China overtakes U.S. as world's biggest consumer.

[Lavie Enrose]

China overtakes U.S. as world's biggest consumer.

WASHINGTON - China has surpassed the United States to lead the world in the consumption of basic food and industrial goods, a study says.

 

[jay gw]

I can't believe how fast China has turned from a backwards turbulent country led by Mao Tse Tung into (what appears to be) a progressive power.

Very weird.

 

[BPSCG]

How long before, with their new-found wealth, they become a net importer of consumer goods, and as a result, start running up trade deficits like the U.S.?

Now if they can become a liberal democracy at the same speed, that will be real cause for rejoicing. I'm concerned that they may decide to follow the Singapore model, however; free-market capitalism combined with coercive government. For a small city-state like Singapore, it's an interesting abberation. For a world power like China, it's disturbing.

 

[Jocko]

I can't believe how fast China has turned from a backwards turbulent country led by Mao Tse Tung into (what appears to be) a progressive power.

Very weird.

Progressive is being charitable, but an economic powerhouse to be sure. I, for one, am glad to lose the title if for no other reason than certain posters here can now redirect their venom at the new number-one consumer.

What a relief.

 

[Magyar]

I can't believe how fast China has turned from a backwards turbulent country led by Mao Tse Tung into (what appears to be) a progressive power.

Very weird.
____________________________________________________

Well considering that the Chinese economy has the Chinese Govt. looking out for their best interest (finanical, not freedom) AND the political and financial power of the US Govt., US tax dollars in addition to the financial interest of virtually EVERY US corp. looking out for their best interest. I don't really find it all the weird.


As for how long before they become a net importer - well considering that something like half of the Chinese populace still lives in what amounts to 19th century rural farming ecomomy I rather doubt that they have any effect on current economy. I think if current trends continue - national debt, health care issues, and continued political discourse in the US - I think the US will have long ceased to exist as we know it, before that reality becomes an issue for China.

 

[tedly]

This was an important data point in Gwynn Dyer's last talk here in Regina, and figures large in his last book Future: Tense (a very good, very scary read)

He referred, in his talk, to this study by Goldman Sachs.Global Economics review which predicts that "Of the current G6, only the US and Japan may be among the six largest economies in US dollar terms in 2050." They come in 2nd and 4th.

The times they are a changin.

 

[tedly]

How long before, with their new-found wealth, they become a net importer of consumer goods, and as a result, start running up trade deficits like the U.S.?

Now if they can become a liberal democracy at the same speed, that will be real cause for rejoicing. I'm concerned that they may decide to follow the Singapore model, however; free-market capitalism combined with coercive government. For a small city-state like Singapore, it's an interesting abberation. For a world power like China, it's disturbing.

Is there a relationship between consumption and deficit? Very few economies can sustain trade deficits without large currency devaluation. The US economy is aberrant in this regard because of large flows of investment, offsetting their trade and budget deficits.

Can you show a necessary relationship between capitalism and democracy? Free markets survive very well under authoritarian regimes, like Germany and Italy in the '30s and China for the last 20 years. Other examples are available and left as an excercise for the class.

 

[Bjorn]

Very few economies can sustain trade deficits without large currency devaluation. The US economy is aberrant in this regard because of large flows of investment, offsetting their trade and budget deficits.

I'm not sure if it is. Have you seen the changes between Euro and Dollars during the last five years?

 

[Lavie Enrose]

Many people in China now have more money to spend, and they are buying the same consumer items people in the U.S. buy: refrigerators, televisions, cell phones, electronics. I think the people of China know the kind of life they want, and I wonder will they be able to achieve it under Chinese Communist rule?

 

[BPSCG]

Many people in China now have more money to spend, and they are buying the same consumer items people in the U.S. buy: refrigerators, televisions, cell phones, electronics. I think the people of China know the kind of life they want, and I wonder will they be able to achieve it under Chinese Communist rule?

I think it gets back to my earlier question: Can a free-market economy thrive under a coercive government on a scale larger than Singapore?

I don't fear a wealthy, free China - I'd welcome it, in fact. But a wealthy China with no respect for human rights is truly terrifying.

 

[Lavie Enrose]

I think it gets back to my earlier question: Can a free-market economy thrive under a coercive government on a scale larger than Singapore?

I don't fear a wealthy, free China - I'd welcome it, in fact. But a wealthy China with no respect for human rights is truly terrifying.

