Below is an e-mail that I just sent:
Dear Mr. Randi and Mr. Wagg,
I note with interest your revisions to the Randi Foundation Challenge. In general, I think they're positive, but I see no mention that you intend to challenge Dean Radin or another prominent parapsychologist regarding what to me is the most intriguing area of parapsychology; namely, ganzfeld experiments. According to Radin, at p. 120 of his recent book "Entangled Minds":
"From 1974 through 2004 a total of 88 ganzfeld experiments reporting 1,008 hits in 3,145 trials were conducted. The combined hit rate was 32% as compared to the chance-expected 25%. This 7% above-chance effect is associated with odds against chance of 29,000,000,000,000,000,000 (or 29 quintillion) to 1."
Now, I'm sure that you don't agree with Radin's analysis, but as has been discussed on this thread -- http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=70950&page=2&highlight=ganzfeld -- even a more neutral analysis suggests a possible 27% hit rate. What I would suggest the Randi Foundation do is challenge Radin or any other prominent parapsychologist involved in ganzfeld experiments to produce at least a 27% hit rate over thousands of trials. About 10,500 trials would be necessary for an experiment performing at a 27% success rate where a 25% success rate would be expected to demonstrate with 99.9999% probability that the success was not due to chance. This, of course, would be time-consuming, but one Randi Forum participant, Ben Tilly, states: "If someone truly wishes to challenge with a ganzfeld experiment, I'm willing to volunteer to write a computer program to allow the experiment to proceed without active supervision. That should reduce the work on the volunteers enough to make supervision doable." See -- http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?p=2253971#post2253971
So, I hope you will seriously consider this suggestion. I recognize that Radin and other parapsychologists involved in ganzfeld experiments are not as well-known to the public as stage performers such as Sylvia Browne and John Edward, but the odds of any stage performer accepting the Randi Foundation Challenge are close to zero. On the other hand, I believe some parapsychologist will accept the Challenge if there is a reasonable ganzfeld protocol.
Dear Mr. Randi and Mr. Wagg,
I note with interest your revisions to the Randi Foundation Challenge. In general, I think they're positive, but I see no mention that you intend to challenge Dean Radin or another prominent parapsychologist regarding what to me is the most intriguing area of parapsychology; namely, ganzfeld experiments. According to Radin, at p. 120 of his recent book "Entangled Minds":
"From 1974 through 2004 a total of 88 ganzfeld experiments reporting 1,008 hits in 3,145 trials were conducted. The combined hit rate was 32% as compared to the chance-expected 25%. This 7% above-chance effect is associated with odds against chance of 29,000,000,000,000,000,000 (or 29 quintillion) to 1."
Now, I'm sure that you don't agree with Radin's analysis, but as has been discussed on this thread -- http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=70950&page=2&highlight=ganzfeld -- even a more neutral analysis suggests a possible 27% hit rate. What I would suggest the Randi Foundation do is challenge Radin or any other prominent parapsychologist involved in ganzfeld experiments to produce at least a 27% hit rate over thousands of trials. About 10,500 trials would be necessary for an experiment performing at a 27% success rate where a 25% success rate would be expected to demonstrate with 99.9999% probability that the success was not due to chance. This, of course, would be time-consuming, but one Randi Forum participant, Ben Tilly, states: "If someone truly wishes to challenge with a ganzfeld experiment, I'm willing to volunteer to write a computer program to allow the experiment to proceed without active supervision. That should reduce the work on the volunteers enough to make supervision doable." See -- http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?p=2253971#post2253971
So, I hope you will seriously consider this suggestion. I recognize that Radin and other parapsychologists involved in ganzfeld experiments are not as well-known to the public as stage performers such as Sylvia Browne and John Edward, but the odds of any stage performer accepting the Randi Foundation Challenge are close to zero. On the other hand, I believe some parapsychologist will accept the Challenge if there is a reasonable ganzfeld protocol.