Bush(wild)fires. Leave or defend?

lionking

In the Peanut Gallery
lionking
Joined
Jan 23, 2007
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Location
Melbourne
In the wake of Victoria's devastating fires last February, the government has changed it's policy from "stay and defend if you can" to "leave the night before" in extreme code red conditions.

http://www.skynews.com.au/national/article.aspx?id=381827

Victorians will be told to leave their homes on days when the fire threat approaches that of Black Saturday and is deemed to be catastrophic.
Under a new national fire danger rating system unveiled on Sunday, residents will be given a 'Code Red' or 'Catastrophic' fire danger warning on such days.
The Victorian government advises anyone living in bushfire prone areas under such conditions 'to leave the night before or early in the morning'.
There is no advice to stay in a home under the highest rating - even if it is well-prepared and residents plan on actively defending it.
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I can understand this advice, but can, in the light of this new classification of bushfire threats, see government erring on the side of caution and advising people in fire zones (like me) to leave every time there are 40C days with hot northerly winds.

I fear an over-reaction. Comments, particularly from Californians who face similar threats.
 
I suspect it has something to do with liability- this way no-one can say "You told my uncle Jimmy to defend his house, and now he's been killed! Compensation, thanks!".

But you're right in that those conditions will mean a lot of 'false' evacuations this year, which will lead to complaints about the guidelines being too conservative, too costly, too hard. So next year they'll be relaxed and someone will die and we will be back on the merry-go-round. I think the difficultly lies in the impossibility of accurately predicting the severity, speed and direction of a fire.
 
I live in an area of California that has had four major fires in the last 18 months. Two of these fires involved evacuations in urban areas. In no circumstance is an evacuation warning given in the face of a fire danger, only in the case of an actual fire threatening an area with houses. Given the frequency of Southern California fires, I don't think anyone would get out on the basis of the threat of a fire. Hell, it is difficult to get people to get out under a "mandatory" (the fire department cannot FORCE someone to leave) evacuation order.

I agree, lionking, that evacuation under potential fire threats is not likely to work. On the other hand, when fires do occur, it is really selfish to force the fire department to come to the rescue of some idiot who refused to evacuate given adequate warning. Such rescue efforts put other lives at risk. You wanna stand and fight something hundreds of times bigger than you...fine. Just don't expect me to put my own life at risk to save your sorry *** .

"You" being the generic, not specific, "you". :)
 
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lionking said:
I can understand this advice, but can, in the light of this new classification of bushfire threats, see government erring on the side of caution and advising people in fire zones (like me) to leave every time there are 40C days with hot northerly winds.

I fear an over-reaction. Comments, particularly from Californians who face similar threats.
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I have some family in california. Usually there is an actual fire before people are told to evacuate.

A middle ground is to get ready to evacuate by having a car in a safe place ready to go at all times. Although you shouldn't wait till the last minute to evacuate or you may find your escape route unexpectedly cut off.

Perhaps it would be better to move to a less fire-prone area? How much does fire insurance cost where you live?
 
Puppycow said:
Perhaps it would be better to move to a less fire-prone area? How much does fire insurance cost where you live?
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Fair point, but if I won Lotto I would still live in my district. I'm looking out the window now and all I can see is trees, yet we are only just over 30 kms from the city centre.

I haven't had my insurance renewal yet, but expect a big increase. I'm happy to pay it.
 
Puppycow said:
I have some family in california. Usually there is an actual fire before people are told to evacuate.
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To clarify, a fire threat is one where there is already an actual fire that might move over residential areas, given adverse weather conditions. Not "there might be a fire".
 
On the TV news tonight the fire chief said that in extreme conditions he would be advising people in bushfire zones to move out up to four days earlier.

Good luck with that. I might change my occupation to burgler.
 
Puppycow said:
I have some family in california. Usually there is an actual fire before people are told to evacuate.

A middle ground is to get ready to evacuate by having a car in a safe place ready to go at all times. Although you shouldn't wait till the last minute to evacuate or you may find your escape route unexpectedly cut off.

Perhaps it would be better to move to a less fire-prone area? How much does fire insurance cost where you live?
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The only way to find a less fire prone area in Australia is either moving right into the city, or into the desert, cause everywhere else gets bushfires.
 
lionking said:
I'm looking out the window now and all I can see is trees fuel.
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Fixed for you?

Don't get me wrong, it's not meant to offend, but I'm not sure I could have such a sanguine attitude... I love trees (and Australia), but we are surrounded by the soggy, barely-flammable British kind...
 
big-E said:
Fixed for you?

Don't get me wrong, it's not meant to offend, but I'm not sure I could have such a sanguine attitude... I love trees (and Australia), but we are surrounded by the soggy, barely-flammable British kind...
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Fair enough. We have been here for about 35 years and are aware of the risks. The benefits outweigh them IMO.

Our mega yacht could also sink, but we live with that. ;)
 
arthwollipot said:
To clarify, a fire threat is one where there is already an actual fire that might move over residential areas, given adverse weather conditions. Not "there might be a fire".
Click to expand...
Aha, that makes a big difference. Here we have "alerts" which indicate troublesome conditions, "advisory evacuations" where the fire department suggests you get out and "mandatory evacuations" where the police TELL you to get out. But, as I mentioned, even under a mandatory, one cannot be forced out.
 
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