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Could This Lump Power the Planet?

Skeptic Ginger

Nasty Woman
Joined
Feb 14, 2005
Messages
96,955
There's nothing "woo" about it; this is respectable, mainstream, evidence-driven science and engineering.

It's fair to ask questions like, "will the resulting power be competitive with fission/solar/?" and so on. But those aren't generic "skeptic" questions, like the questions you ask of homeopaths or Steorn or whatever. They're serious engineering questions.
 
The most significant statement in the article is this one:

fusion energy is only 40 years away, and will always be only 40 years away

I sincerely hope this is wrong.
 
Of course it is wrong. We know what to do, we almost know how to do it, we're just not able to build the machine to do it yet. However, the obstackles are in the areas of high power lasers, supermagnets, high-power physics, high-power computers. What has happened in the last 40 years in those areas? What can be expected to happen in the next?

Hans
 
I sincerely hope this is wrong.

To put it into proper context, the actual statement is:
The joke is that fusion energy is only 40 years away, and will always be only 40 years away.

I sincerely hope he this is right and it is indeed just a joke. ;)

McHrozni
 
It's a joke all right, but unfortunately it's only funny because it has a kernel of truth: I think I first heard it over 30 years ago and, now as then, people are still saying 40 years away sounds reasonable.

Edit to add: Does anyone know just how old the joke is? I wonder when it was first put into print.
 
Last edited:
Post 1905 for a certainty ;)

••••

To answer the OP - laserfusion is very much real. Energy has already been released....it's just not self sustaining.

I don't know if you completed the article but I have no idea what would lead you to think that engineering and science on this scale

http://www.newsweek.com/id/222792/page/2

would

a) not have an immensely strong theoretical base
b) lead up experiments demonstrating proof of concept.

It has both....that said - there may be other barriers unanticipated....that's why the money is being spent on a potentially commercial scale unit.

There is another being built in Europe approaching it from the traditional standpoint of magnetic confinement

http://www.iter.org/default.aspx?id=2152

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7972865.stm

This is big time science and engineering but in the backdrop of a seemingly forever receding horizon :(

Still the idea is commercial energy by 2030
http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/12/proposed-laser-ignition-fusionfission.html

One can hope _ do like this laser ignition fusion/fission hybrid as it may have a shorter timeline.
 
It's a joke all right, but unfortunately it's only funny because it has a kernel of truth: I think I first heard it over 30 years ago and, now as then, people are still saying 40 years away sounds reasonable.

Edit to add: Does anyone know just how old the joke is? I wonder when it was first put into print.
Off topic, I have my own version of that joke. When I, as a very young fellow, set off on a carreer in electronics, people told me: "You must realize that in another 15 years, you will be too old to follow the developement". They still do. (I'm 60 now :p).

Hans
 
The goal of ITER is to sustain a fusion reaction for eight minutes. This should pave the way for building a first powerplant ( DEMO ) hopefully producing power in 2050 (yup, that's 40 years from now)
 
OK, so this is in Newsweek, it is the Lawrence Livermore Lab and I don't have a clue if this is good science or woo other than viable power from nuclear fusion has kind of been in the woo category up to this point.

So I am calling on the knowledgeable skeptics here to weigh in. (My apologies if this is a duplicate thread.)

Newsweek: Scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Lab are betting $3.5 billion in taxpayer money on a tiny pellet that could produce an endless supply of safe,
Sounds too good to be true. When it sunds like this it usually is too good to be true.
 
OK, so this is in Newsweek, it is the Lawrence Livermore Lab and I don't have a clue if this is good science or woo other than viable power from nuclear fusion has kind of been in the woo category up to this point.

So I am calling on the knowledgeable skeptics here to weigh in. (My apologies if this is a duplicate thread.)

Newsweek: Scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Lab are betting $3.5 billion in taxpayer money on a tiny pellet that could produce an endless supply of safe,

I wonder at the tone of the "sceptics" (scientists themselves) in the article. If this project is indeed based on real science, and has produced some incremental breakthroughs in laser technology, then why the vehement language, such as "snake-oil salesman"? Is it just professional jealousy ( my project and idea are better than his, why am I not getting this funding?") or is the approach this team is using fatally flawed?

I would think that the scientific community would welcome any well funded, reality-based project; these projects tend to produce unexpected ancillary benefits, employ talented people who later move on to bigger ideas (think NASA), and have that chance of actually accomplishing their goal.

So why the nasty tone of the naysayers in the article? Did they simply interview the wrong people to get an opposing viewpoint?

I, like most sane people, would welcome a hint of a true possibility of such a breakthrough. If commercial fusion reactors firing up in 30 years were to suddenly become a possibility, hope for our ongoing prosperity would flower immediately. Psychologically, this would be huge.
 
Why do you think sudden prosperity...they will be expensive like current nukes.

What we need NOW is a few hundred more current and 3rd Gen nukes to dump coal.

Nuclear power over time is cheap.
 
We know what to do, we almost know how to do it, we're just not able to build the machine to do it yet.

I'd make a slight correction to that. It's not that we're not able to build the machine, it's just that we haven't built it yet. We're pretty sure we know what to do and how to do it, but we haven't finished building the machine to do it so we're not entirely sure.

I wonder at the tone of the "sceptics" (scientists themselves) in the article. If this project is indeed based on real science, and has produced some incremental breakthroughs in laser technology, then why the vehement language, such as "snake-oil salesman"? Is it just professional jealousy ( my project and idea are better than his, why am I not getting this funding?") or is the approach this team is using fatally flawed?

