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Bill Munns Calculates Probability of Patterson/Gimlin film Being faked at 0.00005

marlborough

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marlborough
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You can now add self proclaimed "probability statistician" to his arsenal of alleged professional endeavors that already included engineer, forensic expert and anthropologist. In his expert opinion, he calculates that any chance of the PGF being a hoax as being low as 1 in 20000.

:hypnotizelink:hypnotize

In fact, it looks like Bills gone totally ape with Bigfoot particularly at a well known squatch haunt . He has monopolized the entire forum with his expertise. 27 out 32 threads were started by BILL link. There is talk of Bill speculating on what Patty ate for breakfast that fateful day in 1967 just by the way it walks. And to think, I wasted 4 years of my life earning an engineering degree.

Just some of the ground breaking lecture threads Bill has initiated. I suggest we start off with "Patterson Gimlin Film Beginner's guide-A link to a Guide which can help people new to this discussion." for us newbies.

1/ Creature Suit Analysis Part 10 - Flab
Bill Munns study of soft tissue appearances in the PG Film

2/ Creature Suit Analysis Part 6 - Comparative Anatomy
A study of a human figure intended to relicate the PG film figure

3/ Patterson Gimlin Film Beginner's guide
A link to a Guide which can help people new to this discussion.

4/ Creature Suit Analysis Part 9 - A Study of Probability
Bill Munns notes on the probability the PG Film is hoaxed

5/ Creature Suits Analysis Part 2 - Under the Fur
Bill Munns notes on muscle suits and other anatomical parts

6/ Can rebuilding Patty prove anything? * 12
Bill Munns notes on what could be proved.

7/ Film Final Analysis by Bill Munns

8/ Creature Suit Analysis Part 11 - The next Step * 12
Bill Munns notes on a PG Film image research study

9/ Creature Suit Analysis Part 12 - Hip seams
Bill Munns notes on seams of a two piece fur suit

10/ Creature Suit Analysis Part Five Building Patty
Bill Munns notes on building a Patty Replica

11/ Creature Suit Analysis Part 8 Neck Hackles
Bill Munns study of neck shadows on the PG Film figure

12/ Creature Suit Analysis Part 7 - Neck seams
Bill Munns' study of fur suit neck seams and folds

13/ Creature Suit Analysis Part Four Extra Hands
a look at helping hands, literally anf figuratively

14/ Creature Suit Analysis Part Three The Mime inside
Bill Munns notes on the difficulties of wearing a suit

15/ Creature Suit Analysis Part 1 Fur

16/ PGF Hoax Analysis - Part Six - Makeup Artist Opinions
A series of individual topic discussions

17/ PGF Hoax Analysis - Part Two - Film Processing
A series of individual topic discussions

18/ PGF Hoax Analysis - Part Five - Roger's Hollywood Connections
A series of individual topic discussions

19/ PGF Hoax Analysis - Part One - Editing and Splicing
A series of individual topic discussions

20/ PGF Hoax Analysis - Part Four - Film Provenance and Copies
A series of individual topic discussions

21/ PGF Hoax Analysis - Part Three - Bob Heironimous
A series of individual topic discussions

22/ Amazing revelation about the PGF
we all figured it wrong

23/ PGF Hoax, One Coherent Story how it was done

24/ Patterson Documentary Footage Analysis
Summing up the overall analysis of this footage

25/ UEC (Unidentified edge coding)
Something curious in Patterson's film

26/ Unidentified Man in film
Anybody have thoughts on the identity of this man

27/ Film Grain Question
Trying to figure out why one image is so grainy
 
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William Parcher calculates the probability of Bill Munns being a weirdo crackpot who is completely wrong about the identity of the PGF subject and Bigfoot in general at 99% (margin of error 1%).
 
" of course its real Trin, what person , has ever moved like that...in the history of people."

- Ricky, Trailer Park Boys.

Come on people, the simple fact remains that if there was enough to breed there would be enough to notice. Otherwise we would be getting weird imbred bigfeet as time went on.

