Chinese begin to worry U.S. militarily

Tony

Penultimate Amazing
Tony
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http://www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/articles/2005/04/07/news/china.html

ZHANJIANG, China When the flagship of the U.S. Navy's 7th Fleet came into view on a recent Monday afternoon, a Chinese naval band onshore quickly began playing as two rows of Chinese sailors snapped into formation and workers hurriedly finished tacking down a red carpet.

The command ship, the Blue Ridge, answered with music from its own band and raised a Chinese flag below Old Glory.

But the most apt symbolism in the stagecraft of the ceremonial visit came when the two navies staged a tug-of-war - evoking their emerging competition in East Asia.

While the American military is consumed with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, global terrorism, and the threat of nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran, China is presenting a new and strategically different security concern to America in the western Pacific, as well as to Japan and Taiwan, Pentagon and military officials say
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Is the beginning of another arms race and perhaps another world war?
 
Well, I think China would like to emerge and take the old Soviet Union's place as a superpower. Here's what you may find odd, I don't think this is a bad thing. Simply put, as long as the rivalry doesn't escalate into all out war (which it never did with the Soviets, after all) the competition is healthy. Science and technology made great strides during the Cold War as we tried to outdo them and they us. I think the competition was good for smoothing over our internal political differences too, to a point.

Right now, with no strong international rival, I think we risk falling into stagnation and internal bickering. So oddly, a powerful China is good for us, IMO .
 
How long before China starts falling apart? Maoism seems even more unwieldy than Leninism, and they've been playing around with bits of capitalism here and there. Not to mention absorbing Hong Kong, which can't help but influence things. Plus they've always had problems with ethnic minorities wanting more autonomy, particularly in the west, and recent events seem to be increasing agitation there. I don't see China as being utterly stable and cohesive to the point of lasting another twenty years without a lot of change. A new cold war might be fairly shortlived.

Which could, of course, be good or bad. Good scenario: China gives up communism and settles down into a stable democracy. Bad scenario: China decides the best way to hold itself together against internal problems is to get into a long war, which might encourage internal unity and distract the disaffected.
 
Nyarlathotep said:
Well, I think China would like to emerge and take the old Soviet Union's place as a superpower. Here's what you may find odd, I don't think this is a bad thing. Simply put, as long as the rivalry doesn't escalate into all out war (which it never did with the Soviets, after all) the competition is healthy. Science and technology made great strides during the Cold War as we tried to outdo them and they us. [...]
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What about Eastern Europe under the Soviet boot and US support for SOBs who are "our SOBs"? Similarly, if China is a superpower, then won't it develop its own zone of influence and won't the US support various SOBs in an effort to maintain stability and prevent China from having too much influence?
 
I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for China to fall apart in the sense of the old USSR.

For one thing, they are not denigrating personal wealth, which will provide them with a tax base that the Soviets couldn't equal.

And that will make it much easier for them to refine and support the super-military they have already built up.

I do think that they will face unintended consequences, but who's to say what those might be?
 
The idea said:
What about Eastern Europe under the Soviet boot and US support for SOBs who are "our SOBs"? Similarly, if China is a superpower, then won't it develop its own zone of influence and won't the US support various SOBs in an effort to maintain stability and prevent China from having too much influence?
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Those Eastern EUropean countries endued up under Soviet Rule as a direct result of WWII. And I will be the first to admit that if we had a WWIII, it would change the equation entirely.

As for 'our' SOB's and 'their' SOBs, that's the way things are now anyway. It is the way thngs always have been in international politics, it is the way things always will be in international politics. A new cold war wouldn't change that any more than the cessation of the last one did.
 
Nyarlathotep said:
As for 'our' SOB's and 'their' SOBs [...] it is the way things always will be in international politics.
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Are you psychic?
 
Nyarlathotep said:
Nope. Just realistic about human nature.
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Ditto that. Things could change but that's the way it's always been. It still must suck to be last one picked to play on either team. Sort of like North Korea.
 
Tony said:
http://www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/articles/2005/04/07/news/china.html



Is the beginning of another arms race and perhaps another world war?
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War would require some particular point of conflict. China emerging as an economic power isn't sufficient cause. It has no need to politically dominate surrounding economies, since it's doing pretty well as it is. Imperialism is sooooo yesterday.

Access to resources is a common cause of war, but as long as they are available on the free market that won't be a problem. Any attempt to pre-empt resources - say, a US policy banning exports of oil from the Americas - will be risky, but probably won't be worth a war. The greatest danger is Taiwan. Not only is there the greatest scope for misunderstanding between the US and China on this issue, there are also the Taiwanese to complicate matters. Think Serbia in 1914 ...
 
Good points in this thread.

Grammatron is correct: concern over China dates back at least to the Korean War.

(And for Grammy: I haven't forgotten the spyplane. Had an interesting discussion this week with someone who intelligently discussed how we mishandled the incident and offered an intriguing, if confrontational, alternative.)

Nyarlathotep brings up an interesting point, too. I also am not against the idea of a "balancing" power for the US. At least in the abstract. There are worrisome potentials, though. Then again, there are worrisome potentials and actualities now.