Yes, it remains to be seen if China can sustain this economic boom.

And there may also be a high human cost to China's growing economy:

China mine explosion death toll reaches 210

But observers say the new safety regulations are often ignored because of lack of education or enforcement, especially as mine owners face pressure under China's booming economy to produce more fuel.

 

[Orsino]

Wow! And it only took four times as many of them to match our consumption.

 

[H3LL]

But a wealthy China with no respect for human rights is truly terrifying.

I'll bite.

I'm keen for information. Do you have any examples that are:

A) 21st century.
B) Corroborated by independent witnesses.
C) Don't have parallel examples in the USA.
D) Have no active policy to correct.

I'm keen to hear the basis for such a sweeping statement and I might learn something I'm unaware of.

 

[SlippyToad]

Yes, it remains to be seen if China can sustain this economic boom.

Chances are they can't. Every time I read about their banking system I have these blinding flashbacks to reading about the Depression. I can only hope that the world's economy as a whole is structured in such a way that we can weather the collapse of theirs.

However, how much of America's debt is propped up by Chinese investments? That's a scary thought.

And there may also be a high human cost to China's growing economy:

China mine explosion death toll reaches 210

I couldn't help but have yet another flashback when I looked at that headline (without even reading the story); about Chinese railroad workers in the 1800's, setting dynamite to dig tunnels . . .well, the historical imagry is of the railworkers being too impatient to even wait for them to clear the blast before setting it off. I find it disheartening to think that things are still the same 150 years later.

 

[Drooper]

China overtakes U.S. as world's biggest consumer.

Hmmmm. China's income is rising rapidly and hence it's ability to consume is as well.

However, this claim fills me with skepticism (even ignoring the source and the apparent political thrust of the article).

Me thinks it feels like case of dubious stats. At best it is might be one possible interpretation of something that can many different interpretations.

 

[Lavie Enrose]

Re: Re: China overtakes U.S. as world's biggest consumer.

Me thinks it feels like case of dubious stats. At best it is might be one possible interpretation of something that can many different interpretations.

Read the Earth Policy Institute report (the news article links to it), and tell us your interpretation of the data they use to come to their conclusions. It is always good to hear different opinions on something like this.

 

[Drooper]

Re: Re: Re: China overtakes U.S. as world's biggest consumer.

Read the Earth Policy Institute report (the news article links to it), and tell us your interpretation of the data they use to come to their conclusions. It is always good to hear different opinions on something like this.

Well, my point is this.

China has about 4 times as many mouths as Americans, so there are a lot of food types they are going to consumer more of - in particular among the main food groups

Protein - meat
Carbs - Grains (including rice!!)
etc.

So my point on that issue is so what?


Other areas, such as steel, the consumption data includes intermediate demand. So steel is used as an input to manufactured goods that are exported to other countries. So imagine a car made out of steel that is exported to the US (say). Who is doing the consuming of the steel? Final demand is down to US consumption of the car, which includes the steel in its cost.


And finally, I don't see what the point is here.

-Different countries consume different things in different proportion.
-China is a developing country with a large populatoin and will overtake the US in terms of aggregate income and consumption at some point in the future.

It just seems like this "research" is a complete waste of time and effort, riddled with conceptual problems and it tells us absolutely nothing worth knowing.

 

[a_unique_person]

Progressive is being charitable, but an economic powerhouse to be sure. I, for one, am glad to lose the title if for no other reason than certain posters here can now redirect their venom at the new number-one consumer.

What a relief.

I call unsustainable. The world has no room to hold to economies as big as the US, and not a per China per capita as wealthy as the US.

https://www4.indymedia.org.uk/en/2005/02/305402.html

Rampant smuggling of illegal timber from Indonesia to China is a billion dollar trade threatening the last remaining intact tropical forests in the Asia-Pacific region, the Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) and Telapak revealed at a press conference today in Jakarta.

A new report released by EIA/Telapak, entitled “The Last Frontier”, exposes the international criminal syndicates behind the massive looting of merbau trees from Indonesia’s Papua Province. Merbau, a valuable hardwood used mainly for flooring, is being smuggled out of Papua at a rate of around 300,000 cubic metres of logs every month to feed China’s timber processing industry. China’s economic boom has led to it becoming the largest buyer of illegal timber in the world.

EIA/Telapak investigations into merbau smuggling have led from the forests of Papua, to middlemen in Jakarta, Singapore and Hong Kong, and finally to the rapidly expanding timber processing factories of China.

