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Earthquake Prediction

I'm hardly qualified to comment on real geology, but I can't intuitivly think why anything other than the moon could have an effect, as the moon is the main cause of tides. Since tidal forces are much smaller for every other body to the point of being neglegible, I don't see how a shear stress could be produced.

On predicting earthquakes in general, bear in mind that there are earthquakes constantly occuring, even in "stable" areas. Below magnitude 3 they can't really be felt. Predicting earthquakes in California and only getting a 3.2 is practically a failure. Only getting 1 magnitude 5 even seems like a failure, considering it's estimated that 1300 occur annually at that magnitude.http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/eqstats.html

I certainly wouldn't be impressed with the results. Are you going to evacuate California for an earthquake that can barely be felt?
At least that's my take on it.
 
The Jupiter Effect resurgent.

The key to EQ prediction is local knowledge and detailed observation. The causes of quakes vary. It may be tensional stress related to uplift due to a magma chamber filling at depth; it may be tensional due to lateral plate movement. It may be compressional. (or any combination thereof.) Regional geology varies. Plate movements destroy old rocks which formed in a variety of environments and have different structural characteristics.
You need to know the regional tectonic context and the regional geology, right down to local levels.
Yes, groundwater levels will change before quakes in some places. Not in others. We need to know what to look for in each area.

If a situation has sufficient stress build up to overcome the shear resistance of local rock, something's going to give. The final straw may well be tidal. Or a truck on the highway, or a mining operation, a quarry blast, or a bird landing on a rock.

Lunar tides may well be one trigger, but I doubt planetary gravity is ever a significant factor.
The primary causes of earthquakes are on Earth, not in heaven.
 
sophia8 said:
www.ineter.gob.ni/geofisica/conferencias/ESC2004/Papers%2520ESC%25202004/SCE-Venkatanathan.pdf+%22N+Venkatanathan%22&hl=en&client=firefox-a]These guys say they can predict earthquakes.[/URL]
Opinions, anyone?
Click to expand...
I dont' get it. They have misscalculculated by a few million percent?!? Or have they somehow added the forces? Strange! Well, I trust Truman Collins more then these guys! He has done corrected calculations, according to the text books.

These guys have forces in the scale of 10<sup>25</sup> N where Collins have 10<sup>-20</sup> N.

Odd indeed.
 
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