I also agree with crimresearch. China will not fall apart unless something happens external to their course now. In my decidely layman's opinion, China is on an inexorable road to economic dominance, and economic dominance leads to dominance in all other areas.

Also agreed on the SOBs. Bemoan it all you like, but RealPolitik is the reality. Change human nature before you change human politics.

---

In most of the many discussions I had with friends and family
after 9/11, I insisted that there were/are many methods to responding and more than one could succeed and many could fail.

But I emphasized that, almost regardless of success or failure in any other arena, the US must come out of this on good terms with Russia and at least not on bad terms with China.

I've backed off a bit on my Russia stance, but my China view is strengthening.
 
Nyarlathotep said:
Well, I think China would like to emerge and take the old Soviet Union's place as a superpower. Here's what you may find odd, I don't think this is a bad thing. Simply put, as long as the rivalry doesn't escalate into all out war (which it never did with the Soviets, after all) the competition is healthy. Science and technology made great strides during the Cold War as we tried to outdo them and they us. I think the competition was good for smoothing over our internal political differences too, to a point.

Right now, with no strong international rival, I think we risk falling into stagnation and internal bickering. So oddly, a powerful China is good for us, IMO .
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The good thing about the current situation compared to the old is that the USA could get a really good price for the technology from China now.
 
Garrette said:
I also agree with crimresearch. China will not fall apart unless something happens external to their course now. In my decidely layman's opinion, China is on an inexorable road to economic dominance, and economic dominance leads to dominance in all other areas.
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It costs 100K to educate and raise a child up to our standard of living. In order just to get their current population anywhere near us in the next 20 years would require an economy ten times ours just to accomplish this one task. They also don't have any roads throughout most of the country, nor electricity for that matter etc...etc...etc...

They are already losing many of their best minds to the west because of their politics and the fact they crush dissent. They might be advancing economically but they are 100 years or more from getting anywhere near our ballpark.

They are now what they have always been. A formidible regional force that has virtually no ability to project power beyond their borders. They can bluster all they want but I doubt they could beat taiwan in a war without destroying the island and sinking it into the ocean.
 
Vagabond:

I agree that China is currently a regional power only. That is why I said they or on the road...

It seems to me that your argument is based on the assumption that current trends will continue.

The US's current dominance and standard of living do not seem to me to be trends that must necessarily or even probably continue.

Nor does it seem to me that China's lack of infrastructure will remain that way or that its brain drain will continue.

Opportunity begets loyalty and a return of expats.

None of which I can substantively argue for. Just my opinions.
 
Re: Re: Chinese begin to worry U.S. militarily

CapelDodger said:
War would require some particular point of conflict. China emerging as an economic power isn't sufficient cause. It has no need to politically dominate surrounding economies, since it's doing pretty well as it is. Imperialism is sooooo yesterday.
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Not entirely true of them.

The West did turn over Hong Kong, and kept telling itself it was doing The Right Thing by honoring an old treaty.

And then there's Taiwan, another situation where "it's really part of China". In a sense, China doesn't need expansionism because they are already the largest country ever. In the more traditional sense, they are currently in the process of re-inhaling powerful, neighboring Chinese economies -- and for the same old reason as any invasion: to loot the goods.
 
(Nyarlathotep)

Well, I think China would like to emerge and take the old Soviet Union's place as a superpower. Here's what you may find odd, I don't think this is a bad thing. Simply put, as long as the rivalry doesn't escalate into all out war (which it never did with the Soviets, after all) the competition is healthy.

(Iamme)

The Soviet Union and us had mutual respect for one another. Each country had thousands of nuclear warheads. Each had many squadrons of fighter aircraft, hundreds of tanks, etc. The Soviets, at that time, had about 280 million people to our 225 million, or so there abouts. We were supposedly the number one power, but they were a very feared second. And many Americans probably feared they were only second because that's what we were told.


China however has 1.2 billion people. They can exponentially outgain us in population growth. It's scary to consider they have nearly 1 billion more people than we do. (The spread can become worse if we do something to stop illegal Mexiacn immigration. Hey...idea...make deal...free citizenship if they join military?)That is one serious numbers imbalance.

Remember the whimsical post, on some other China thread, where I said that our nuclear weapons would be useless when they start sending all 1.2 billion over here in individual row boats? It sounds silly. It sounds like something to laugh at. But in all seriousness......

I recently heard that it could come to a point betwen us and them that anytime we have some desire to do as we we did in Iraq (like a pre-emptive strike) that we will have to go to the Chinese first in order to get their blessing.

If that country is on the path to grow and develop as the fledgling USA did in it's formative years....look out.

The big question now is, instead of arguing if they really can exceed us as the world's number one super power... *when* is this going to occur and what can we do about it, if anything?

As I understand it, we are the world's number one consumer of goods. On friendly terms, the Chinese market would very much like working with us economically, one would think. One would think...but maybe we should be wary instead. Afterall, 290 million consumers is chump change compared with 1.2 billion if they righted their country enough...raised their entire country's standard of living... that they really did not *need* us as consumers of their products. Instead, they may rather desire to usurp their new found power and...well...wo be us.
 
Yes, India, Grammatron.

Could be scarier. They have 1 billion people and are predicted to actually overtake China. And militarily? All they would have to do is go into combat, hiding behind their sacred cows:D
 
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