Illegal logging in Papua typically involves the collusion of the Indonesian military, the involvement of Malaysian logging gangs, and the exploitation of indigenous communities. The profits are vast as local communities only receive around US$10 for each cubic metre of merbau felled on their land, while the same logs fetch as much as US$270 per cubic metre in China.

M. Yayat Afianto of Telapak said: “Papua has become the main illegal logging hotspot in Indonesia. The communities of Papua are paid a pittance for trees taken from their land, while timber dealers in Jakarta, Singapore and Hong Kong are banking huge profits. This massive timber theft of Indonesia’s last pristine forests has got to be stopped.”

EIA/Telapak undercover investigations revealed a network of middlemen and brokers responsible for arranging shipment of the illegal logs from Indonesia to China. These powerful syndicates pay around US$200,000 per shipment in bribes to ensure the contraband logs are not intercepted in Indonesian waters, as Indonesia currently bans the export of logs.

The majority of merbau logs stolen from Papua are destined for the Chinese port of Zhangjiagang, near Shanghai. This port has become one of the largest tropical log trading centres in the world, with timber worth more than half a billion dollars arriving each year from South America, Africa and South-East Asia. Merbau logs arriving in the port from Indonesia are cleared through customs using false Malaysian paperwork to disguise their true origin, in violation of Chinese law.

The logs are then transported to the nearby town of Nanxun, China’s main centre for the manufacture of wooden flooring. This town only had a handful of flooring factories five years ago, now there are more than 500 being supplied by over 200 sawmills cutting only merbau logs. Every minute of every working day the Nanxun factories process one merbau log into flooring.

Papua just can't sustain that rate of logging.

 

[Lavie Enrose]

Chinese consumer to displace US consumer by 2014: CSFB study (12/09/04)

Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) said in a study that the Chinese consumers will likely have displaced the US consumers as the engine of the growth in the global economy by 2014.

The study, made by CSFB's global equity strategy team and released on Dec. 8, forecasts the US dollar value of Chinese consumption spending in 10 years will represent 37 percent of the U.S. and 11 percent of global consumption spending, versus 9 percent and 3 percent respectively in 2004.

For 2004, the CSFB estimates that the US dollar value of Chinese household consumption spending as 704 billion US dollars and the number is likely to increase to 3,726 billion US dollars in 2014.

The study also projects that there will be 151 million Chinese urban households earning more than 10,000 US dollars per year by 2014 verus 4 million at 2003 year end.

Honathan Garner, managing director and global co-ordinator of China Research at CSFB said "the rise of the Chinese consumers will present dramatically enhanced opportunities and challenges for consumer-facing companies worldwide over the next 10 years and beyond."

The study provides conclusions from a proprietary consumer survey based on interviews with 2,700 people in eight major Chinese cities in September, 2004. The survey collected individual and household data on a range of products and services as well as general information on income and attitudes.

The survey finds that average personal income has risen 24 percent in the last three years, most rapidly for younger people.

 

[Lavie Enrose]

Expert: China overtakes US as top consumer

It will only be a matter of time before China, the world's most populous nation, overtakes the United States in the use of personal computers.

The number of PCs in China are doubling every 28 months, the report said.

"China's eclipse of the United States as a consumer nation should be seen as another milestone along the path of its evolution as a world economic leader," Lester Brown, the institute's president, told reporters.

"China is no longer just a developing country," he said. "It is an emerging economic superpower, one that is writing economic history," said Brown, a respected environmental analyst.

Among the big three grains, China leads in the consumption of both wheat and rice, and trails the United States only in corn use.

China's 2004 intake of 64 million tonnes of meat has climbed far above the 38 million tonnes consumed in the United States, where the hamburger-eating habit is a defining element of the country's lifestyle.

China's steel usage -- a barometer of industrial development -- is now more than twice that of the United States: 258 million tonnes to 104 million tonnes in 2003.

Although US oil consumption is triple that of China's -- 20.4 million barrels per day to 6.5 million barrels in 2004, use in China has more than doubled, Brown said.

But Brown hastened to add that there was a downside to China's insatiable appetite for raw materials to fuel its unstoppable economy, saying it was driving up not only commodity prices but ocean shipping rates as well.

The Chinese consuming prowess also would deal yet another blow to the United States, which suffers a massive trade deficit with the Asian giant and is heavily dependent on Chinese capital to underwrite its fast-growing debt.