prove any kind of accuracy.

But - if you take the expression "strong", then I concur that in places where there are 30/40 of various sizes per year, you'd probably be looking at a 7, and maybe a 6 for the other three.

As I said, though,... it's guesswork. There's no specifity to his predictions other than the countries. There never is. I always remind people who believe in this kind of drivel that around Boxing Day in 2004, many of us were reviewing various psychic's predictions made at the beginning of the year. Somehow, not a one of them had predicted the worst natural disaster in recent memory but had predicted things like Jennifer Anniston will make a movie, bed bugs in Boston, or that a team named for an animal would win one of the major sports championships (love that last one). How do you use your powers to predict a starlet's career moves and not pick up on the biggest earthquake of the past hundred years and the tsunami that devastated the coasts of four countries with hundreds of thousands dead.
 
snok1415 said:
I don't know a lot of probabilities, but I think it's impossible. Not even the best scientists can predict something like that. Even if occur at least two or three cannot be coincidence. If these have more than 6 degrees in the Richter scale and cause important damage, we would be facing a true seer.

The prophecy is very clear and specific, let's give it a try...
Click to expand...

Well for me to consider that step he would need to make sure these earthquakes were the only major quakes in the world

Unfortunately three weeks into the new year he has already lost

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/10/7-3-magnitude-quake-strikes-off-indonesia/
 
is this the same Reinaldo Dos Santos who makes earthquale predictions every year and then retracts them when it becomes apparent that he got it wrong

yup, it is,
http://peru.com/actualidad/dos-santos-falta-mucho-terremoto-peru-noticia-4791
:D
he's the one who calls himself "the prophet of America", thats factually correct if you allow that he used the wrong spelling of profit
:p

I put it to you that its not a psychic prediction if there is in place a means to retract it whenever it becomes apparent that its wrong, its just a guess.
 
Last edited:
Marduk said:
is this the same Reinaldo Dos Santos who makes earthquale predictions every year and then retracts them when it becomes apparent that he got it wrong
Click to expand...

Like Sylvia Browne who predicted nearly every year that Elizabeth Taylor would die. But she doesn't bother retracting anything. She just ignores that she ever said it.

Steve S
 
@Complexity

No. I do it for the same reason that James Randi: seek truth and disseminate it.
 
I asked Reinaldo Dos Santos about James Randi and said he was a liar. He said: "I challenged to Randi on my terms, as he does, show that my visions are not real and he fled the challenge and did not attend my calls. What he offers is a hoax"

It seems a mere pretext to escape the situation. Although I don't personally know Randi.
 
snok1415 said:
I asked Reinaldo Dos Santos about James Randi and said he was a liar. He said: "I challenged to Randi on my terms, as he does, show that my visions are not real and he fled the challenge and did not attend my calls. What he offers is a hoax"

It seems a mere pretext to escape the situation. Although I don't personally know Randi.
Click to expand...

Then it's obvious Santos doesn't have the first clue about how the Million Dollar Challenge works.

And I'm guessing that Santos can't back up his lie with any actual evidence.
 
snok1415 said:
I asked Reinaldo Dos Santos about James Randi and said he was a liar. He said: "I challenged to Randi on my terms, as he does, show that my visions are not real and he fled the challenge and did not attend my calls. What he offers is a hoax"

It seems a mere pretext to escape the situation. Although I don't personally know Randi.
Click to expand...

Prove I'm not thinking of a blue elephant.
 
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