Well, firstly it's worth noting that only one person quoted could really be described as "vehement", the other expressing skepticism about it was simply saying that he doesn't think it's there yet and bigger lasers are needed. It's hard to say why anyone would describe this as snake-oil, but it may be worth noting that the National Resources Defence Council that he is a member of is an environmental charity and lobby group, and not actually anything to do with nuclear research. From what I can tell from their website, it appears his concerns, which may well be justified, are to do with the politics and funding behind the establishment of NIF, and nothing to do with the actual science. I doubt he would have anything bad to say about the science itself, but he believes that the case for NIF was not adequately made and that it was pushed through due to political and financial interests despite not actually being capable of producing sustainable fusion.

There does tend to be some rivalry between researchers in inertial confinement fusion, which is what is discussed here, and magnetic confinement, which is what ITER will test. So far magnetic confinement is ahead, having achieved break-even (the point where you generate as much power as you put in). However, the rivalry mostly consists of saying things along the lines of "Their approach might work, but we're going to get there first.", rather than anything particularly nasty. However, I don't think that's really what influenced the comments here.

I would think that the scientific community would welcome any well funded, reality-based project; these projects tend to produce unexpected ancillary benefits, employ talented people who later move on to bigger ideas (think NASA), and have that chance of actually accomplishing their goal.

Ah, if only scientists weren't human.;)

So why the nasty tone of the naysayers in the article? Did they simply interview the wrong people to get an opposing viewpoint?

Well, as I say, I don't think there was actually much of a nasty tone. The only quote that could be viewed as nasty was the snake-oil comment, and it seems that was probably aimed more at the politicians and management involved than the actual science and scientists.
 
I'm working on magnetic fusion confinement, but it means I rub shoulders with inertial confinement people too. I have to agree with everyone else here in saying that ICF is far from 'woo', being well tested and having a solid theoretical base.

There is a bit of a rivalry between ICF and MCF, but that just because the ICF people are bitter that we're backing the faster horse ;)

In all seriousness, though, I think ICF may overtake MCF soon. A new project, HiPER, is sort of their equivalent of ITER, being the last step before a demonstration plant. HiPER doesn't have funding yet as far as I'm aware, though it does have support from plenty of universities, and could be up and running around 2025.

The advantage HiPER holds over ITER is that HiPER (if its built) could be modified into a power plant itself, rather than requiring a new facility like DEMO for MCF. That means that, although MCF seems to be winning the race at the moment, ICF could make the sprint finish.

Time (and money) will tell!
 
EVEN if ITER is a stunning success, and its follow-on production plants operate reliably. we can build Thorium Energy Amplifiers at 10% the cost per MW generated.

And we could have the first one online in ten years, and build them quickly.

And we have a LOT of Thorium on the planet.

And I cannot for the life of me understand why we do not have a pilot plant being designed right now.
 
EVEN if ITER is a stunning success, and its follow-on production plants operate reliably. we can build Thorium Energy Amplifiers at 10% the cost per MW generated.

An old colleague pointed out to me once: one of the reasons it's hard to ramp up new nuclear fuel cycles is that we aren't training enough nuclear chemists. He had some incredibly grim numbers about the shrinking enrollments (often to zero) in nuclear-related Ph.D. programs across the country.

We have lots of skilled plasma-physics and laser-engineering research capacity---lots of top people, good institutions, etc. So if someone has an idea for improving ICF: bang, there's a letter-of-intent and a proposal and a flurry of activity out of Livermore, Rochester, Sandia, etc. New ideas in MCF? Princeton and MIT pounce on it, and they have the people and infrastructure to make it happen. That kind of excitement has a lot of pull on a funding agency. Remember, a lot of this research funding gets "pulled", not "pushed"---the DOE sits there with money and waits for proposals/arguments to come in; the proposals "pull" the money out. An incredibly good idea that nobody pushes the case for is unlikely to get very far.

So Rubbia (smart guy, but doesn't run a nuclear engineering lab) comes up with Accelerator Transmutation and it just sits there---there's no group of experts sitting around waiting to pounce on the next step. There's no big, diverse university lab writing grants to develop new actinide chemistry. There's not even a group that's quite qualified to make the case to the DOE that they should "push" resources in this direction: Rubbia's work stops at " ... but there are a bunch of unanswered questions about the fuel chemistry and we can't tell if it will ever work. Anyone else know? Anyone?" That's not the most forceful case. A forceful case is "If you give us $1B, then group X will answer this fuel-chemistry question and group Y will answer this blanket-materials question and group Z will do value engineering on the accelerator". That's the sort of proposal that the ICF and MCF people are capable of writing.

Anyway: my colleague said that France (for example) has a perfectly functional nuclear-chemistry training system, and much more capability to "push" research from the top. So all is not lost.
 
There's nothing "woo" about it; this is respectable, mainstream, evidence-driven science and engineering.

It's fair to ask questions like, "will the resulting power be competitive with fission/solar/?" and so on. But those aren't generic "skeptic" questions, like the questions you ask of homeopaths or Steorn or whatever. They're serious engineering questions.
Don't misunderstand me, that wasn't my point.

I am asking sincerely if fusion has passed from the takes-more-energy-to-produce-than-you-get or whatever the barriers were into the reaching-feasibility phase? This is not my area of expertise and this is the first time I've seen news it might be on the horizon since the cold fusion claims from decades ago.
 

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