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Cruisers - Hurricane Warning

Looking at this page, it seems like we are unlikely to see much effect.

<cue background music " . . . a three hour tour....">
 
you know, if you DO sink, the Bermuda Triangle will get ALL the blame!!!

thanks!

Leave the surviving skeptics to try to explain THAT away!!!
 
Beady said:
Looks like the worst it would do is force us to stay in the western Gulf, rather than go to the Bahamas. Belize may be back on.
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That would be wonderful - as we are still confirmed for our Belize excursion.
 
Well Tropical Storm Debby seems to be expected to peel away, but tropical depression number five would seem to be on a collision course for us cruisers.

I wonder if this will turn into an Eastern Carribean Cruise?
 
VPescado said:
I wonder if this will turn into an Eastern Carribean Cruise?
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Looking at the 5-day, looks like we'll be OK for Key West, but Cozumel may be out. Anybody for Nassau? That would mean the whole cruise would be spent in the Triangle.

However, if the storm doesn't strengthen, the center looks to be well northwest of Cozumel by the time we're due to dock. I guess we just wouldn't have clear-blue skies.

Hey Jeff? Feel like giving odds?
 
At the moment, it appears that Key West has a 20% chance of experiencing winds of 40 to 73 mph while we're there. Cozumel is barely inside the 30% area.

Whatever, it's going to be breezy, and I don't think I'm going to be eating a lot on Formal Night.
 
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Let's see.. Debby is completely ouf of the picture.

They're predicting a 5% for tropical storm winds in Key West when we get there.

They're predicting 20% chance of tropical storm winds when we're in Cozumel.

Tropical force winds are 39MPH. The ship moves at 28 MPH or so. This is not that big of a deal.

And even if the absolute worst possible forecast came true.. we'd STILL have a great time, and the cruise line would probably take us to San Juan instead.

I'd be more concerned if we were going to Jamaica, but I think we have an EXCELLENT forecast for a quiet cruise.

Also note, that they're predicting a 0% chance of a hurricane in the area while we're there.
 
Jeff Wagg said:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

They're predicting a 5% for tropical storm winds in Key West when we get there.
They're predicting 20% chance of tropical storm winds when we're in Cozumel.
Tropical force winds are 39MPH.
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Correction: Tropical storm-force winds are 39-72 mph. Although, at the percentages we're getting, we're likely to be at the lower end of the scale. As I said, breezy, but I've seen worse here at home. Besides, our balcony cabin will be on the leeward side of the ship. :D

Another thing to think about is that the storm center will be crossing our track ahead of us, and we will pass somewhere behind it; how close will we get to the center? It's an interesting exercise.

A word of advice, speaking from experience: If you do start feeling sick, head out on deck or onto your balcony if you have one. Ships' motion is much easier to deal with, even fun, on deck. OTOH, it may be "interesting" being in the pool in rough seas.

And even if the absolute worst possible forecast came true.. we'd STILL have a great time, and the cruise line would probably take us to San Juan instead.
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I've always wanted to go to San Juan, and explore the castle/fort. And San Juan is still inside the Triangle.

Also note, that they're predicting a 0% chance of a hurricane in the area while we're there.
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Yeah, well, you can't win 'em all.
 
It's getting worse. It is now Tropical Storm "Ernesto." Looks like they're forecasting hurricane strength as the center passes due east of Cozumel, Monday afternoon.

Jeff, what are the most likely changes to the itinerary?
 
Yep, it's getting worse. Still unlikely to affect us, but in the event that it does, the likely ports are Nassau or San Juan. But there's no point in worrying about it now. Or at all, actually.
 
Jeff Wagg said:
They're predicting 20% chance of tropical storm winds when we're in Cozumel.
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It's not just the winds though. It would put a damper (pun intended) on things if there was a huge amount of rain hitting us both on the ship and in port at Cozumel.

Snorkling will be a lot less interesting if the sea has churned up a huge amount of sand in the water.
 
Let me preface this by saying, that I am absolutely not concerned about the safety of the ship or the crew. Cruise ships are huge investments, and passenger lawsuits are huge liabilities (not to mention that the last thing they want is a thousand passengers going home and telling all thier friends about the miserable time they had on their cruise). I trust RCL to act in their best interests and take us out of the path of the storm. That said, I'm a mild bit concerned about rain, but most of all I am curious.

So, I just called RCCL. Their Hurricaine Team (I visualize them as all wearing jumpsuits camped out in the Royal Carribean Hurricane Command center with a large supply of coffee and donuts and several TV's blaring weather updates) is actively monitoring the situation in regards to several cruises including ours. They are making updates every couple of hours, but it is still obviously quite early for anything definitive. They are expecting some swells in Key West when we are there but aren't that worried about it at this point. What happens after Key West is an open question.

If anyone wanted to get updates, I was told that the reservation number is a great choice to talk to someone with the latest info (+1 866 562 7625).
 
Jeff Wagg said:
Still unlikely to affect us, but in the event that it does, the likely ports are Nassau or San Juan.
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Jeff, Nassau would be no problem, logistically, but isn't San Juan a pretty long haul? I'm just guessing, but it seems the only way they could do it in the time allotted would be to eliminate both Key West and Cococay.

BTW, if it happens, it happens. Still, as Sean Connery once said in one of my favorite movies*, "It is good to know where we are going."

*The Wind and the Lion.
 
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Ceritus said:
id be more worried about ERNESTO
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That is indeed the storm that we have been discussing since yesterday afternoon (back when it was only called tropical depression number five).
 
Yes, that's my sentiment. Why are we discussing this? I just want to hang out with skeptics on a big ship, even if it just does circles in the Bermuda Triangle. Of course, we should veer outside just to say we did in fact escape.
 
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