Man, where are the people who believe in dragons? At least dragons are neat. Bigfoot just seems straight up boring.

I mean really, what do you want to see, some dragon majestically flying through the air, maybe breathing a little fire? Or some ape that's claim to fame is walking around like it is bored all the time?
 
It's amazing to me the (seeming) huge volume of 'work' he's done analyzing the PGF. I won't pretend to have done even 1/10th of that amount of work vetting anything Bigfoot, ever. But wouldn't it have been better for him to spend such time (instead) attempting a real & proper re-creation of the PGF subject? I mean, that's supposedly his true area of expertise, right? Appears he's been doing so much 'science' lately he thinks he's been transformed from an under-appreciated costume maker to being the grand-poobah of a new Bigfoot ThinkTank™. At least that's what it seems he's trying to make everyone believe.

I'm still not sure how much we're supposed to appreciate the notion that if a Hollywood™ costumer thinks the PGF is not just a clever suit, then it's not just a clever suit. Ya don't say?

So anyway, would Bill care to properly explain why the hallowed PGF doesn't have any number of 'contemporaries' (so-to-speak) by now? In 43 years, wouldn't there be at least one more similar (or even better) film by now if the creature actually existed? Yet, not even one has showed up. Doesn't the fact it's never been duplicated ANYWHERE BY ANYONE FILMING ANYTHING THAT RESEMBLES A LIVE CREATURE OR A COSTUME give some in-your-face credence to the possibility that Roger Patterson really was as smart and clever as you refuse to believe he was?

I guess I'm in awe of the fact he's publicly proclaimed the real and true existence of a newly 'discovered' species of hairy-wild-ape-man SIMPLY by re-manipulating Microsoft Paint™ (in ways its mother never intended). To me that's amazing! I hear next up is the Munn's Anti-gravity Machine® (MAM™) that uses a high pitched dog whistle and two safety pins as part of its 'engine'. Truly amazing stuff. :eek:
 
HarryHenderson said:
But wouldn't it have been better for him to spend such time (instead) attempting a real & proper re-creation of the PGF subject?
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Now why would he want to do the very thing that many proponents claim would make them stop believing in the PGF/further strengthen skeptical arguments? Not to say that proponents wouldn't offer excuses like "Just because you can recreate it doesn't mean that it doesn't exist" or some variation of the argument made here in the event of one.

Since we're dusting off old Bill stuff, check out his "Beginner's Guide to the Patterson-Gimlin Film."
 
AtomicMysteryMonster said:
Now why would he want to do the very thing that many proponents claim would make them stop believing in the PGF/further strengthen skeptical arguments? Not to say that proponents wouldn't offer excuses like "Just because you can recreate it doesn't mean that it doesn't exist" or some variation of the argument made here in the event of one.

Since we're dusting off old Bill stuff, check out his "Beginner's Guide to the Patterson-Gimlin Film."
Click to expand...

Even the 'footers have realized that this guy has a world-class ego. Perhaps world-record. Of course, he can be an expert on probability. Why not?

He starts dozens of threads, and whines with delusions of persecution when anyone questions his ideas. If you hold your nose, though, and ignore his "deductions," he does provide enough useful data that his overall effect is to help debunk the PGF and Bigfoot. Of course, he doesn't realize that.
 
AMM wrote:
Now why would he want to do the very thing that many proponents claim would make them stop believing in the PGF/further strengthen skeptical arguments?
Click to expand...



The joke is on the "skeptics", Atomic....every 'Patty re-creation' attempt just furthers/strengthens the case of the Footers...:)...that Patty cannot be replicated...



Enter Mr. Morris...(Stunning....a virtual TWIN to Patty)...


RuggedBob5.jpg




Enter Mr. Blevins...(WOW :jaw-dropp ...He 'nailed it' with the feet)...


BlevinsPattySuit3B.jpg




Enter Mr. D-"It's easy-I did-it-on-my-lunch-break"-Foot.....(Note: The Upper Cranium has 'Room For Rent'....if anyone's interested)...


