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Do polls underestimate Trumps support?

Caper

Philosopher
Caper
Joined
Jun 18, 2007
Messages
5,741
Wasn't sure how to word this question. But I am wondering if polls might get a underestimate Trump actual support.

So I'll preface this by saying Trump should not be president. I am right wing, but Hillary is the much better candidate. But I don't know that if I walked into a voting booth if I could vote for Hillary Clinton. I just cannot stand her. I could see myself voting for Trump (a wrong choice, just because I hate HC).

Now on the other side of that. You have people that maybe big republicans, that think they are voting Trump, but in the end cannot vote for such a fool.

Now I'm wondering will those groups cancel each other out and the current polling makes it basically accurate or are there a certain group of Trump voters that are embarrassed to even support Trump and wouldn't want to admit even on the phone.
 
Vote for Clinton and if you hate her so much, get like minded people to nominate a COMPETENT alternative in 4 years. You made it through Obama. You'll make it through Clinton.
 
I think polling accuracy hinges on methodology. Polls conducted via coldcalling landline phones in the middle of a weekday are not going to get a sample representative of the whole populace. They're going to get my senile 103 year old grandpa who supports any candidate willing to speak up about the burglarous dwarfs who have been breaking into my grandpa's house every night for forty years but leave no trace behind of their activities and never actually steal anything. They do, however, rearrange the vast collections of empty jars and boxes that might one day be useful for something. Grandpa would also like a candidate ready to pledge funding to an expedition to dig up those ancient alien pyramids under the ice in Greenland. Grandpa has lots of political notions and plenty of time to talk to pollsters.
 
Yes.

I am familiar with a raft full of rabid trumpites who have not been poled, and I'd like to poll them the old fashioned way but it is generally frowned upon.
 
Caper said:
So I'll preface this by saying Trump should not be president. I am right wing, but Hillary is the much better candidate. But I don't know that if I walked into a voting booth if I could vote for Hillary Clinton. I just cannot stand her. I could see myself voting for Trump (a wrong choice, just because I hate HC).
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I don't understand this at all.
 
I guess there's people out there who "Think Y is a better candidate for President of the United States then X but I hate Y a lot more than X" is a lot bigger viable grey area then it is for me.

I'm trying to square the circle of "Hillary would do a better job in the office but I'm voting for the objectively worse candidate because I subjectively like her less" and not getting very far.
 
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I have been skeptical of this point.

First, let me preface this by saying these invisible voters can be true, but we have no evidence to suspect they exist.

Why do we think there is an underground well of Trump supporters? This isn't the first election the losing candidate called on a silent majority. That doesn't materialize. There are a large percentage of non voters. Getting them to vote was a Sanders strategy and it didn't work. Occasionally, an idiot says they can win as a third party to get that 40% missing to vote for them.

I think people worry about it because they think Trump is unique. I wouldn't bet on it.
 
BobTheCoward said:
I think people worry about it because they think Trump is unique. I wouldn't bet on it.
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Oh I think Trump is very unique. He isn't playing "nice" with the Dems and that counts for something in some people's minds.

Not even a fraction of a percentage of enough to tip the election (standard caveat: out of some way outside of statistical probability political scenario occurring) but yeah I do think we're going to see some voters this election who sat out the last one or two.
 
If what happens in the primaries holds true then they're overestimating it. He underperformed by an average of ~1% which was buoyed by his performance in primaries after he secured nomination.
 
From experience in the last two election I've voted in (Alberta provincial and Canada federal) the polls overestimated support for conservative candidates.

My hypothesis for this is that younger/smarter people tend to be more left leaning, and less likely to answer polls. Whether that's because they can't be bothered, or won't answer calls from numbers they don't know, I'm not sure.
 
rustypouch said:
From experience in the last two election I've voted in (Alberta provincial and Canada federal) the polls overestimated support for conservative candidates.

My hypothesis for this is that younger/smarter people tend to be more left leaning, and less likely to answer polls. Whether that's because they can't be bothered, or won't answer calls from numbers they don't know, I'm not sure.
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I think younger voters being less likely to have landlines makes them harder to get a hold of so they end up underrepresented. Older voters are more conservative and have landlines so they end up overrepresented.
 
I am truly afraid that Trump is going to win this election. The logical part of my brain says no way he could win, but it also said no way he could win the primary. I just want this election to be over with. This Presidential election is like a really bad reality show that I am not able to turn off.
 
BobTheCoward said:
I have been skeptical of this point.

First, let me preface this by saying these invisible voters can be true, but we have no evidence to suspect they exist.
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I was kind of thinking about Brexit. I thought I read in the aftermath they figure a lot of people might have not been willing to admit they were voting to leave because they were perceived as racist. I am wondering if the same dynamic might be in play here.
 
Scootch said:
I am truly afraid that Trump is going to win this election. The logical part of my brain says no way he could win, but it also said no way he could win the primary. I just want this election to be over with. This Presidential election is like a really bad reality show that I am not able to turn off.
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Right now the forecasting is saying he has a 1 in 3 chance of winning... that's like doubling his chances of from last week.

Go roll a dice... if you get 2 or 6... Trump is your president.
 
rustypouch said:
From experience in the last two election I've voted in (Alberta provincial and Canada federal) the polls overestimated support for conservative candidates.

My hypothesis for this is that younger/smarter people tend to be more left leaning, and less likely to answer polls. Whether that's because they can't be bothered, or won't answer calls from numbers they don't know, I'm not sure.
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So why didn't that same demographic of younger and smarter people carry the day in the UK to stop Brexit?
 
Call me Mr Cynical (or Lord Cynical. Yes, I like that) but the same TV networks that report a close race get more viewers and higher ratings than they would if a race were a foregone conclusion. It's in their own interests to make everything sound excitingly up-in-the-air, whether it is or not.
 
I wish people would focus on the main question at hand -- possible systemic bias in polling -- rather than the OP's choice of candidates.

Pollsters are well aware of social desirability bias/Bradley Effect. If they are underestimating his support, it would not be surprise. If they're dead accurate, then that would not be much of a surprise either.

Four years ago Republicans claimed the polls did not reflect the race, and in a way they were right: most of the polls underestimated support for Obama.
 
Cain said:
I wish people would focus on the main question at hand -- possible systemic bias in polling -- rather than the OP's choice of candidates.

Pollsters are well aware of social desirability bias/Bradley Effect. If they are underestimating his support, it would not be surprise. If they're dead accurate, then that would not be much of a surprise either.

Four years ago Republicans claimed the polls did not reflect the race, and in a way they were right: most of the polls underestimated support for Obama.
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Good post. That's why I think it might be underestimating Trump this time. Because I can't see people having the same level of shame or not wanting to admit to a pollster or themselves they are supporting Hillary.
 
Caper said:
So I'll preface this by saying Trump should not be president. I am right wing, but Hillary is the much better candidate. But I don't know that if I walked into a voting booth if I could vote for Hillary Clinton. I just cannot stand her. I could see myself voting for Trump (a wrong choice, just because I hate HC).
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So feeling over fact, then?
 
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