Earth/Humans reaching TYPE 1 status

[drzeus99]

Just tossing this out to hear what you all think.

Prof. Michio Kaku - www.mkaku.org - theoretical physicist at CUNY (I think), and co-founder
of string field theory (and overall VERY cool/nice guy)
has often spoken about, especially in his lectures and on the DVD of his book Parallel Worlds, about intelligent civilizations and how they can eventually reach higher status levels.

Currently, we are a Type 0 civilization.

The other 3 types are:
Type 1: Has the ability to control the power of a planet. Also has 1 world
language, music/fashion culture, can control the environment, etc.
Type 2: Can control the power of their whole solar system
Type 3: Can control the power of their entire galaxy (ala Star Trek's "The
Borg")

Question. When do you all think (if ever) that humans will become a Type 1
civilization.

(Note: Prof. Kaku thinks that we are close to reaching Type 1 status and
should be there within 100 years <if not even sooner>).

I think he's pretty close. I'm thinking more like 150-200 years (sadly)


Cheers,
DrZ

____________________ This space for rent _____________________

 

[Yoink]

Could you explain what "having the ability to control the power of a planet" means? Is it the same thing as being "able to control the environment," or something else?

 

[Zep]

I think it means: "Making the Earth spin backwards."

 

[drzeus99]

Could you explain what "having the ability to control the power of a planet" means? Is it the same thing as being "able to control the environment," or something else?

Yes, complete control of the planet (environment, weather....)
The smarter any civilization gets, if it survives, it'll be able to harness and control the power of the planet. (Type 1)

If they keep getting more technological, they'll eventually be able to control the power of their star and their star system. (Type 2)

and finally, when they become probably the smartest things in the universe, they woupd be able to harness the power of their galaxy (create rips in the space/time fabric and use as they wish..etc) (Type 3)

Basically:
Type 1: Harness/Control power of a planet
Type 2: " " " " " solar system (the sun, basically)
Type 3: " " " " " galaxy

But Prof. Kaku seems to believe we're on the verge of becoming a Type 1 civilization. He believe that if we don't kill ourselves off, that within 100 years, we'll have advanced to Type 1 status.

I personally believe that's a little kind. I don't think that'll happen for at least 150 years (but within 200 years, I definitely think that will happen)


Cheers,
DrZ

 

[casebro]

Why should we want to?

The Soviet Union proved that central control does NOT work. The random climate has worked fine for billions of years, why mess it up now?

 

[drzeus99]

Why should we want to?

The Soviet Union proved that central control does NOT work. The random climate has worked fine for billions of years, why mess it up now?

It actually implies that we work together, as ONE HUMAN RACE, and with future scientific/technological knowledge, will figure out how to control the power of the planet (and hopefully use that power wisely and productively).


Cheers,
DrZ

 

[GT/CS]

I don't see it ever happening.

We will never be able to control the environment. For example, we will not be able to stop Yellowstone from belching, nor will we be able to prevent tornadoes.

People are too distrustful of each other, and too independent, for there to ever be one government. Plus, in the U.S., there are too many rednecks with guns.

 

[Zep]

Power of the planet...by combining our rings??

 

[Dr. Trintignant]

Just tossing this out to hear what you all think.

A more objective scale to use when determining type status (and the one used by the original Kardashev scale) is energy use.

According to Wikipedia:
Type 1: 10^16 W
Type 2: 10^26 W
Type 3: 10^36 W

Roughly speaking, this corresponds to the energy available on a planet, solar system, and galaxy, respectively. Though obviously these are not perfect matches since they vary in size.

You can come up with a fractional number by using logarithms, according to this equation:
K=(log10(W) - 6)/10

We are at about 1.6x10^13 watts, which would make us a Type 0.72 civilization. However, it's important to note that getting to Type 1 still involves a 600-fold increase in power use.

- Dr. Trintignant

 

[drzeus99]

A more objective scale to use when determining type status (and the one used by the original Kardashev scale) is energy use.

According to Wikipedia:
Type 1: 10^16 W
Type 2: 10^26 W
Type 3: 10^36 W

Roughly speaking, this corresponds to the energy available on a planet, solar system, and galaxy, respectively. Though obviously these are not perfect matches since they vary in size.

You can come up with a fractional number by using logarithms, according to this equation:
K=(log10(W) - 6)/10

We are at about 1.6x10^13 watts, which would make us a Type 0.72 civilization. However, it's important to note that getting to Type 1 still involves a 600-fold increase in power use.

- Dr. Trintignant

Yeah...what he said.

That's what I meant to say. But Dr Trintignant said is so succinctly.


Cheers,
DrZ

 

[dogjones]

If type 1 by definition has one world language... assuming here you mean (one, and ONLY one) then a lot of people are going to have to die in order to get there.