DfootsJoke1.jpg




Of course.....while Dfoot crafted a 'sculpture' of Patty's form.....he failed...( :) )....to replicate her extreme upper-torso width.....and the widening of the body, at the hips...


DfootLaugh3.jpg




Details....details...pesky little details...


I calculate the probability at approximately 100%....that Dfoot's "recreation" of Patty......"D-sucks". :)

Anyone else wanna give it a try??......and fail...miserably, laughably...:)
 
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Interesting that the number of new bigfoot/alien videos is inversely proportional to the number of video cameras in circulation
 
SweatyYeti said:
The joke is on the "skeptics", Atomic....every 'Patty re-creation' attempt just furthers/strengthens the case of the Footers...:)...that Patty cannot be replicated...
Click to expand...

Ahh, yes, clearly the lack of a bigfoot anywhere in the history of man strengthens the case of the footers. Heck, bigfoot is all but proven at this point in sweaty's bizzarro world, lol.

Hey sweaty.....where's bigfoot? Who is the joke on again? That would be you. How does it feel knowing Bob Gimlin and the other members of the good old boy bigfoot network laugh their heads off behind closed doors at footers like yourself after the lights go down, and the crowds have gone home?
 
Howie Felterbush said:
"Longtabber, please pick up the white courtesy phone. Longatabber PE, white courtesy phone. Thank you."

The guy was a fraud and a jag, but it was fun to watch him yank Bill's chain.
Click to expand...

maybe that's why he knew how to yank Bill's chain so effectively.
 
Toke said:
How did he calculate it?
Sales records of gorilla suits?
Click to expand...
:D That would have been a better basis and surely more precise.
sadhatter said:
" of course its real Trin, what person , has ever moved like that...in the history of people."
- Ricky, Trailer Park Boys.
Click to expand...
:D Case closed.
xblade said:
Ahh, yes, clearly the lack of a bigfoot anywhere in the history of man strengthens the case of the footers. Heck, bigfoot is all but proven at this point in sweaty's bizzarro world, lol.
Hey sweaty.....where's bigfoot? Who is the joke on again? That would be you...
Click to expand...
:D You know you'll be proven wrong 'soon enough'. He said so in the other thread. <waiting>

As for a little more comment on Munns' analysis, I hadn't in-fact read his 'probability article' totally (I'm too easily bored with his false humility) before my post above. Having done so now, I can say without hesitation that he's completely ******* NUTS.

To wit...
Bill Munns said:
...Assigning any numeric weight or ratio (the odds, in gambling) for a usual or probable outcome is obviously conjectural at best. Anyone can assign any odds they choose...
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Really? Are you ******* kidding me Bill Munns? You're not just nuts, you're stupid too. Seriously, you have no clue what 'odds' actually are?

His entire (stupid and doomed to fail) premise is based on his arbitrarily absconding a so-called 'legal principle' called Presumption of Regularity. Yes, because that's how all 'probablities' are determined, how 'regular' one thinks things should 'show up' in any one situation. As he states above, odds are just random and capricious numbers pulled out of other people's asses when needed. His entire premise is so laughable; stated simply, in his (oh-so-humble) opinion, Hollywood™ creature suits aren't and weren't regularly made or used the way it appears the PGF's was, so that means it's a REAL Bigfoot. Say what?

Ya know, my own 'love of science' isn't even close to what it is with some people here, but geezus h...pulling LITERALLY random numbers out of the air, stating they're "just for illustrative purposes", then proclaiming those numbers don't lie, they prove the possibility the PGF being hoax at 'near zero'. NEAR ZERO! Amazing!
 
So, this 'skepticism'...it's a way of talking about bigfoot, UFOs and Jeebus while maintaining an air of superiority?
 
jiggeryqua said:
So, this 'skepticism'...it's a way of talking about bigfoot, UFOs and Jeebus while maintaining an air of superiority?
Click to expand...

I as a skeptic maintain an air of ''show me the evidence'' I would like to see Mr. Munn´s worksheets.
 
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