China's leader shows his stripes

Tony

Penultimate Amazing
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4165209.stm


When Hu Jintao became head of China's ruling Communist Party in late 2002, the question on everyone's lips was "Who is Hu?"

The answer was that no one knew. Even seasoned observers could barely distinguish him from the other leaders who lined up in business suits beside him as the new Standing Committee of the Politburo.

Some believed Mr Hu's lack of experience, charisma and factional support meant he would remain firmly under the thumb of the man he was replacing, Jiang Zemin.

Others, pointing to reforms he had reportedly made as head of the Communist Youth Corps, said he was a dark horse who could turn out to be China's Gorbachev - he might do for politics what Mr Jiang and before him Deng Xiaoping had done for the economy, and finally free the world's next superpower from its Leninist straitjacket.

But the pundits seem to have been wrong on both counts.

Is this good news for China and the world?
 
Poor old Francis Fukuyama. Whatever he does now, he will always be remembered for The End of History

China hasn't been on a sustainable path recently, so a change is what's needed. China bears watching. From a distance.

For what it's worth, the Taiwanese opinion in Cardiff is against making waves. That's what they're telling me, anyway. It's a win-win for Hu. He demands the Taiwanese not secede, the Taiwanese don't secede, Hu waves this success at the military, nothing changes, good. Things are fine as they are, and war is a bad thing. Ask your grandmother, she knows.

The end-result will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary. A convergence across the whole of China, and very likely some bits beyond. And standard Kremlin-Watcher techniques are not going to be that much use in understanding the process.
 

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