Concerned about Egypt

[Undesired Walrus]

With parliamentary elections only days away, there is fresh oppression in Tahrir Square.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15809739

Egyptian troops and police have stormed Tahrir Square in Cairo to try to seize control from protesters who had set up camp there.

Demonstrators fled as officers fired tear gas and beat them with truncheons. At least four people have died in the violence since Saturday, reports say.

By nightfall, thousands of protesters, some wearing gas masks, had returned.

The demonstrators say they fear Egypt's military rulers are trying to retain their grip on power.

The demonstrators seem to have a legitimate grievance.

Earlier in November, Egypt's military rulers produced a draft document setting out principles for a new constitution.

Under those guidelines, the military would be exempted from civilian oversight, as would its budget.

This has angered protesters who fear the gains they have made during the uprising could yet slip away as the military tries to retain some grip on power.

As I understand it though, the representatives elected in the elections will write the new constitution. Is there any way of the military's wishes becoming part of this constitution?

 

[Darth Rotor]

Walrus, this was somewhat predictable, in the terms of "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" is a pretty standard template for revolution/social change. (On this side of the pond, that annoys the hell out of some of President Obama's supporters).

I am getting mixed signals on who benefits from this churn in Egypt, but the last two articles showed that Muslim Brotherhood is trying to spread its appeal.

Too early to tell what will happen, other than more churn for a while.

The news in Syria is far more interesting to me, given the chance that it could collapse in the near term.

 

[A'isha]

This is what I was afraid would happen, that the military would take advantage of the protests against Mubarak to cement their own control of the country, and would reject any attempts at democratic reform that might endanger their hegemony.

From what friends in Cairo have told me, the casualties are a lot higher this time because the military which had held back during the early protests against Mubarak are cracking down much more violently on these current protests, now that they're against them.

My relatives live in Alexandria, and I'm trying to find out from my uncle what's happening to them in all this. The last round of violence was enough to send my cousin Laila, the matriarch of my Egyptian relatives, on an extended visit to relatives in Europe just because she was shaken so badly by events at home. This new chaos looks to be even worse than what caused that, so I'm really worried about all of them.

 

[Johny2x4]

A similar thing happened in Portugal after the military booted out the fascists (tho with less violence). There was a threat of civil war between communist backed military regiments and remaining military. Post revolutionary periods by rule aren´t calm at all.

 

[Ziggurat]

Egypt has even bigger problems than this. It imports something like half its caloric consumption, but it's running out of money. When the money is gone, we could be looking at Somalia on the Nile...

 

[Eddie Dane]

Egypt has even bigger problems than this. It imports something like half its caloric consumption, but it's running out of money. When the money is gone, we could be looking at Somalia on the Nile...

"Somalia on the Nile"
That has high adventure written all over it.

Maybe you should try to sell that to the Egyptian tourist bureau.
The'll be looking for a good slogan in the coming years.

 

[JihadJane]

The demonstrators seem to have a legitimate grievance.

Seem?

 

[The Don]

Seem?

Well to be fair, we're not there on the ground listening to them all we have are media reports and here in the UK mainstream just Western media reports. It would be easy for the demonstrators' true position to be misrepresented for our consumption, it's happened often enough after all.

 

[A'isha]

Well to be fair, we're not there on the ground listening to them all we have are media reports and here in the UK mainstream just Western media reports. It would be easy for the demonstrators' true position to be misrepresented for our consumption, it's happened often enough after all.

While I haven't heard yet from my relatives in Alexandria, I do know someone who lives and works in Cairo, and he has no doubt that the demonstrators absolutely have legitimate grievances.

The military has essentially taken control of the counter-revolution, and has been rather active in doing things like grabbing the leaders of the earlier uprising and hauling them before tribunals on trumped-up charges, jailing people critical of the military, blaming mysterious "unknown" shooters for the Maspero massacre (including calling one of the protestors who was killed one of the conspirators to perpetrate the massacre) while saying that the army forces that it's clear actually committed the massacre were just "welcom[ing] the protesters by firing in the air", and whitewashing investigations into crimes committed by military officers like this sexual assault.

This is, according to him, in addition to the military demanding that the new Egyptian constitution include no civilian or parliamentary oversight of the military budget, no civilian minister of the armed forces or interior ministry, and neither the president nor parliament having the ability to order the military into action.

Essentially, Mubarak himself may be out, but the entire governmental structure that he headed is still in power, and still doing the same things it always has.