 

[drzeus99]

If type 1 by definition has one world language... assuming here you mean (one, and ONLY one) then a lot of people are going to have to die in order to get there.

By World language, I mean a language that can be used throughout the world.
All experts agree that English seems to be that language. You can walk down practically any street in any major world city and conduct an interview with a local who speaks English. No other language comes close to that.

In order to compete in the global market place, English is taught around the world to students. Not French or any other language. Educators and countries know that in order to advance yourself in life, if people knew English, out of any language in the world, they would have the best advantages. I'm not saying this happens in EVERY country, but watch any TV show where cameras are in a foreign land. Most of the kids know some English and they say they are learning it in school. Most, if not all of Europe has English classed for their students. Much of South America and Africa has them too, mainly do to outsourcing jobs like telemarketing. We all know they speak English in India. All our Tech Support calls are routed there!

But local languages...they will probably be around for thousands of years.

Cheers,
Alex

 

[The Man]

So what about a Type 4 civilization: Can control the power of an entire universe.

Personally I would find a type 1 civilization awful damn boring.

 

[drzeus99]

So what about a Type 4 civilization: Can control the power of an entire universe.

Personally I would find a type 1 civilization awful damn boring.

Ahhh.....in that case, I suspect they be indistinguishable from "god"


Cheers,
DrZ

 

[Yoink]

Well, it's all speculation, but I can't imagine any technological advance in the next 100-150 years that would make us able to "control" the planet in the sense you mean. The Yellowstone caldera is a great example. What possible mechanism could you imagine by which we would be able to turn forces of that magnitude on and off at will?

 

[The Man]

So where does the extra power come from? In order to control a planet, make it do something other then what it is already doing, you would basically need the energy of another planet. So what other planet should a type 1 civilization sacrifice to enable them to “play” with their planet? What universe would a type 4 civilization sacrifice in order to “play GOD”?

 

[Roboramma]

I've always understood a Type 1 civilization to be one that harnesses all of the energy available on it's home planet - though I've thought of it more specifically as all of the solar energy.

It's the most high energy civilization capable without venturing into space. Similarly a type 2 civilization is the most high energy civilization possible without venturing to other stars. A type 3 is the most high energy civilization possible without venturing to other galaxies.

The definition might be more useful if it took into account resources other than energy, but it also makes it more complicated, so for the sake of this conversation I'll leave it there.

There is something interesting there, and it's the transition from one to the other. For instance imagine a world where our only power source were solar power (just to make things simple). As terrestrial space was filled with solar power collectors, we would come to a point where collecting power in space was less expensive than doing so on earth. At that point we begin the transition from type 1 to type 2, even though, of course, there may still be some potential for growth planet-side. Something similar might happen in respect to the transition from type 2 to type 3.

As to how soon it will happen, I agree that it's not that far away, unless we fail to manage our resources well and have some sort of environmental or economic collapse (which I don't think is all that unlikely). We're already using a considerable percentage of the total energy available to the biosphere, for instance. Admittedly there is a great room for improvement in efficiency but that's another issue.

 

[HghrSymmetry]

Deleted.

 

[my_wan]

Personally I don't think the type scheme used is not very relevant. I find it unlikely that a civilization much advanced beyond ours would much care about planets at all, except for possibly a supply depot for raw material. Fundamental physical limits likely exist that prevent direct control by a given government over an unlimited region of space. For the same reason the technical ability to gain power assets totaling that of a galaxy is probably pointless. It is sufficient that power needs of any physically conceivable project can be met.

 

[The Man]

I've always understood a Type 1 civilization to be one that harnesses all of the energy available on it's home planet - though I've thought of it more specifically as all of the solar energy.

It's the most high energy civilization capable without venturing into space. Similarly a type 2 civilization is the most high energy civilization possible without venturing to other stars. A type 3 is the most high energy civilization possible without venturing to other galaxies.

The definition might be more useful if it took into account resources other than energy, but it also makes it more complicated, so for the sake of this conversation I'll leave it there.

There is something interesting there, and it's the transition from one to the other. For instance imagine a world where our only power source were solar power (just to make things simple). As terrestrial space was filled with solar power collectors, we would come to a point where collecting power in space was less expensive than doing so on earth. At that point we begin the transition from type 1 to type 2, even though, of course, there may still be some potential for growth planet-side. Something similar might happen in respect to the transition from type 2 to type 3.

As to how soon it will happen, I agree that it's not that far away, unless we fail to manage our resources well and have some sort of environmental or economic collapse (which I don't think is all that unlikely). We're already using a considerable percentage of the total energy available to the biosphere, for instance. Admittedly there is a great room for improvement in efficiency but that's another issue.

OK, this sounds more reasonable to me, the type classifications merely refers to the magnitude of power under the control of the civilization. Not that the planet, solar system or galaxy is directly under their control. Is that what Professor Kaku meant?